Colorado HS XC Predictions

Just how does Niwot reload pray tell?

In 2020 Niwot had 4 seniors - Volf/Herrera/Rauba/Saia on varsity. 3 of them were scoring. They got second at RunningLane Nationals. But this meet didn’t include all of the top teams like Newbury Park. Volf went from 16:26 in 2019 to a 15:04 in 2020.

In 2021 they had one guy go from 17:47 in 2020 to 15:33 (16:20 not at RunningLane) in 2021 and another one go from 17:21 in 2020 to 15:42 (16:28 not at RunningLane) in 2021. They got 8th at nationals and were the #3 Southwest team there. But this time no top teams were missing from this race.

2 Battle Mtn juniors went 1-2 at the National High School Trail Championships 2022.

They will be lead by 3 stud juniors this year - Brunner, Middaugh, Sinoloa. All broke 16:20 in the 5K last year.

let’s see if they find 2 more guys for 2023.

I wonder how Cheyenne Mountain is gonna respond to losing 6 varsity seniors.
They return:
Leavings - 14:41
Kerrigan - 15:47 not at RunningLane
Bayer - 16:25 / 9:49
Wade - 16:42 / 9:54
Klein - 9:59
O’Day - 9:59
Bergeron - 10:24
Some more depth

Fun fact: 3 younger brothers of people that just graduated:
Aiden LeRoux - 10:23 3200
Brogan Collins - 10:22 3200
Jacob Exton - 10:33 3200

I guess they won’t be too bad in 2023 either.
They return:
Klein - 9:59 3200
LeRoux - 10:23 3200
Collins - 10:22 3200
Exton - 10:33 3200
Porter - 10:39 3200

Watch out for Coronado in 2 years.
Potts / 9:50 - 10
Roth / 10:09 - 10
Davidson / 4:36 - 10
Campos - 4:42 1600 - 9
Pontious - 4:40 1600 - 9
I read in another thread that they have another 4:31 freshman coming in.

Niwot, Coronado, and Valor Christian will all be near the top of the nation.

Maybe Mountain Vista as well because of their 2 sub-16 incoming sophomores and their ability to reload very well.

Any love for Chap? Dark horse? Brennan Draper is going to be in the mix if he stays healthy. IF…

Yeah Chap will be good to as well as Rock Canyon.

The real question is whether Rocco Culpepper is going to Niwot or Fairview. He can make top 7 for either of them.

His brother Levi goes to Fairview (which is not a great but not a bad team) but Cruz went to Niwot.

Cherokee Trail at their 5k TT this AM.

15:16, 15:34, 15:42, 15:43, 15:57, 15:58, 15:59.

Where was CTs tt at? If on their campus course they give Newbury a run. That course is easily a minute slower than running lane. If at Highline canal or something like that is still an insane result

Nobody is giving Newbury Park a run. They have the strongest 1,2,3 in the country. I think they will go 1,2,3 at nationals just like last year. You would probably need to have at least 3 all-Americans to beat Newbury Park.

Their 4&5 already broke 15 minutes too and they have another guy that will be up with them.

But the times here make Cherokee Trail the podium contenders though.

Jesuit LA’s top 7 are stacked too.

Question though. Is Cherokee Trail better than Cheyenne Mountain was last year?

That depends on where their tt was held. Their home course is not easy and has some big climbs. Many kids run faster at Norris. So if this was at the home course that i know that this is much better than ChMtn.
Giving Newbury a run was of course hyperbole.

Seems like the teams at the top are stronger than ever before.

Jesuit LA, Cherokee Trail, Jesuit OR (if they find a #5), Great Oak, and Granada are all going to compete for the second spot behind Newbury.

Maybe some more teams too.
Some of them might be better than Cheyenne Mountain was last year.

In 2019 CT hosted an impromptu league meet after snow cancelled. most everyone showed up. only 4 guys under 17 with winner at 16:27. Top 5 rsn right about same times at Norris Penrose few weeks later.

Last year Cheyenne Mountain averaged 15:47 at the state meet. Cherokee trail is certainly going to challenge that time this year.

No way. Cheyenne Mountain was the best team in Colorado history. CT will be lucky to win State.

It does seem to me that Cheyenne Mountain’s 2021 nonsenior track times were better than Cherokee Trail’s nonsenior 2022 track times.

Cheyenne Mountain’s 2021 nonsenior track times:
1600:
4:16
4:16
4:25
4:26
4:28
4:36
4:39

3200:
8:57
9:23
9:37
9:38
9:44
9:47
9:54

Cherokee Trail’s 2022 nonsenior track times.
1600:
4:17
4:19
4:26
4:32
4:38
4:39

3200:
9:26
9:39
9:51
9:51
10:01
10:02

Notice I only listed only 6 1600 and 3200 times for Cherokee Trail because one of their top 7 returners only did 800’s last track season. He ran a 16:11 at RunningLane last year.

But Niwot’s 3200 times were better than CT’s times too. Would be interesting to see how their 5K time trial would look like if they ran it now. They seem to have some potential especially if Rocco chooses to go there, even after losing Zane and Joey.

It would also be nice to see how Mountain Vista would do in a 5K time trial. They lost 5 of their top 7 but return 4 guys who already ran a sub-16 at RunningLane. But they only run 2 mile races at the beginning of the season.

In fact, it would be cool to see CT go head to head against MV and Niwot

I’m excited to see these teams race each other at NXR.

Some Cherokee trail runners will be in this race

co.milesplit.com

Aurora City Championships 2022 - Entries

MileSplits official entries list for the 2022 Aurora City Championships, hosted by Grandview High School in CO.

Link:co.milesplit.com/meets/495527-aurora-c...