Official Russia vs Ukraine War Thread

Hard to believe Russia really thought they were going to march into Ukraine and take things over in a couple weeks if that. Now it is looking like they might lose this and if not lose they will never rule Ukraine that is very obvious.

Just to be clear, you're suggesting a credible theory is that the Ukrainians mistakenly thought this building contained a Russian ammunition depot and chose to strike the target with a missile specifically designed to not explode?

Are you saying you can't understand plain posts?

To recap, what was said is that it is not credible Ukraine would intentionally attack a building they knew to be housing Ukraine prisoners.

But that is not difficult to imagine Ukraine targeting a location they believe to house opposing military assets. Because they do exactly that all the time.

As to having bad intel. It is far from unusual. Targets are often selected based on leads fed from informants who prove unreliable.

Heck, the US conducted an entire war based on bad intel (Iraqi WMDs).

Last week, the Ukraine side made a broad public appeal for citizens in Russian controlled areas to report details and locations for Russian personnel, equipment, and even suspected collaborators.

The destroyed building had just been repurposed. Some local Ukraine workers must have delivered sheets or other supplies or performed work - and may have been told or assumed it was a guard or troops barracks. Russians might even have directly provided a bogus tip hoping to instigate a strike.

The point is one can float any number of more or equally plausible scenarios aside from Russians could only have blown it up in false flag operation and seeded transplanted Himars parts. Absent definitive proof, we have competing conjecture. Which is the point.

The ISW, MI5, and UDF are making certain claims when there is no certainty.

As to using missiles that are said to not explode. I made no comment remotely suggestive of that. Why mis-attribute that?

And whaaaat? There are missiles designed to not explode and Ukraine is using them?! You are going to have elaborate.

So, basically you make like 18 assumptions about Russians giving local Ukrainian workers false information in the hope that Ukraine attacks that location — a claim for which you have ZERO evidence, despite only hours ago saying that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. The Forbes article linked above specifically says that this has been a known POW camp for a long time. A number of groups that have analyzed satellite and photographic evidence have asserted that it does NOT look like a HIMAR strike, amongst numerous other inconsistencies with Russia’s narrative. Furthermore, Russia won’t allow independent investigators to examine the site. But, a few pieces of a HIMARs missile that may not have even originated at the same site, and you’re convinced of the Kremlin narrative.

1) You dismissed the damage assessment stating the building damage was not consistent with explosive ordnance with the statement, ". . . incorrect assumption that the Ukraine side has only one type of HIMARS ordinance".

2) You proposed that Ukraine targeted the building thinking it had Russian weaponry or soldiers.

The implication seems to be that Ukraine used an alleged non-explosive warhead on the mistaken target.

There are two problems with this.

1) It doesn't make any sense to hit such a target with the presumed non-explosive warhead.

2) There are no non-explosive HIMARS warheads.

What’s difficult to believe is that the fresh-off-the-couch walk ons that Ukraine is calling an army these days could actually hit something that they were aiming at.

I have followed this story closely and no doubt read the same articles. I see nothing remotely close to smoking gun evidence. Just the usual array of biased, weak and conflicting conclusions.

I upheld no scenario as being certain or probable.

If one actually read posts instead of simply reacting to them that would be obvious.

Which takes me back to my first observation - people believe what they want to believe - and facts barely matter, then.

Stating that Ukraine has multiple types of HIMARS rockets is not stating they are Non-explosive.

More than one HIMARS rocket type means varying blast characteristics. If “blast experts” were really conducting thorough and impartial review, that would have been considered and mentioned.

It was not, because the “expert” I saw quoted was a UDF spokesperson looking at a photo.

"A number of groups... asserted it does NOT look like a HIMAR strike".

Really? What I have not seen, nor have you cited, is even one specific expert.

This is like presenting to a jury at trial... "Ladies and Gentlemen... we have expert witness which exonerates the accused! But we are not going to tell you who the expert witness is, and will not provide their credentials, will not present them for cross examination, nor will we provide their specific testimony. But trust us, they exist and totally back us!"

I am seeing a pattern here where "evidence" which fits views you hold is accepted on faith, while that which does not is dismissed as "Russia's narrative".

As to admitting "independent" investigators to the site. It is doubtful whether a third-party observer would be independent - and that anything they discover would not be discounted if non-conforming. This topic was already covered. It is a war zone and crime scene. These zones routinely controlled. The Ukraine side also routinely excludes access to attacked sites - and you have not mentioned it at all. Does this mean they are hiding something?

Please note that the range of explanations I allowed for DOES include a Russian False Flag operation.

But what you call "evidence" (like supposed expert blast analysis), I do not, hence I see no basis for definitive conclusion one way or another.

'[HIMARS'] GPS lends them a high degree of precision that makes targeted strikes extremely effective... The range, precision, and mobility of the HIMARS has allowed Ukraine to strike at Russia’s logistics and supply lines without fear of immediate retaliation. They’re blowing up Russian ammo depots and logistical centers with impunity."

The US admits to providing real-time intelligence, satellite data, and targeting telemetry.

It's unsurprising HIMARS is performing as advertised, striking far behind front lines with pinpoint accuracy.

lockheedmartin.com

High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS)

The flexible, affordable and highly effective Precision Fires launcher.

Link:www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/...

I have also followed this story closely and have no doubt read the same articles as you. I see nothing remotely close to smoking gun evidence to suggest Ukraine was responsible. Just the usual array of biased, weak and conflicting conclusions from the Russian side as they try to cover up more of their war crimes.

You upheld no scenario as being certain or probable, though presented a convoluted scenario - for which there is no evidence, credible or otherwise - about how Russians told Ukrainian workers that they should strike that particular building.

If one actually read posts instead of simply reacting to them that would be obvious. I read your post. It was moronic garbage. I’m sorry that I’m not impressed with your sophomoric logic.

Which takes me back to your first observation - people believe what they want to believe - and facts barely matter, then. And you clearly want to believe the Russia hasn’t committed thousands, if not tens of thousands, of war crimes since February.

In this thread you've specifically dismissed the credibility of the British Intelligence and ISW assessments which is weird if the only "expert" you've seen cited was a Ukrainian Defense Forces spokesman.

It's almost like you're posting Russian talking points on multiple social media outlets and have trouble staying consistent with what you've said on this specific outlet, but it could be that you just suck at critical reasoning.

+1. Great post.

The US are providing Ukrainian soldiers with the highly sophisticated weapons and the coordinates of Russian military sites based on US gathered intel. All the Ukrainian soldiers have to do is enter the coordinates and press fire.
America F*** Yeah!

aljazeera.com

US readies $1bn weapons package for Ukraine: Report

Package, which could be confirmed on Monday, is expected to include more ammunition and armoured medical vehicles.

Link:www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/6/us-rea...

America F*** Yeah!

The weapons are gps guided. Anyone can enter coordinates and press fire.

news.sky.com

Ukraine War: Ukraine fires HIMARS rockets at Russian positions

Ukraine has released video showing what it says are the deployment of the feared US-supplied HIMARS. They can fire GPS-guided missiles more than 50 miles at Russian positions.

Link:news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war-ukraine...