These HOKA time trials may be good for runners to set track pr's but that's all they are. For one I noticed the DGN and HC trials were run back in August. Even xc meets held that early would be rather irrelevant at this point of the season. And of course we all know that track and xc can be different for runners. Guys who tend to rely on speed more than strength are going to perform better on the track because they can take advantage of their faster leg turnover. The best guys are the ones who can run equally well on both.
However those times run were pretty darn good for so early in the season.
MileSplits official Men's Results (V) formatted results for the 2022 St. Charles North XC Invitational, hosted by St. Charles (North) in St. Charles IL.
Palatine finally ran all their varsity guys in the varsity race. Except Cassassio (last years state runner) was missing. Hasn’t raced in a month so he might not be back. But anyways, palatine really showed their talent and depth.
deeper than last year obviously. Next year they bring back 3 scorers, a junior who almost made varsity, and have a really good freshman coming in next year.
top 5 solved for next year. And I’m sure there will be guys coming out of nowhere like this year
Pretty weak invite, plus at 2.94 those times aren't really fast. It's 100 yards short of a full 3miles. It's shorter than Detweiller. Add at least 15 seconds per man.
Looking at the Aurora Sectional there's a good possibility York or Sandburg or both may not make it to state. The other sectionals are unbelievably weak.
Well here we are- second week of October and Conference meets are on the horizon.
A) Benet still ain't that good. Somebody earlier in the thread tried to say I was dumb for saying they aren't good, but when did we start calling 14:58/15:28/15:39/15:48/15:58 good? Sure that's not "bad", but that's maaaaaybe a top 10 team if a lot of other teams blow up. Maybe they taper well but I stand by my previous statement, these guys need another year before they're actually good.
B) Plainfield South is close to untouchable by any other IL school. 48 points at FTTF against DGN, then hung 35 on OPRF at Palatine? We haven't seen scores like that since early-mid 00's York squads. This team is on al cylinders and after the Nike Twilight meet in Terre Haute where they were 3rd behind the current #1 and #2 in the nation according to MileSplit they are gonna steamroll the rest of the state in a month. Plus did anyone else see their HOKA Postal Nationals submission? 9:23 team avg for the top 5 with a month to go is bonkers.
C) Downers North and OPRF are nearly identical now. In a hypothetical meet on Athletic.net, they're only separated by 11 points. That's remarkably close for a meet using only season's bests. However, Daniel Johnson can't seem to finish a timed 3 miles so if that's the case in November you may see the Huskies mauling the Trojans.
D) Hinsdale Central may not even trophy. In fact they shouldn't even be favored to trophy. It's nuts with the top 3 they have that it might not happen but their 4 and 5 are practically cement boots to that team. Watcke could win individually (not out of the question after Terre Haute) and they could still be out of a trophy. Good lord they couldn't buy a couple 15:30 guys at this point. 800m speed will never be indicative of 3 mile strength.
E) On the individual side there's really only a few guys in contention. Watcke of Hinsdale Central, Viger of Plainfield South, Close of Neuqua Valley, and Newhart of OPRF. Newport got dusted at FTTF and hasn't done much to show he's super fit since. Mines of Joliet West can't seem to finish a meaningful race, and did Whitney of Lane Tech just straight up quit? How long can a 9:06 guy stay completely irrelevant? You would think he could've at least laid down a 14:45/15:00 by now. Is the dude ok?
F) Time to start NXR/NXN talks. In the Midwest it's Carmel (IN) and Plainfield South who are the clear cut favorites to move on. Is anyone else in contention? At Terre Haute the 4th place squad was Noblesville (IN) who was 35 points back. They might secure an at-large, but does another IL team make it out? I'd say possibly DGN, but OPRF hasn't raced a challenging 5k this year and Hinsdale Central was 8th at the Twilight anyway. Top 3 teams there in September broke the standing 5k team avg record, held by Neuqua's 2016 squad (5th at NXN).
G) Way-too-early 2023 predictions: hypothetical meet has DGN as the favorites with Barrington and Hersey as the other trophy teams. There's plenty of time remaining for that to shuffle around but it'll be interesting to see who emerges from this track season with the best 3200m depth among those teams. If Plainfield South does indeed win this Fall, they'll be hard-pressed to pick up another trophy as their projected 2023 finish by this years' times has them 9th. That's with 3 returners from their Varsity and the likely #1 returner in the state. Ouch.
H) If you thought I wasn't gonna mention it, you've been juked harder than the 2022 Dukes- they ain't qualifying this year. They're in the toughest Sectional, with a roster that cannot get the job done at KLM October 29th. They may have some individual qualifiers, but it may be worth the trip to Hinsdale to watch the greatest American high school sports dynasty fail to make the state championships for the first time since 1963. 59 years ago. Absolutely crazy to imagine it happening, but it very well could.
The top 2 York guys (seniors Hill and Bryk) finished as their last 2 guys in the most recent race. They better be on come sectionals. Or they won’t get to race as team OR as individuals at state.
Speaking of NXR, Hinsdale Central could qualify if their top 4 are on point (one of those guys (the older Gamboa) had an off day at Nike town), AND they find a fifth. This region is so strong and deep that we might see 2 at-large berths this year from this region. California (outside of Newbury park) and Southwest aren’t as strong as they used to be.
for way too early 2023 predictions…Benet Academy could possibly challenge for a title. I don’t think they graduate anyone from their varsity.
For Plainfield South to win next year they’re gonna have a lot of work to do. They got 3 varsity guys coming back, but 2 jv guys will need to improve during the offseason
Barrington has not just no seniors, but 4 sophomores scoring. They could go back to back in 2023-2024 for winning state titles. And become one of the best in the nation in 2024, possibly contending for a national title