OK State vs NC State

Probably not a deep enough top 5. Although they will have home court advantage.

these numbers aren't deep enough? ok state just broke 2020 xc championship winning team's score

nc state's top 2 is not stronger than ok state's top 2

To have a realistic shot to win it you need a top 5 that can place in the top 40. Against a full national field at the end of the season. Guess we will see when they get there.

We will see. But even if true that leaves 3rd, 4th and 5th.

That 40th place today will kill any chances at Nationals.....50 seconds 1-5. NC State was under 20 last year, as NM was too

That doesn’t fix their #5, and tbh I think I’d take Tuohy and Chmiel over Cook and Roe. It’s close though.

Not that it will help ok state beat nc state, but Molly born was missing

Another thing I have observed is that the W 2020 XC championship was a pretty weak field overall. BYU ran well and deservingly won by a lot even with a weakened Orton. But between COVID and the overlap with indoors many teams either did not run top teams, or underperformed.

Fair enough, yes. Still this puts OK State up there at the top title contenders, they replaced BYU. I don't see BYU contending for a title this year.

I would not have expected to see Natalie Cook defeat the experienced Taylor Roe today. WOW….

Pretty legit fast times for Cook and Roe this morning for early season as well…. Interesting…

What shocked me is BYU's Aubrey Frentheway. She is just 6 seconds behind Cook despite having 15:52 5000m PR.

yup, she ran well today....as she did on this course 18 months ago...she seems better on tough XC courses than on the track

Also want to add NAU Women at the top title contenders next to OK State. They showed dept today. Finishing second despite Taryn O' Neill not running well.

What happened to Grace Ping?

Everyone’s expectations for Chmiel are way to high. Not fair to her since she is coming off a significant injury. There is no way she will be back to her form last year by November. I’m sure NCState is hoping she can be there solid 4 or 5th. Their top three will be Tuohy, Starliper, and Bush. Seymour and Chmiel (if healthy) 4th and 5th. 6th and 7th will be Moreno and Howlett.

I think we can assume Tuohy will be with or ahead of Cook and Roe. And NC State's 5th will be within 30 seconds of her (one could argue 20). So OSU will need to get that 5th runner closer to Cook/Roe. OSU's 4th was 27 sec behind Cook today so they seem solid through 4.

Well NCst tends to be very cautious regarding injuries. Tuohy did not run virtually all spring in 2021 and was fit enough to AA at XC nationals that March. Tuohy was held out from December through March last year and had a breakout indoor championship. Hays missed most of the outdoor season, came back at regionals and ended up 1st team AA. Starliper had been handled very careful. Etc. So you cannot draw any drastic conclusions. Chmiel is clearly training with the team.

Beyond the obvious caveat regarding it being very early in the season still, I would also caution that we do not know how fit Roe is right now. She honestly looked somewhat run down by the end of outdoor last year and skipped running at the trials. She was hardly the only one; the entire Western contingent seemed run down. But lets not have a Stanford redux until we get some more results.