Based on the last 20 years of race data, the average time of the worldwide top-100 runners was calculated for men and women in each of the following events: the 10K, 10000M, Half Marathon, and Marathon. The average yearly decrease in finish times was then determined by subtracting the 2016 average from the slowest year in the range. Then, a 2021 time was projected using that trend, along with a 2% boost from super-shoes, and compared against the actual 2021 time in that event. A "best fit" linear regression trend line was also created for comparison against the actual average times over the period.
Contrary to popular belief, these graphical analyses seem to indicate the super-shoes have not improved performances for the elite men beyond prevailing trends. The women's data is a bit more ambiguous, in part because their times have been improving at a much faster rate.
This is a big result and it might be a good time to reel back in some of the aspersions cast on the record-breaking performances over the last 5 years or so. Personally, I'm not willing to give up my Vaporflys, but for an elite runner with energy and form to burn, now might be a great time to seek out a sponsorship from a non-super-shoe brand.