This Lolly just stated Rudisha on average was two seconds faster than Coe over 800m. For sure that's nonsense, also it's not clear what the statement exactly means. Coe's 1:41.73 was more an outlier than Rudisha's 1:40.91, but Rudisha was a pure 800 guy, Coe not. Rudisha almost solely ran paced time trials, Coe not. I would say, Rudisha was something like 1 second faster than Coe. How much of this can be explained by shoes and tracks? Impossible to quantify. I tend to say very little.
At their absolute best, they are almost even for me.
Shoes and tracks now, EPO back then. Since there is no official "shoes / tracks / EPO" converter, you will just have rely on numbers.
When you compare the average of top 10 races from both, you'll notice that Rudisha is ca. 2s faster.
You want them to be the same, but they're not. Rudisha is Usain Bolt of 800m.
I don't want them to be the same. In your original comment, you gave their 10th fastest times (wrongly, I think) and from this you stated that Rudisha on average is 2 seconds faster than Coe. Complete nonsense.
Someone else gave their top 10 average, and Rudisha was 1.8 seconds faster. Not far from 2 seconds, but not helpful for reasons already given.
Coe at his 81 prime was (almost?) as good as Rudisha over 800m. I don't want it like this, I think it's the truth. For sure Rudisha and Kipketer both have to be ranked way ahead of Coe in an all-time ranking.
No shame in that but Jakob is turning 22 in a week and I see him limited in his turnover which means he will likely not run faster at 1500m than he has. Then he will probably continue to be a sub 13 and sub 27 man who occasionally wins a global championship for a few more years. This is his ceiling, so best possible personal bests would be 12:40 and 26:25. A pretty good career one might say.
Since this thread won´t die I take the opportunity to respond to the OPs initial post.
I think he brings forward many dubious claims not just about Jakob but also about training, peaking and more.
The OP claims the following:
1. Jakob will likely not improve his 1500m PB
2. Because he is turning 22
3. And because of his limited "turnover"?!
4. He will CONTINUE to be a sub 13 and sub 27 runner.
5. He will occasionally win global champs.
6. For a few more years.
7. Ceiling 12:40 and 26:25.
And in later posts on this thread:
8. Jakob is like a 25 years old.
9. He is a medal contender in 1500m - 10000m
10. He is about to peak bacause he has been training for a very long time.
--------------------
Ad 1. I predict Jakob will improve his 1500m times over the coming years provided he stays healthey and continues his efficient mainly aerobic traning.
I agree with others that he was already 3:27 last year and that he could have run sub 3:28 in Monaco this year with good pacing and weather.
WE can come back to this thread about 11 month from now. When the DL Monaco 1500m has been run.
Ad 2. Turning 22?!
I agree with other that it isn´t normal to peak at 22.
I have gathered some information about the age where various 1500m runners peaked:
Lewandowski 34
Mo Farah 30
Mechaal 30
Mo Ahmed 29
Grethen 29
Sam Parsons 28
Elliot Giles 28
Wightman 28
Neil Gourley 27
Rozmys 27
McSweyn 26
Timothy 25
Grant Fisher 25
Hoare 25
Kipsang 24
Mario Garcia 23
Nuguse 23
Heyward 23
Fontes 23
Ramsden 23
Many of these runners PBed this year and many (especially the younger segment) will possibly be quite disappointed if they are not improving further
I continue to address the OPs various claims above:
Ad 3. Jakob has limited "turnover" so he won´t improve his 1500m PB!?
I am not sure I understand what the OP mean with limited "turnover" but if he mean limited SPEED or limited ABILITY TO IMPROVE MORE I will address this below.
Ad 4. Jakob will CONTINUE to be sub 13 and sub 27. I agree with first statement but don´t understand the second. Jakob has never run a 10000m so he can´t CONTINUE to be sub 27.
Ad 7. I agree, however, that Jakob possibly could go well under 27 in the 10000m if he ran it next week.
I think he will go below 12:40 later in his career and if he start to run the 10000m he can go sub 26:20 . I don´t think he will be worse in the 10000m than in the 5000m so you can use this formula: 2x 12:40 + 1 minute= 26:20.
Ad 5., 6. and 9.
The OP seems to think Jakob has a chance to win gold or at least medals in global Champs FOR A FEW MORE YEARS.
It could be interesting to know who he considers to be the foremost favorite to win the 1500m and the 5000m the next 3 years in the WC Budapest 2023, in the Olympics in Paris 2024 and the WC in Tokyo 2025.
What rubbish are you spouting now!? You're the one that comes across as a clown.
One can only use pb's to compare. Of course EL G was capable of running much faster than 1:47.18 but he didn't officially. I could say that Coe was capable of 3:28.0 and 3:44.5, and cite good evidence to back that up, but I would rightly be pointed out that these were not his officail pbs. He was also certainly capable of much faster than 14:06, which was run in very windy conditions as a training run against club runners.
Coe ran numerous 1500m and mile races.
El G hardly ran any 800m races.
Follow?
I follow very well thank you.
EL G had an army of pacemakers at his disposal for training, whom he frequently used in 1500m circuit races. It defies belief that he couldn't have used said training pacers to take him round a first lap in 50.5 in a Golden League or 2nd tier circuit race in Europe. Therefore it is clear he CHOSE not to run an 800m, for whatever reason. Just because he decided not to run any 800's, it does not justify others pulling different times out of their a***s and claiming that was his pb. So, no, it isn't good enough to palm him off as a 1:42.7 runner based on an alleged 'training run' or (as claimed on this thread) that he ran 1:45.5.
Of course it is clear that his official pb is a nonsense as a representation of his actual ability, in which case I am happy to read that he was 'capable' of 1:44 or whatever, but be mindful that this wasn't his actual pb.
N.B - Lagat, with a similar 1500 pb to EL G and a similar focus on 1500/5k running, attempted running 800m several times on the circuit, competing in good quality fields, yet he never won and failed to run faster than 1:46.0. So, this is yet more evidence to suggest that we should automatically question what the actual ability of EL G was over 800m.
Personally, I don't think he would have been any faster than 1:44 mid in a well paced competitive field.
What rubbish are you spouting now!? You're the one that comes across as a clown.
One can only use pb's to compare. Of course EL G was capable of running much faster than 1:47.18 but he didn't officially. I could say that Coe was capable of 3:28.0 and 3:44.5, and cite good evidence to back that up, but I would rightly be pointed out that these were not his officail pbs. He was also certainly capable of much faster than 14:06, which was run in very windy conditions as a training run against club runners.
Coe ran numerous 1500m and mile races.
El G hardly ran any 800m races.
Follow?
Yes, and not a single decent paced effort in any of them! Certainly nothing like the economically even paced laps that is a given on the circuit today (see JI's splits) or what EL G received in many of his races.
Coe's fastest 3 1500m times came off the following splits.
This Lolly just stated Rudisha on average was two seconds faster than Coe over 800m. For sure that's nonsense, also it's not clear what the statement exactly means. Coe's 1:41.73 was more an outlier than Rudisha's 1:40.91, but Rudisha was a pure 800 guy, Coe not. Rudisha almost solely ran paced time trials, Coe not. I would say, Rudisha was something like 1 second faster than Coe. How much of this can be explained by shoes and tracks? Impossible to quantify. I tend to say very little.
At their absolute best, they are almost even for me.
Shoes and tracks now, EPO back then. Since there is no official "shoes / tracks / EPO" converter, you will just have rely on numbers.
When you compare the average of top 10 races from both, you'll notice that Rudisha is ca. 2s faster.
You want them to be the same, but they're not. Rudisha is Usain Bolt of 800m.
Rudisha is the GOAT of 800m, I agree, but he I don't think the Bolt comparison is very reflective. Bolt knocked huge chunks off the 100 and 200m WR's, percentage wise, whereas Rudisha took just 0.2 secs off Kipketer's previous world record in 2 goes. Kipketer himself took 0.62 off Coe's record. Coe himself was 1.71secs faster than anyone else in history for 3 years. His impact on the event was Beamonesque when he set that 1:41.73.
It has to be remembered that not only was the European circuit a very different place in the late 90's and 10 years ago (where almost every 800m race had a 50.0 first lap), compared to Coe's time, but Kipketer and Rudisha were pure 800m runners, whereas Coe was not.
Part of the reason why Kipketer ran so many sub 1:43's, is that he spent a couple of years attacking Coe's WR. Likewise in Rudisha's era, he spent a lot of time (and thus setting lots of fast times) trying to break Kipketer's WR.
Coe took 1.11 of Juantorena's WR in 79, then another 0.61 off his own record in 81. He pretty much put the WR out of sight, so there wasn't reallly the need or incentive to keep breaking his own WR, knowing no one else was within 1.7 secs of him. In a different era, one without having to run almost half one's races in low key domestic fixtures, or one with greater depth in competition and regular pacers going through the bell in 50 secs or faster, I'm sure Coe could have run many 1:42 races. In 81, had he focused purely on 800m, rather than breaking 3 world records at other distances, he believed he could have run faster still later in the season.
There have been studies looking at things like this. Distance runners set their lifetime PBs at around age 27 for all distances between 1500m - 10,000m. It's a little lower than that for 800m and little higher than that for marathon (as expected). Even if he is an early bloomer, I would expect him to still have at least 3 years ahead of him where he could very likely improve his 1500m PB and 10 years ahead of him to keep running in the <3:32 range. Pretty sure Kevin Sullivan of Canada ran something like within a couple tenths of a second within his lifetime PB at age ~34. This post is ridiculous.
Pretty sure Kevin Sullivan of Canada ran something like within a couple tenths of a second within his lifetime PB at age ~34.
He ran .94” off of his PB at age 32 (4.07” off his PB at 34). Just to get the facts straight, not to argue your point. But it’s worth noting that he was someone who was very good very early: 3:39 at age 18.
EL G had an army of pacemakers at his disposal for training, whom he frequently used in 1500m circuit races. It defies belief that he couldn't have used said training pacers to take him round a first lap in 50.5 in a Golden League or 2nd tier circuit race in Europe. Therefore it is clear he CHOSE not to run an 800m, for whatever reason. Just because he decided not to run any 800's, it does not justify others pulling different times out of their a***s and claiming that was his pb. So, no, it isn't good enough to palm him off as a 1:42.7 runner based on an alleged 'training run' or (as claimed on this thread) that he ran 1:45.5.
Of course it is clear that his official pb is a nonsense as a representation of his actual ability, in which case I am happy to read that he was 'capable' of 1:44 or whatever, but be mindful that this wasn't his actual pb.
N.B - Lagat, with a similar 1500 pb to EL G and a similar focus on 1500/5k running, attempted running 800m several times on the circuit, competing in good quality fields, yet he never won and failed to run faster than 1:46.0. So, this is yet more evidence to suggest that we should automatically question what the actual ability of EL G was over 800m.
Personally, I don't think he would have been any faster than 1:44 mid in a well paced competitive field.
Coe could have run a 3:44 mile? Three seconds faster than his PB?
Shoes and tracks now, EPO back then. Since there is no official "shoes / tracks / EPO" converter, you will just have rely on numbers.
When you compare the average of top 10 races from both, you'll notice that Rudisha is ca. 2s faster.
You want them to be the same, but they're not. Rudisha is Usain Bolt of 800m.
Rudisha is the GOAT of 800m, I agree, but he I don't think the Bolt comparison is very reflective. Bolt knocked huge chunks off the 100 and 200m WR's, percentage wise, whereas Rudisha took just 0.2 secs off Kipketer's previous world record in 2 goes. Kipketer himself took 0.62 off Coe's record. Coe himself was 1.71secs faster than anyone else in history for 3 years. His impact on the event was Beamonesque when he set that 1:41.73.
It has to be remembered that not only was the European circuit a very different place in the late 90's and 10 years ago (where almost every 800m race had a 50.0 first lap), compared to Coe's time, but Kipketer and Rudisha were pure 800m runners, whereas Coe was not.
Part of the reason why Kipketer ran so many sub 1:43's, is that he spent a couple of years attacking Coe's WR. Likewise in Rudisha's era, he spent a lot of time (and thus setting lots of fast times) trying to break Kipketer's WR.
Coe took 1.11 of Juantorena's WR in 79, then another 0.61 off his own record in 81. He pretty much put the WR out of sight, so there wasn't reallly the need or incentive to keep breaking his own WR, knowing no one else was within 1.7 secs of him. In a different era, one without having to run almost half one's races in low key domestic fixtures, or one with greater depth in competition and regular pacers going through the bell in 50 secs or faster, I'm sure Coe could have run many 1:42 races. In 81, had he focused purely on 800m, rather than breaking 3 world records at other distances, he believed he could have run faster still later in the season.
He lost a number of 800m races....the majority of those he ran?
Oh, also happy 22nd birthday to Jakob Ingebrigtsen.
Can Jacob get an outdoor WR?
Best chance is the mile of 1500m I would say.
2,000 or 3,000 or 2 mile or 5k longer shots I would say
I disagree, I think the order of attainability for him is:
1. 2 mile 7:58.61
2. 2000 4:44.79
3. 3000 7:20.67
4a. Mile 3:43.13
4b. 5000 12:35.36
5. 1500 3:26.00
I think he could get the 2 mile and maybe the 2k, but those are also the marks he’s least likely to make multiple efforts to break. I would bet against him breaking the others, especially the 1500, but who knows, none of us know.
Pretty sure Kevin Sullivan of Canada ran something like within a couple tenths of a second within his lifetime PB at age ~34.
He ran .94” off of his PB at age 32 (4.07” off his PB at 34). Just to get the facts straight, not to argue your point. But it’s worth noting that he was someone who was very good very early: 3:39 at age 18.
Thanks. I knew what I was saying was not precisely correct. Good to know the specific facts. I believe he had a couple rough years before that time he ran at age 32 also, right? Reminds me some of Adam Goucher who came back and finally had some decent performances again way late in his career after having major issues for something like 7 years. May have been due to whatever "help" he was getting from Sal, but the fact remains most guys can continue to run very well into their early 30s if they don't have any career-ending injuries.
There have been studies looking at things like this. Distance runners set their lifetime PBs at around age 27 for all distances between 1500m - 10,000m. It's a little lower than that for 800m and little higher than that for marathon (as expected). Even if he is an early bloomer, I would expect him to still have at least 3 years ahead of him where he could very likely improve his 1500m PB and 10 years ahead of him to keep running in the <3:32 range. Pretty sure Kevin Sullivan of Canada ran something like within a couple tenths of a second within his lifetime PB at age ~34. Thispostisridiculous.
Your final sentence actually nails it. It is a odd confession coming from you but I appreciate your candor.
I disagree, I think the order of attainability for him is:
1. 2 mile 7:58.61
2. 2000 4:44.79
3. 3000 7:20.67
4a. Mile 3:43.13
4b. 5000 12:35.36
5. 1500 3:26.00
I think he could get the 2 mile and maybe the 2k, but those are also the marks he’s least likely to make multiple efforts to break. I would bet against him breaking the others, especially the 1500, but who knows, none of us know.
The question will be if he dabbles with 1 and 2 which are World Bests and not World Records.
I think he should go after the 3000m with the European record held by an undeserving doper (Mourhit) with paltry career accomplishments. It's also quite realistic to me that off the bat Jakob could go to #2 or #3 all time in a good attempt. I think he could've run between 7:22 and 7:24 this year.
2,000 or 3,000 or 2 mile or 5k longer shots I would say
I disagree, I think the order of attainability for him is:
1. 2 mile 7:58.61
2. 2000 4:44.79
3. 3000 7:20.67
4a. Mile 3:43.13
4b. 5000 12:35.36
5. 1500 3:26.00
I think he could get the 2 mile and maybe the 2k, but those are also the marks he’s least likely to make multiple efforts to break. I would bet against him breaking the others, especially the 1500, but who knows, none of us know.
The deuce may be the easiest -- if he ever runs one.
The 2k seems pretty hard -- a 3:50 1600m plus another 400m sub 55. Wow.
The 3k is legendary for how tough a record it is.
None will be easy.
Jacob is incredible but I suspect he may not get an outdoor WR.
Oh, also happy 22nd birthday to Jakob Ingebrigtsen.
Yes Happy Birthday Jakob! It is interesting that your best years as an athlete are likely over at age 22. For the last 5 years your slowest 1500m yearly best was 3:31.18. Congrats on a great career that seems to have peaked already!
The deuce may be the easiest -- if he ever runs one.
The 2k seems pretty hard -- a 3:50 1600m plus another 400m sub 55. Wow.
The 3k is legendary for how tough a record it is.
None will be easy.
Jacob is incredible but I suspect he may not get an outdoor WR.
For the 2000, I think that would be a harder way to do it than necessary. Why not just click off 57 lows to around a 3:48.5-3:49.0 and just have to pick it up slightly for that last lap. Jakob to me seems pretty untroubled running at that pace and should have a good kick.
The 3k is legendary but the events above it have kinda moved on. Don't get me wrong it's a strong mark, but a bunch of guys have run 7:24.9-7:27 who are not in Jakob's class at 1500 or 5,000. It also seems like a perfect event for Jakob's skillset.