You have not followed D1 women’s cross country very closely over the past 5 years if you are so sure any woman or team is good enough to run away and hide in a race with 20+ ranked teams. I’m guessing you also haven’t been to this race to see how it typically evolves.
I’ve been following the sport since the 70’s.
The nature of D1 women’s racing is night and day more competitive now than in the past. Much more depth. NCSt women have demonstrated they are team first and focused on November. Nutty hasn’t been won from a front running tactic since Ednah Kurgat in 2017. If these things prove to be false and Touhy gaps the field at the mile by 10 seconds I’ll come on here and bow down to your prediction.
Group of 5 women coming across 5k in 16:07, with an awesome battle during that final kilometer run in 3:10 for the victor, final time of 19:17 with Tuohy for the win.
Side note: If McCabe doesn’t run, it’s not improbable that the group of 5 women I predict who come across the 5k mark in 16:07 isn’t all NC State women. They’re all capable of it.
Women’s top 6k times on the Thomas Zimmer course, according to MileSplit data…. (See link). For some reason, Wisconsin’s own website, which PRIDES itself on this course, does not list the course records! (Odd). I know it’s been discussed on another thread, the legitimacy of course length in previous years; but regardless, considering all the sub-20:00 times, these times are AMAZINGLY fast.
Example: Allie Ostrander’s 19:19.50 record; set in 2015, is approximately 3:12 per kilometer, or 5:11 per mile. Meaning Allie would have been coming across 5k in approximately 16:05 and kept going. While certainly not IMPOSSIBLE; considering how hilly this course is with its legitimate ups-and-downs, that’s flying. Sure, a high-caliber athlete could run sub-16:00 for just 5k on this course with no problem, but to keep going? And that final 400m climb to the finish is punishing!
Last year, under decent conditions, the women hit 5k in 16:35 in a fairly good sized group still attached. Roe from Oklahoma took off, Chmiel followed, and then up that final hill push to the finish it looked like Chmiel had the victory but Roe pulled up to her and then McCabe showed her amazing kick and pulled away from them both for the victory in 19:57.40. That’s fast considering the difficulty of that course. BUT, that time would only rank her #56 all-time on the Thomas Zimmer course. What the???
So, is it possible to break this course record of Ostrander’s? Yes, under extremely tight conditions. Example: Dry, short-cut grass, mild humidity, cool (bot not cold) temperature , fast, but sustainable pace right from the start, and a reason to want the victory against an incredibly fast field that also wants the win. I think it’s reasonable to predict it can happen next week. It’s a statement course, a statement meet, with nationally ranked teams and individuals in attendance. If all conditions are good, I can see the top group coming across the 5k in that 16:05 range. And this group can clip a sub-3:12 on that final kilometer if they’re really going after the victory. Under these conditions, I predict:
Group of 5 women coming across 5k in 16:07, with an awesome battle during that final kilometer run in 3:10 for the victor, final time of 19:17 with Tuohy for the win.
Breaking a course record that was achieved when the course was shorter is so tough to do specially when the course is finally a FULL 6K
Women’s top 6k times on the Thomas Zimmer course, according to MileSplit data…. (See link). For some reason, Wisconsin’s own website, which PRIDES itself on this course, does not list the course records! (Odd). I know it’s been discussed on another thread, the legitimacy of course length in previous years; but regardless, considering all the sub-20:00 times, these times are AMAZINGLY fast.
Example: Allie Ostrander’s 19:19.50 record; set in 2015, is approximately 3:12 per kilometer, or 5:11 per mile. Meaning Allie would have been coming across 5k in approximately 16:05 and kept going. While certainly not IMPOSSIBLE; considering how hilly this course is with its legitimate ups-and-downs, that’s flying. Sure, a high-caliber athlete could run sub-16:00 for just 5k on this course with no problem, but to keep going? And that final 400m climb to the finish is punishing!
Last year, under decent conditions, the women hit 5k in 16:35 in a fairly good sized group still attached. Roe from Oklahoma took off, Chmiel followed, and then up that final hill push to the finish it looked like Chmiel had the victory but Roe pulled up to her and then McCabe showed her amazing kick and pulled away from them both for the victory in 19:57.40. That’s fast considering the difficulty of that course. BUT, that time would only rank her #56 all-time on the Thomas Zimmer course. What the???
So, is it possible to break this course record of Ostrander’s? Yes, under extremely tight conditions. Example: Dry, short-cut grass, mild humidity, cool (bot not cold) temperature , fast, but sustainable pace right from the start, and a reason to want the victory against an incredibly fast field that also wants the win. I think it’s reasonable to predict it can happen next week. It’s a statement course, a statement meet, with nationally ranked teams and individuals in attendance. If all conditions are good, I can see the top group coming across the 5k in that 16:05 range. And this group can clip a sub-3:12 on that final kilometer if they’re really going after the victory. Under these conditions, I predict:
Group of 5 women coming across 5k in 16:07, with an awesome battle during that final kilometer run in 3:10 for the victor, final time of 19:17 with Tuohy for the win.
Breaking a course record that was achieved when the course was shorter is so tough to do specially when the course is finally a FULL 6K
You know Tuohy is self-motivated by running fast. She already set a course record on her first outing this year. She’s going into this race, now knowing that without a shadow of a doubt, she’s the class of this field. Her motivation won’t be to win, she already knows she will win.
Her motivation will be to beat the course. The only way to measure that is by time, the fastest ever run.
This isn’t HS. She wants to win NCAA in late November. She certainly wants to win Nutty but this meet is Oct 14. She’s proven herself to be a savvy racer in college using race tactics that suggest she will go for the win off a big move in the last 2k. The time is irrelevant.
Katelyn said when you want to PR in cross country, its about the place finish and not the time finish, but she also said time matters on historic courses.
The Nuttycombe is an historic invitational held on the very historic Zimmer Course that produced Olympians and the country's biggest star!
If the weather is good, Katelyn will try to break that insane 19:19 course record. She needs all the help pushing the pace tho.
If the weather is good, Katelyn will try to break that insane 19:19 course record. She needs all the help pushing the pace tho.
I knew you’d agree. However, Katelyn has set many, many records out all by herself.
I think Mccabe will be there, although the team will not be there, she is going to be individually there bcoz why would they not send their best runner to the biggest race of the year for preparation to nationals right ??
19:19 is a crazy time on a hilly course... you have to properly execute a race plan to get to that and not just hammer it up front well i guess you have to hammer it up front because surely no one will push the pace that hard other than the person who wants to break the record, and i dont think kemboi wants to break the record, she just wants to stay close to katelyn, meanwhile mccabe would also do the same and just draft behind katelyn ... so the effort to break it will all be on katelyn. Its going to be tough yea.
19:19 is a crazy time on a hilly course... you have to properly execute a race plan to get to that and not just hammer it up front well i guess you have to hammer it up front because surely no one will push the pace that hard other than the person who wants to break the record, and i dont think kemboi wants to break the record, she just wants to stay close to katelyn, meanwhile mccabe would also do the same and just draft behind katelyn ... so the effort to break it will all be on katelyn. Its going to be tough yea.
IF McCabe shows up and Kemboi really wants the challenge, it WILL be fast.
I think you will see a fairly large lead pack - 4 NC St (5 w Chmiel), 3-4 NM, 2-3 NAU, 2 CO, McCabe, Van Camp till 4.5-5K and then the race starts with 4 NC St, Covert, McCabe, Van Camp, Frentheway and 2 NM in the top 10 followed by more NM, NAU, maybe several Georgetown and UNC.
I think you will see a fairly large lead pack - 4 NC St (5 w Chmiel), 3-4 NM, 2-3 NAU, 2 CO, McCabe, Van Camp till 4.5-5K and then the race starts with 4 NC St, Covert, McCabe, Van Camp, Frentheway and 2 NM in the top 10 followed by more NM, NAU, maybe several Georgetown and UNC.
The nature of D1 women’s racing is night and day more competitive now than in the past. Much more depth. NCSt women have demonstrated they are team first and focused on November. Nutty hasn’t been won from a front running tactic since Ednah Kurgat in 2017. If these things prove to be false and Touhy gaps the field at the mile by 10 seconds I’ll come on here and bow down to your prediction.
katelyn did not do it on a flatter easier course at joe piane so i dont think she would gap the field at the mile like an NXN race .. but she will help set a fast pace .. or i could be wrong and she's really eyeing for that record and hammers it, we'll find out in less than a week!
I think you will see a fairly large lead pack - 4 NC St (5 w Chmiel), 3-4 NM, 2-3 NAU, 2 CO, McCabe, Van Camp till 4.5-5K and then the race starts with 4 NC St, Covert, McCabe, Van Camp, Frentheway and 2 NM in the top 10 followed by more NM, NAU, maybe several Georgetown and UNC.
I think you will see a fairly large lead pack - 4 NC St (5 w Chmiel), 3-4 NM, 2-3 NAU, 2 CO, McCabe, Van Camp till 4.5-5K and then the race starts with 4 NC St, Covert, McCabe, Van Camp, Frentheway and 2 NM in the top 10 followed by more NM, NAU, maybe several Georgetown and UNC.