Agreed. She made it look easy. And everyone is excited about Valby, but the Stillwater course is built for a runner like Tuohy. she is a great hill runner with a kick way better than Valby.
I would agree with this, except I would put Chmiel in their as well...probably ahead of Mercy.
I didn't see the race, but looking at splits it seemed like Bush hung back at the beginning and ran a very controlled race. She also ran a 3min last km I believe. Which is great to see.
Seymour seemed to struggle through the middle section...again, just looking at split times
It’s difficult to have a tight spread when Katelyn and Kelsey are both low sticks. They could go 1-2 at nationals if they both have the race of their lives. They know how to run smart and are accustomed to super difficult courses like what to expect come November. Even if NC State’s 3-5 are 20+ seconds back of KT and KC, the 1-2 punch scoring possibly 3-15 points combined as low sticks helps tremendously.
It will surely be interesting to see how Valby handles the hills on the OSU course. Seems like her strategy would be to blow everyone out the gate and create a gap that can’t be covered. Mercy was less than 10 back of her at SEC which makes me think that if Tuohy can keep contact she definitely still has a good shot at winning or at least top 3.
Brooke Rauber had an awesome race today too! Very exciting to see her have a breakthrough race since it seemed like she had a bit of a plateau for a while.
Yeah to me she looked tired mid way during the race a bit. It may have been an off day, maybe they are still in heavy training. She closed nutty much, much faster as well. Still, her time was super impressive for a *real* 6k course with some hills.
Bush saw OSU course at 2020 nats. Agree NC state not showing great trend, and ok state and bama now have potential 4, 5 runners, and NM about 10 deep, but if kt, chmiel, bush, Seymour and starliper run well, NC st can still win nats.
For individuals, appears to be a battle of Tuohy, Valby, McCabe, Roe and Chelangat.
I'm a bit concerned about Bush on a hilly course (she didn't run in 2021 on OK St course) but she's been very consistent and closes well. Seymour hasn't been fantastic the last 2 meets but showed promise at ND so a good performance has at least been seen which matters. There's absolutely no gaurentee Starliper even runs nationals right now or can maintain fitness even if she's healthy enough to run. BUT Rauber came up HUGE today and Quarzo has been looking impressive this season (NCAA 10k qualifier so strength course may suit her).
There's a lot of uncertainty with NC St right now, but I feel the odds of everything going wrong is low. I think there's less variabity with KT/Chmiel and they will be low scoring anyways. If Bush and Seymour both run to their potential, it's hard not seeing a #5 be good enough to clinch the title BUT if Seymour is still off and Starliper doesn't run or isn't fit, even if Bush is a solid #3, they may likely need BOTH their #4, #5 in the 25-35 range to win nationals (if Bush is say ~15-20, KT/Chmiel are top 8). Maybe that's Rauber, Quarzo, Moreno, or wherever Seymour or maybe Starliper end up. Who knows? Nationals will be exciting.
the acc championship course was wayyyy hilly than Nuttycombe, they have big hills and track like turns and big downhills etc.
its a very odd looking course and the weather was just the same at nuttycombe, cold and windy
Thanks...that's surprising. Looking at splits and times I would have expected it to be a flatter course than Nutty.
There were a lot of ups and downs, and rapid swings from up to down and vice versa. The terrain was a bit rougher than Nuttycombe as well. I am surprised the times were as fast as they were. Many were 30-40 seconds faster than they were at Nuttycombe. But the ND runners clearly pushed the pace some at the start to get it going.
Bush saw OSU course at 2020 nats. Agree NC state not showing great trend, and ok state and bama now have potential 4, 5 runners, and NM about 10 deep, but if kt, chmiel, bush, Seymour and starliper run well, NC st can still win nats.
For individuals, appears to be a battle of Tuohy, Valby, McCabe, Roe and Chelangat.
I'm a bit concerned about Bush on a hilly course (she didn't run in 2021 on OK St course) but she's been very consistent and closes well. Seymour hasn't been fantastic the last 2 meets but showed promise at ND so a good performance has at least been seen which matters. There's absolutely no gaurentee Starliper even runs nationals right now or can maintain fitness even if she's healthy enough to run. BUT Rauber came up HUGE today and Quarzo has been looking impressive this season (NCAA 10k qualifier so strength course may suit her).
There's a lot of uncertainty with NC St right now, but I feel the odds of everything going wrong is low. I think there's less variabity with KT/Chmiel and they will be low scoring anyways. If Bush and Seymour both run to their potential, it's hard not seeing a #5 be good enough to clinch the title BUT if Seymour is still off and Starliper doesn't run or isn't fit, even if Bush is a solid #3, they may likely need BOTH their #4, #5 in the 25-35 range to win nationals (if Bush is say ~15-20, KT/Chmiel are top 8). Maybe that's Rauber, Quarzo, Moreno, or wherever Seymour or maybe Starliper end up. Who knows? Nationals will be exciting.
Reality check here people……I feel like everyone is listening to fake news CNN! Everyone is believing all the hype around NC State. Most people handed them the trophy before the season and now the reality has happened….. injuries, overrated transfers, and overrated program.
The Wolfpack right now is the Alabama team in the last National meet in Stillwater. Alabama had the National champion and runnner and lost the team title to BYU. Tuohy will win, Chmiel may be 2nd or 3rd, but the team will lose. There was over a 35 second gap between Tuohy and Bush, they can’t win with that (and it will be a bigger gap at Stillwater).
And I know I’m Debbie Downer here, but Rauber’s race was not that good, it was good for ACC’s, but is zero impact at a National meet. She is not even in NM top 7. Same with Quarzo. But they were good races for those two, just not good for NC State’s chances of winning in OK.
The only way The Pack wins is if Starliper can be between Kelsey and Bush, and Seymour is behind Bush like the ND race. However, this is unlikely with Starliper’s health and fitness, and Seymour is a little overrated from a CC standpoint. Bottom line is that the Pack is in major trouble and NM is the team to beat. I would say NM, Alabama, and then the Pack if I’m ranking them right now.
Reality check here people……I feel like everyone is listening to fake news CNN! Everyone is believing all the hype around NC State. Most people handed them the trophy before the season and now the reality has happened….. injuries, overrated transfers, and overrated program.
The Wolfpack right now is the Alabama team in the last National meet in Stillwater. Alabama had the National champion and runnner and lost the team title to BYU. Tuohy will win, Chmiel may be 2nd or 3rd, but the team will lose. There was over a 35 second gap between Tuohy and Bush, they can’t win with that (and it will be a bigger gap at Stillwater).
And I know I’m Debbie Downer here, but Rauber’s race was not that good, it was good for ACC’s, but is zero impact at a National meet. She is not even in NM top 7. Same with Quarzo. But they were good races for those two, just not good for NC State’s chances of winning in OK.
The only way The Pack wins is if Starliper can be between Kelsey and Bush, and Seymour is behind Bush like the ND race. However, this is unlikely with Starliper’s health and fitness, and Seymour is a little overrated from a CC standpoint. Bottom line is that the Pack is in major trouble and NM is the team to beat. I would say NM, Alabama, and then the Pack if I’m ranking them right now.
Can you explain how you are using the gap between Bush and Tuohy is a negative for NC State and then saying Alabama will beat them? Dont get me wrong i get New Mexico, but just today Alabamas 2nd Olemomoi was over 20 seconds behind Chelangat and then Tyynismaa in 3rd was 34 seconds back. When most people have Tuohy and possible Chmiel over Chelangat, how is Bama's scoring supposed to be better? Rauber for NC state was 13 seconds behind their 3rd Bush, and Bama's 4th Asekol was 18 seconds behind Bama's 3rd Tyynismaa. Alabama's 5th was over a minute back over their 4th....There's no way you think they beat NC State, even with this roster. You're calling Rauber's race zero impact at the national meet when Bama's 5th won't be in the top 100
Reality check here people……I feel like everyone is listening to fake news CNN! Everyone is believing all the hype around NC State. Most people handed them the trophy before the season and now the reality has happened….. injuries, overrated transfers, and overrated program.
The Wolfpack right now is the Alabama team in the last National meet in Stillwater. Alabama had the National champion and runnner and lost the team title to BYU. Tuohy will win, Chmiel may be 2nd or 3rd, but the team will lose. There was over a 35 second gap between Tuohy and Bush, they can’t win with that (and it will be a bigger gap at Stillwater).
And I know I’m Debbie Downer here, but Rauber’s race was not that good, it was good for ACC’s, but is zero impact at a National meet. She is not even in NM top 7. Same with Quarzo. But they were good races for those two, just not good for NC State’s chances of winning in OK.
The only way The Pack wins is if Starliper can be between Kelsey and Bush, and Seymour is behind Bush like the ND race. However, this is unlikely with Starliper’s health and fitness, and Seymour is a little overrated from a CC standpoint. Bottom line is that the Pack is in major trouble and NM is the team to beat. I would say NM, Alabama, and then the Pack if I’m ranking them right now.
Can you explain how you are using the gap between Bush and Tuohy is a negative for NC State and then saying Alabama will beat them? Dont get me wrong i get New Mexico, but just today Alabamas 2nd Olemomoi was over 20 seconds behind Chelangat and then Tyynismaa in 3rd was 34 seconds back. When most people have Tuohy and possible Chmiel over Chelangat, how is Bama's scoring supposed to be better? Rauber for NC state was 13 seconds behind their 3rd Bush, and Bama's 4th Asekol was 18 seconds behind Bama's 3rd Tyynismaa. Alabama's 5th was over a minute back over their 4th....There's no way you think they beat NC State, even with this roster. You're calling Rauber's race zero impact at the national meet when Bama's 5th won't be in the top 100
Honestly, Alabama may be a stretch on my part, it is a gut feeling that they are going to run well at OK. Plus I think except for Tuohy and Chmiel, the rest of the team is going to have a very bad day because I think the Pack not being prepared for hills on that course is going to kill them the last 1k of the race, just like me it did the last time they were there. They were winning practically the whole race through 5k and there 5th died and they got killed by BYU.
When they won last year I believe they had a 24 second between their 1st (Kelsey) and 5th (Sam). Their gap now is about a minute. So maybe not Alabama but NM will blow them up if Starliper is not healthy ( which she is not)