Well, if you look at her 10,000m performance (1303 WA points) at 29:01 and her 62:52 half, 1281 points, you could argue (based on those numbers) that the longer the distance, the slower she runs. But on the other hand, she has only run one half-marathon and several 5000m and 10,000m races, which she has had good progression. Part of that is due to age. She is only 24.
Kipchoge's 2:01:09 equals 1312 points. I think his 2:01:39 was about 1303.
Women are approximately 9-10% slower than men across almost all distances.
2:12 is less than 9% slower than Kipchoge's 2:01:09.
Marathon debuts are very tough. I think that if she hits one out of the park in her debut, it will be 2:12:55 - 2:13:15-range.
If her training has gone impeccably and she runs tactically a very smart race and has excellent pacing/pacers, she will do it. The 2:12:55 to 2:13:15-range is clearly a new world record.
As we all know, weather is a big factor.
I'd hate to be that guy that gives a second time to fall back on, if I am wrong with the first one, but so much can happen in a race. She could DNF, DNS, go out at 2:12:00 pace and fade, go out at 2:14 pace, then hammer the final 5K.
Who knows.
But I will go with my 2:12:55 - 2:13:15-range (unless we hear that she hasn't been training optimally or the weather becomes an issue).