Am I capable of running a sub 4 minute mile?

Well you're faster than pretty much every HS sub 4 miler when they were 8th graders, so you obviously have the talent, and tbh you probably already know that. Is it likely? No. Is it very possible if you work hard and avoid injury throughout high school? Yeah.

No

I’m going to keep posting on here every now and then to keep y’all updated.

Assuming everything in your post is correct, you have some real talent. Don't let it go to waste. Does that mean you will be able to run a sub 4 mile in HS? The honest answer is we don't know. Progression arcs are different for different people. I've seen guys who ran sub 4:10 as 17 year olds never break 4 even in college and chasing a sub 4 after college. Keep working hard, stay healthy and keep learning about the sport.

Progression is so very unpredictable. Your genetic cap could be a 4:15, it could be a 3:49. Who knows? Some people react well to higher mileage and some don’t.

If you are passionate about the sport, chase that dream. Most people never run 4:32. You have a bright future, how bright remains to be seen, but you’ll never know until you put in the work to get there.

Be patient, remember that it’s important to be working smart moreso than hard at this point in your running career.

Best of luck to you!!

You’ve got talent, sub 4 is probably possible - obviously you know you need to go a little faster in the 400 probably, but I think with growing into your body more (you’ll probably gain ~10 lbs during the next few years even if you stay at that height), and doing light sprint work ~3 times a week, probably possible to shave a second or two off by this time next year. And obviously shave much more time off in the longer distance, more aerobic based events. I’m excited for you, don’t let it go to waste.
Be careful this summer, would be great to hit high mileage consistently for a few months, but sounds like it’ll be quite a jump; I’m sure you already know this but stay hydrated as it gets very humid in the south (so I hear), don’t wanna get calf strains slowing you down or something dumb like that.

Sorry brother. You have 6-8 more years running ahead minimum. I got down to 4:10 mile down from 4:50 at your age. Its a long way from 4:30 to 4:10. There is 0% chance to predict the outcome. You have to.work for every single second.

You've got great talent and those are great times for the mileage. 40 a week will make you stronger next year. Try not to do too much too fast. Sub 4 is a great goal but not many people do it in HS. I wouldn't live and die on it. Focus on being healthy and consistently progressing every year. You're going to be fine no matter what. That being said, if you want to go after 4, you're gonna to have to sharpen up your speed. You gotta get those 400 and 800 times down. You probably need to be able to run around 49-51 and at least 1:50 to have a shot at it. Good luck.

Odds say probably not.

It's not a question of probability but capability.

I say yes.

came on this thread wondering if OP was going to be Drew Hunter

Update:

I recently broke my hip(fractured iliac crest) while doing a mile TT where I ran 4:26. Ive been out for 4 weeks now, but I am cleared to get back into running tomorrow. It’s been 4 weeks since Ive ran so we’ll see how this xc season goes. I peaked at 43 miles the last week of summer and was probably around 16:00-16:10 shape before I broke my hip. This season will be interesting. I have 9 weeks until state and the first three will probably just be getting back into the groove of things then that last 6 I plan on getting back down to 16 flat shape.

Good to hear an update, but sorry to hear about your hip. Good luck this XC season!

I checked out Holly Pond on Athleticnet and it’s looks like you could break every single record on the track, including the sprints and hurdles. That would be pretty impressive even if you don’t break 4:00.

Or break his hip again trying.

You have two mothers. You are miles ahead of the game.

I meant to put neither of my parents

Guess who’s back… anyways some updates I think this year might be the year (sophomore season) struggled with injuries a lot but have recently got back in the groove never hit anything more then 38 miles since i last posted and 43 is still the most i’ve ever done in a week but done a few workouts recently 4 miles in 5:05 for a progression 5:17,5:12,5:07,4:44 and 5 miles tempo at 5:07 pace 5:19,5:09,5:06,5:06,4:54 felt like moderate effort probably had another couple of miles in me but just turned 16 and I think i’m pretty close to the speed wise i ran 24 in the 200 last year freshman season and a few times in practice but go check out my strava Travis Barnett to watch the progress big things coming this season. YOUNGEST SUB 4 MILER EVER COMING IN JUNE OR JULY

Gonna update again after indoor is over hoping for sub 4:10 and sub 9