^^This is spot on. You're getting too close to your HM pace between 20-30k, and you've averaged 4:10/km between 10-30k (sub 3 hour pace is 4:15/km). I know it doesn't seem like a lot, but when your HM pace is 4:03/km, you're getting a little too close to the fire.
I'd also recommend that you pay attention to heart rate. If it wasn't any specific muscle group that let you down, I'd be inclined to believe that your heart rate just crept up too early. You can feel pretty good with a HR at around 80-85% of max (which is still too high for the first half of a marathon), but once it starts creeping up above 90%, your body will force you to slow down before too long. Lots of people mistake this for hitting the wall, but it's simply that they've worked too hard too early.