TN HS XC Predictions

Looks like Farragut’s 5th man would struggle to make Belen’s varsity.

Seems like Belen and Brentwood are better now.

Brentwood’s 5th is a little far back but still better than Farragut’s 5.

Maybe the courses they have been running on are different but it would be nice to see the speed ratings.

As I said, Brentwood and Belen are favored to make NXN. Farragut is projected to get 3rd at NXN but should not be counted out

Honestly, I couldn’t tell you why the fiasco happened. The timing crew had problems all season.

I’ll be interested in these speed ratings also. Belen has come on strong, obviously, and is crazy deep. Brentwood ran well in Alabama. Farragut ran well at KIL, which is a race that means something to them. They have a very experienced coach who seems to have them in a really good spot.

Brentwood and Farragut will be facing each other at state, which should indicate which team has a better chance to go to NXN.

McCallie will be in a different race at state. Their 1-3 all ran a 4:18/9:25 in track but one of those guys is in the 3-7+ pack not with their 1/2, so this took away their chances of making nxn although they have a lot of depth

Brentwood has been racing really well. They came into the season as underdogs but have had a lot of growth and development.

The saving grace for Farragut has been their new Canadian, who was their second finisher on Saturday. If he doesn’t run out of his supply of maple syrup and back bacon before State, they will be tough to beat.

However, Brentwood is deeper through 6-7 runners and would be able to handle one of their top runners having an off day better than Farragut would.

It’ll also be interesting to see how they end up in November. Farragut has been selective about their racing, so they may have more room to grow. While Brentwood has raced quite a bit more, they may have gained confidence as they’ve gone from podium contender to State Championship and NXN contender.

This is an exciting time for Tennessee cross country. There has been some impressive individual depth in the past, but the team depth on the boys side with Farragut, Brentwood and McCallie is impressive this season.

McCallie
2021:
5 under 16:20 5k
7 under 17 5k

2022:
10 under 16:20 5k (7 nonseniors)
16 under 17 5k (11 nonseniors)
Crazy

In 2007, Oak Ridge and Baylor were 1-3 at NXN SE. In 2014, Daniel Boone and Brentwood went 2-4. In 2015, Brentwood and BA went 1-5. Team depth has been there before, but it’s been a while since it’s been quite this good.

Brentwood Academy would have been in the mix with Farragut, Brentwood and McCallie, but unfortunately they don’t have a 5th man.
Beech is another solid, improving team with lots of young talent, although they aren’t with the big 3 right now.
How about Knoxville Catholic? Right now all people know about it is that Keegan Smith goes there, but their 1-4 all have PRs of sub-17 and are in his grade or below. Their 5th also has a PR of sub-17 but he is a senior. Unfortunately their 6th is in the 18s, so they will need another sophomore at the same level as their top 4, so that when Keegan Smith is a senior, his team can do huge things and could maybe be a nationally elite team.
Christian Brothers has 5 sub-17 non seniors. Similar name to the 2011 NXN champs (top 5 team in the US this year) Christian Brothers Academy from NJ.
Daniel Boone is very senior heavy and is really good but unfortunately they don’t have a 5th man.
Hardin Valley was very good last year but this year is a young, rebuilding year for them.

I remember when Brentwood has made some nxn trips and podium finishes. They would have won nxn in 2016 if they had a 5th with their 4th.

In 2017, their top 6 guys Brentwood like Hasty, Thompson and Sandifer were “not racing for their high school”, churned out some solid 3200 times, made their goal to go to Nxn and ended up getting 6th at nxr. Southeast was very deep that year. Milton GA had a transfer and was a top 10 team in the nation once that year, and then they totally blew it at nxr and got 5th. That was also the first time I’ve ever heard of Bolles FL, when they got second with a junior-built team

Turns out Farragut’s Speed ratings were lower than Belen and Brentwood at every position

Brentwood’s 6th (and even 7th if he catches up to him) has a chance of beating Farragut’s 5th. So this is where displacement comes into play.

I'm liking these new courses that show up with speed ratings. But Sanders Ferry is slower than Oakville Indian Mounds. I'd say if they were the both the same distance, Oakville would be about 10s slower, but Oakville is quite a bit shorter.

Speed Ratings are great but head to head is king. Brentwood and Farragut went head-to-head two weeks before October 1st and Farragut came out ahead with faster 2-7 runners. However, the momentum is definitely on Brentwood's side and they have a freshman who will only become tougher with more experience and another rapidly rising scorer moving up the food chain.

With Hardin Valley winning the last two and Siegel winning three before that, this team race is going to be fun to watch. I wouldn't be surprised to see one team win State but the other getting an NXN nod.

If both Farragut and Brentwood can qualify for NXN this year, it would be great.

It’s rare for a team that has no seniors scoring (like Belen this year) to qualify for NXN

Still thinking NXR SE as a 3-team race this year (Brentwood, Belen and Farragut)

Last I knew, Mike Wood and Rodney Stoker were coaching them, or at least Rodney was working there. That’s a pair of very smart coaches. Maybe not insane, just good coaching.

That surprised me, since Farragut boys ran faster than any team ever has at Cherokee. Still, Meylan’s method has been remarkably accurate, so there must be something to it. Course was dry and turns were softened.

No Chapman for Brentwood

Brentwood still needs to close the 4-5 gap to secure a spot at NXN

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mccallie’s 4-5 gap is surprisingly big

Never mind. One person who would have closed the gap ran JV.

This is a very deep team