Colorado HS XC Predictions

CO Coach wrote:

Some names in the conversation for 5A girls, like the boys, without Riley Stewart this year the girls race looks up for grabs:

Brooke Wilson Valor - returning state runner-up, won the Desert Twilight, looks to be her race to loose, but...

Bethany Michalak Air Academy - has been in the conversation all season, was second at Desert Twilight but just beat Brooke Wilson at regionals

Emma Stutzman Pomona - Is undefeated this season, she won Liberty Bell and just won Region 3 by 50 seconds, I don't think we've seen her on a hard course yet this year

Emily Lamontagne and Ava Mitchell from Arapahoe - 3rd and 4th place finishers at state last year, there's no reason to think they won't both be in the mix again this year. They haven't run regionals yet so we'll likely know more about their recent fitness after Saturday. Lamontagne had a great track season last spring, she has to be in the conversation for another top 3 finish in XC

Ella Johns Fort Collins - returning 5th place finisher at state, has consistently finished high at the big fast meets this season, she didn't run regionals, will she run at state?

4A girls:
Ella Hagen Summit - Ella looks like the class of 4A, she has had an increadibble season and has beaten some of the girls listed above in 5A. She finished second at Liberty Bell and St. Vrain. She could very well put up one of the fastest times across all classifications when the dust settles next weekend, you certainly have to like her chances coming down from 9,000 feet to the hard state course.

Bella Nelson, Addison Ritzenhein, Mia Prok from Niwot - With Niwot's depth it's really hard to pick any favorites from their team from league or regionals, Mia Prok is the highest returning finisher in 4A finishing 3rd last year. My prediction is Niwot goes 2-8 or close to it with these 3 leading their team, but I don't see any of them beating Hagen unless she has a bad day.

3A girls:
Isabel Allori Liberty Common - Isabel looks to be the class of 3A, she's undeafeted this season, including beating Ella Hagen of Summit twice. When all is said and done this season Isabel may end up being the top girl XC runner from Colorado across all classifications.

Katelyn Maley Basalt - She's the two time defending state champion in 3A, it's hard to bet against her this season and she hasn't raced Allori yet, she still looks like a solid pick for second in 3A and if Isabel has a bad day Katelyn might get the 3-peet.

Allison Pippert Stargate - She's been in the mix at some big meets and she's the returning state runner-up in XC and the long distance track races behind Maley and Allori respectively. Pippert seems like a lock for 3rd in 3A.

Red Foreman wrote:

CO Coach wrote:

Some names in the conversation for 5A girls, like the boys, without Riley Stewart this year the girls race looks up for grabs:

Brooke Wilson Valor - returning state runner-up, won the Desert Twilight, looks to be her race to loose, but...

Bethany Michalak Air Academy - has been in the conversation all season, was second at Desert Twilight but just beat Brooke Wilson at regionals

Emma Stutzman Pomona - Is undefeated this season, she won Liberty Bell and just won Region 3 by 50 seconds, I don't think we've seen her on a hard course yet this year

Emily Lamontagne and Ava Mitchell from Arapahoe - 3rd and 4th place finishers at state last year, there's no reason to think they won't both be in the mix again this year. They haven't run regionals yet so we'll likely know more about their recent fitness after Saturday. Lamontagne had a great track season last spring, she has to be in the conversation for another top 3 finish in XC

Ella Johns Fort Collins - returning 5th place finisher at state, has consistently finished high at the big fast meets this season, she didn't run regionals, will she run at state?

4A girls:
Ella Hagen Summit - Ella looks like the class of 4A, she has had an increadibble season and has beaten some of the girls listed above in 5A. She finished second at Liberty Bell and St. Vrain. She could very well put up one of the fastest times across all classifications when the dust settles next weekend, you certainly have to like her chances coming down from 9,000 feet to the hard state course.

Bella Nelson, Addison Ritzenhein, Mia Prok from Niwot - With Niwot's depth it's really hard to pick any favorites from their team from league or regionals, Mia Prok is the highest returning finisher in 4A finishing 3rd last year. My prediction is Niwot goes 2-8 or close to it with these 3 leading their team, but I don't see any of them beating Hagen unless she has a bad day.

3A girls:
Isabel Allori Liberty Common - Isabel looks to be the class of 3A, she's undeafeted this season, including beating Ella Hagen of Summit twice. When all is said and done this season Isabel may end up being the top girl XC runner from Colorado across all classifications.

Katelyn Maley Basalt - She's the two time defending state champion in 3A, it's hard to bet against her this season and she hasn't raced Allori yet, she still looks like a solid pick for second in 3A and if Isabel has a bad day Katelyn might get the 3-peet.

Allison Pippert Stargate - She's been in the mix at some big meets and she's the returning state runner-up in XC and the long distance track races behind Maley and Allori respectively. Pippert seems like a lock for 3rd in 3A.

Hagen's Dad is her coach, and, fun fact, I found out that he used to Assistant at Palmer Ridge, for Kelly Christensen. Perhaps that Christensen guy is more of a coach than the, "recruiting" trolls here will allow...

That said, Hagen is like 45s faster, on paper, than any of the Niwot squad. And, living in the mountains, they are well antiquated with hills, like the State course has. Plus, she already beat the Niwot squad at St. Vrain. What we may learn at State is: was Niwot Tempo'ing St. Vrain, or were they outclassed?

Sub-9 guy wrote:

Colorado springs recruiting wrote:

That relationship is part of the reason many suspect a certain club coach who also coaches at the high school level has been recruiting. A club coach comes in and brings with her a stud frosh class from the club team, when many of the frosh have siblings at different schools. We all know what's happening. They pushed out the old coach to make room for this.

I kind of resent the resentment though. Lots of public school coaches complain about the unfairness without bothering to build the brand. You want to compete? Start a middle school track club of your own and have a great relationship with the middle school feeder xc program. It’s the kids who can’t transfer because of CHSAA’s stupid rule that get screwed. Teachers and admin can transfer anytime they want for a better situation. Should be the same for the kids, a one time transfer for any reason.

Are some schools recruiting? Of course. Do some schools just have a brand that recruits itself? Absolutely, & that’s the key. With all of that said, I am rooting for a Rock Canyon or Fairview over a Valor. For some reason, I think Chaparral is an overlooked dark horse here.

pretty good coach wrote:

Sub-9 guy wrote:

I kind of resent the resentment though. Lots of public school coaches complain about the unfairness without bothering to build the brand. You want to compete? Start a middle school track club of your own and have a great relationship with the middle school feeder xc program. It’s the kids who can’t transfer because of CHSAA’s stupid rule that get screwed. Teachers and admin can transfer anytime they want for a better situation. Should be the same for the kids, a one time transfer for any reason.

Are some schools recruiting? Of course. Do some schools just have a brand that recruits itself? Absolutely, & that’s the key. With all of that said, I am rooting for a Rock Canyon or Fairview over a Valor. For some reason, I think Chaparral is an overlooked dark horse here.

Yeah brospeh, public schools have a lot of time for brand building?? This freaking place sometimes......