A 7-person Japanese HS team ran a marathon relay in 2:05:11 - Could Newbury Park do this?

High School Running Distance

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1 year ago 10/11/2022 11:41pm EDT

re: aarick162

aarick162 wrote:
This isn't very difficult to figure out with a little Excel work and using conservative time conversions for NPHS team. I think most on here are overestimating the disadvantage of NPHS' number 6 and 7 runners vs the Japanese 6 and 7 runners given they would only be running a 3k each. Also keep in mind a marathon is run on the road, which will yield closer to track times than those that are seen on a cross country course.
Leg 1 (10 km): 1. Shu Nagamoto 29:04 vs Leo Young (Estimated 28:45) Differential+19 seconds
Leg 2 (3km): 9. Hasegawa? 8:35 vs Cantu: (Conservative estimate: 8:45)
Differential -10 seconds
Leg 3 (8.1075km): 9. Kanno 24:29 vs Lex Young (Estimated 23:14)
Differential +1 minute 15 seconds
Leg 4 (8.0875 km):1. Yamato Yoshida 24:47 vs Aaron Sahlman (Estimated 23:55 - based on current post-injury fitness)
Differential +52 seconds
Leg 5 (3 km): 1. Shogo Iwane 8:37 vs (Shetty 8:50 - estimate) Differential - 13 seconds
Leg 6 (5 km): 2. Yudai Mizuno 14:40 vs (Doshi - 15:00 - estimate) DIfferential - 20 seconds
Leg 7 (5k) 8. Murakami 15:04 (8) vs (Seymour - 15:00 - estimate) Differential - 4 seconds
I have NPHS winning by around 2 minutes. Tried to be conservative when estimating NPHS runners times. Even if Doshi trips and lays on the ground for 20 seconds they still win by a comfortable margin. Last year's NPHS team wins by a even more considerable margin obviously.

I think your numbers are possible. But think about how hard it is to get people to time trial like this. Go look at their 4*1mile and how far off their PRs they were.

1 year ago 10/11/2022 11:49pm EDT

re: It depends

I ran an Ekiden with a team of 7 once. I had the 10k leg. When I got the baton we were in about 18-20th place out of 32. I took the handoff at the same time as 2 other Japanese guys. Within the first couple of minutes 2-3 more guys caught up to our pack and seemed content to run with us. We passed the 1st K in about 2:50. I wasn’t going to run no sub30, much less sub29, so I throttled back a bit, hoping to avoid blowing up.

All 5 of my Japanese friends slowed with me, but after about 15 seconds of this new slower pace, they all started looking around at each other and even talking a little to each other. I couldn’t understand at all what they were saying, but I know it was a variation of “What the h*ll do we do? Sending this American home devastated might look a little rude, but we can’t run this easy tempo pace, right?!?” Finally, after about 15 more seconds of the most awkward racing Ive ever experienced, one of them was like “ah, fvck it”, instantly and effortlessly pulling away. Then, the other 4 went ahead and left me in much the same way.

We ended up finishing like 30th out of 32 teams. Those flippin’ Japanese…. So polite!!!

1 year ago 10/11/2022 11:55pm EDT

re: It depends

I did it based off current team, current fitness levels. Not sure that Hector is training. Haven't seen him in any of the training video footage.

1 year ago 10/12/2022 12:34am EDT

re: fkkfkfkfkf

The Japanese HS team did it as part of an event with 80+ teams competing (link to full results below) where they were pushed the entire race. Are we handicapping the competition by making NPHS do it as a time trial? Might be close then.

nnn.co.jp

第42回日本海駅伝競走大会 -日本海新聞

Link:www.nnn.co.jp/event/ekiden/kiroku-kouk...

1 year ago 10/12/2022 1:40am EDT

re: It depends

It depends wrote:
How about the Newbury park all-time top 7?
top 5 are obviously 3 Youngs and 2 Sahlmans
I think Jace Aschbrenner would make this team. He got top 10 at nxn in 2019.
What about Jeff Wilson from the 90s? I don’t know much about him.
What about Brayden Seymour? The guys he does workouts with shows that he should be finishing much higher than he did at Clovis

If we’re choosing the all-time NP top 7 team based on the current shape these people are in…keep in mind that Aschbrenner almost got beat by Goldstein in this race

ok.milesplit.com

OSU Cowboy Jamboree 2022 - College Results

MileSplits official College Results formatted results for the 2022 OSU Cowboy Jamboree, hosted by Oklahoma State University in Stillwater OK.

Link:ok.milesplit.com/meets/502495-osu-cowb...

Would Dan “sub-9 in high school as the team’s 5th man” Appleford make this squad?

look what he did in his first college race

tfrrs.org

TFRRS | 2022 Roadrunners Invitational - Meet Results

Link:www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/19928/2022_Ro...

Fun fact: Seymour and Goldstein will be at the same college next year. Will be interesting to see who comes out on top in the intrasquad race.

1 year ago 11/28/2022 7:06am EST

re: rojo

NP’s 6th guy was solid at state. 15:39.
Wonder how the 16:20 guy would contribute here.

Seymour needs a better race strategy. He goes out hard all the time

1 year ago 11/28/2022 10:41am EST

re: xcfan2233

xcfan2233 wrote:
This year no, but lets do last years team. Im assuming this is on the road and the course is flat. I think with the carbon plate shoes, the road is fairly close to track times now as evidenced by some of the recent road WRs being faster than peoples track prs (Aregawi 12:49, Kipruto 26:24, and Yehualaw 29:14)
Leg 1 (10K): Lex Young 29:15. Tyrone Gorze ran 29:29 and Lex beat him by 17 seconds over 5,000m so Ill just assume a similar gap at 10K and add a few seconds for the road
Leg 2 (3K): Dev Doshi 8:35. His 3,200 equivalent is 8:25, added 10 seconds for the road
Leg 3 (8.1075K): Colin Sahlman 23:31 (23:11 8K pace). Going to just assume L&L & Colin are in similar 10K shape, and just assume 29:00 10K pace with 2K less.
Leg 4 (8.0875K): Leo Young 23:27 (23:11 8K pace). Same as above
Leg 5 (3K): Hector Martinez 8:45. 8:32 3K equivalent in the 3,200, added some time
Leg 6 (5K): Aaron Sahlman 14:25. Ran 14:14 in an XC race
Leg 7 (5K): Appleford 14:55. 14:44 in XC.
Total Time = 2:02:53 vs 2:05:11
Obviously not everyone will have their best day, so I tried to handicap it by a few seconds each leg. Might have butchered some math in there, but even being conservative NP probably wins. You could handicap these even further and they still win, the 8K legs are the biggest difference. This all changes if the course is hilly or the weather is bad or something.

Dev Doshi at 8:25 3200. Wouldn't that be a national prep record? I haven't even heard of this guy.

1 year ago 11/28/2022 11:40am EST

re: Sally Vix

Sally Vix wrote:
xcfan2233 wrote:
This year no, but lets do last years team. Im assuming this is on the road and the course is flat. I think with the carbon plate shoes, the road is fairly close to track times now as evidenced by some of the recent road WRs being faster than peoples track prs (Aregawi 12:49, Kipruto 26:24, and Yehualaw 29:14)
Leg 1 (10K): Lex Young 29:15. Tyrone Gorze ran 29:29 and Lex beat him by 17 seconds over 5,000m so Ill just assume a similar gap at 10K and add a few seconds for the road
Leg 2 (3K): Dev Doshi 8:35. His 3,200 equivalent is 8:25, added 10 seconds for the road
Leg 3 (8.1075K): Colin Sahlman 23:31 (23:11 8K pace). Going to just assume L&L & Colin are in similar 10K shape, and just assume 29:00 10K pace with 2K less.
Leg 4 (8.0875K): Leo Young 23:27 (23:11 8K pace). Same as above
Leg 5 (3K): Hector Martinez 8:45. 8:32 3K equivalent in the 3,200, added some time
Leg 6 (5K): Aaron Sahlman 14:25. Ran 14:14 in an XC race
Leg 7 (5K): Appleford 14:55. 14:44 in XC.
Total Time = 2:02:53 vs 2:05:11
Obviously not everyone will have their best day, so I tried to handicap it by a few seconds each leg. Might have butchered some math in there, but even being conservative NP probably wins. You could handicap these even further and they still win, the 8K legs are the biggest difference. This all changes if the course is hilly or the weather is bad or something.
Dev Doshi at 8:25 3200. Wouldn't that be a national prep record? I haven't even heard of this guy.

He hasn’t broken 9 minutes in track

1 year ago 11/28/2022 1:22pm EST

re: Username.

Username. wrote:
What are the ages of the Japanese ekiden high schoolers vs NP?

Also how big are the schools, how big is the area do they pull from and do the runners get to choose where they go to school.

1 year ago 11/28/2022 1:37pm EST

re: Plith

Doshi ran a 9:02 3200m which converts to a 8:25 3000m. Appears xcfan2233 accidentally typed 3200 instead of 3000.

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