The teams you picked...what?
HC - solid choice, but fast 4x8s, 800s, and 1600s don't predict fast 3 mile times or even the grit of a cross country race in general. You could point to Watcke's wins at FTTF and his Sectional last year, but he still wasn't top 10 last year at State. Then went on to get beat in every event he ran in at Track State. Super talent, super fast, obviously a hard worker, but he hasn't proven he can produce in a state championship race where he's the favorite/a contender since his 800m title.
York - Returns a 10:18, 10:27, and 10:39. Return zero under 15mins and 3 under 16. Aidan Hill will be likely collecting an all-state spot, but he can't carry them alone. Solid top 4 (more like 3), then it drops off a cliff. Not this year.
Neuqua - Some of the best coaching in the state, as evidenced by how many trophies they've collected in the 2010s, but return only 3 under 16. Super tight spread on their 4-7 however, which will score well in big meets. Zac Close closed (pun intended) the track season like a madman. 9:25.95 3200m for a So is huge. Barring injury, he'll be a top 10 guy on Nov 5, leading a solid core. Trophy? Maybe.
Palatine - Legit trophy contenders with a sub 15 returner and 3 more under 16. Can the 5th close the gap? That's the key. 3200m depth coming out of track is 9:37/9:45/10:12/10:14. Bit of a drop off after those first two, but not a calamity.
Benet Academy - ??? Either you go there and want to plug them or have a friend that does. No fault there as it's fun to include who you like, but I can't see where the rationale lies. They're gonna need another 2 years of development.
WWS - Similar to York, maybe a bit better. They had a solid core of returners going into track, but then only put 2 guys under 10:00. They regressed after XC. Time will tell.
Teams you didn't mention that are 100% trophy contenders.
1. Plainfield South - Return 6 of 7 from state (7th) roster and their 8th broke 16 as well. Additionally put 5 under 10:00 in track. Led by Viger who was 7th individually last year (4:19/9:27/14:31).
2. OPRF - A team that has completely flown under the radar because their times in XC last year weren't crazy fast. They had a fast #1, then a pack of 6 returners between 16:04 and 16:15. But they have some of the best 3200m depth in the state. 4 guys under 9:50 coming back and their 5th ran 10:24 in track. That's a very good group that ran fast in the event closest to a Detweiller 3 mile race. Liam Newhart (4:25/9:32/15:09) leads the way and could very likely be a top 10 guy in the Fall. This team is dangerous.
3. Maine South - In a hypothetical meet on Athletic.net using last years' times and filtering down to only returners, they'd finish 4th. 3200m depth isn't as good as the other teams mentioned, so they may be a bit of a wild card.
4. New Trier - Return 3 under 16, with Dueno-Alda (4:25/9:43/15:14) leading the way. What's more impressive is their 3200m depth. 5 under 10:15 coming back and 3 under 10. Could develop very well.
5. Lake Zurich - Return 4 under 10:00, and Dylan Meyers was already mentioned as a contender. He'll lead the way and hopefully set the standard. Could be really strong in November.
Other likely top 5 contenders -
DGN - (3200m returners include 6 under 10:10, just no low stick)
Jones College Prep - Got a low stick, but then it really tapers off to a #5 that ran 10:34 earlier this year.
O'Fallon - Similar to Jones CP, but with a faster top guy most likely.
Plainfield North - Oliver Burns is likely a top 5 finisher this Fall (despite not making state track), almost guaranteed top 10. He'll lead a solid core of returners (4 under 16, and 4 under 10:10 this Spring)
To summarize, you wanna know who's gonna be on the podium this Fall? Look at the athletic.net leaderboards for 3200m filtered down to returners. Flashy 800m and 1600m times are cool, but don't guarantee fast 3 mile races. If IL ran the 3k steeple, that'd be our best look at XC strength, but we don't so the 3200m has to do.