OK State vs NC State

Van Camp, Hertenstein and Covert are pretty proven runners. The top 2 OSU girls beat them by 20 seconds. The next 2 were within 10 seconds of them. I also think it is safe to say everyone will be more fit and a little more rested by year end, perhaps the 3 I named more so than most. Still, the top 4 OSU girls do look solid - their issue is their 5th.

But we shall see...perhaps I will eat my words.

Cook looked exhausted after the race. Big effort. Not sure if that's good or bad but just saying

After OK State won Cowboy Jamboree, NC State women ran 13 miles this morning in 6:40 mile pace per strava.

Yeah but look at the girls who are three through seven... Those girls were within a few seconds of cook and none of them are considerate elite talents, at least coming into the season... I mean none of those girls have strong resumes and some of them have pretty mediocre performances even in spring

Sounds like a winning combination if they are close to the fastest high schooler in history and a national champ in the NCAA.

Let me make sure I understand what you are saying. This course was 40 seconds slower in early 2021 than it was today. So Chelangat's 20:01 that day would have been 19:21 today? That is 4 seconds faster than the time Orton won with on the very fast Fl course, beating a bunch of very good runners. Her time compared well to times run by anyone ever on that course before. This course has at least 3 times the number of hills as the FL course. By all accounts it is pretty tough. But on an easy day it is no slower than the Fl course? Really?

For me, this is how it goes:

NC State 1 beats OK State 1

OK State 2 beats NC State 2

NC State 3 beats OK State 3

NC State 4 beats OK State 4

NC State 5 beats OK State 5

Let me make sure I understand what you're saying? You don't think big difference in wind conditions and big difference in the quality of the footing makes a difference for how fast you run...

I mean obviously I'm not throwing out exact calculations here... Whatever maybe 15 seconds maybe 25 seconds...

And further you don't see that a much simpler way to figure out where they stand, is just to look at how much comp was at this meet, verse in the nation!

I mean forget about times, it's just a much more convoluted way to think about it...

This wasn't an elite meet; it was maybe 15% of the talent in the nation.

If you're finishing 12, 15 and 40 as your three through five in this meet, those places are going to be seriously knocked down when you get to Nationals with eight times the competition

And that's assuming that they're top two runners stay healthy and have great performances

Look at dudek she was winning races and looking like a star and what happened?

Anyway this is the same guy who predicted to dudek would be the best runner in college and Hutchins would also be way better than tuohy

Speaking of dudek why not running?

Don't think dudek is on the team this season. Maybe studying abroad

Nah look at Katelyn Tuohy, girl looks stronger than EVER. Plus Sam Bush and Marlee Starliper just broke her time from last year's Adidas Challenge, so they're strong too.

Image:pbs.twimg.com/media/FddXVqkaUAAv4Qm?fo...

Cook beat Reiss and Stearns by 10 seconds... This is Reiss resume! Stearns is similar with a 186 natties finish in 2021!

800 2:15.08
1500 4:23.96
MILE 4:46.62
3000 9:29.47
5000 16:06.42
5K (XC) 16:59.9
6K (XC) 20:32.5
2.5 MILE (XC) 15:20.0

What kind of shoes is 2E wearing? What model?

Seymour looks amazing as well! Nc State will put 5 in top 15! Ok state won't put 5 in top 100

You and I apparently use logic differently.

15% of the talent? I bet about half of the final top 10 teams were at OSU today. OSU, NAU, CO, BYU, Stanford. Who is missing? NC ST, AL, NM, ND (?). and who else?

There are 3 "big" early meets. This one, Joe Piane (next week), and Nuttycombe. Most top teams are running 2 of those 3. The other meets are not attracting any of the top teams.

Bush was 19th at Joe Piane last year and finished 32 at Nationals. Hasz was 10th and finished 7th at Nationals. Tuohy was 8th and finished 15th at Nationals with a fall. So there will be some "dilution" - perhaps a factor of 1.5-2 or so - so 12, 15, 40 become 30-40 ish, 70-80ish. I think above using logic the way I do (math) I came up with 45-55 for their 3rd and 4th. I can see NC ST, NM and AL putting around 15 runners ahead of OSU's 3rd....but that still only adds 15 to 12 and 15. The other teams just don't have many or any that good.

I don't think I said Dudek would be better than Tuohy. If I did, find it and post it. She was running right with Donaghu in early 2020 before she got hurt. And now can't seem to make it back. Hutchins? I really don't think I said that.

not sure for the long runs but for the workouts ...you might laugh at the answer but shes a "dont fix it if it aint broken" girl so shes using a 2020 shoe, adidas boston 9. no plate, no thick foam .. she uses old shoes for training and runs in advanced and recent shoes for racing... i think its kinda a mental thing. if you know what i mean ... you run workouts and long runs in less advanced shoes then run in more advanced shoes on race day .

No... I didn't mean that you made those claims... I meant the guy who started this thread made those claims... Meaning he just makes wild claims and then moves on to the next one!!!

Yeah but just because five of the top 10 teams we're at this need doesn't mean that teams from 10 through 30 might put runners in before Oklahoma's top three four and five

Just for an example showing improvement, before 2021 XC season here are a runner's college prs. 5,000 - 16:26, 3,000 - 9:38, 1 mile - 4:47.8. Where did she finish in 2021 XC? 32nd Name: Sam Bush

nc.milesplit.com

Samantha Bush - Progression

Link:nc.milesplit.com/athletes/7556134-sama...

In other words out of the top 100 runners in the nation how many were at this meet?

Out of the top 200 runners in the country how many were at this meet?

I would say finishing 40th at this meet would be like finishing 160th at Nationals!

All the top 30 teams in the country have some good runners

And then there are the individual qualifiers

My guess would be maybe 20% of the top 200 runners were at this event!!!

Be careful. We don't judge cross country potential based on how strong a woman looks or the sprinters woukd be the favorites in XC. And you need to be careful talking about bodies.