What will Mantz run for the marathon as a lifetime on?

Lifetime pb*

Autocorrect

It depends on if he only runs American courses. If he does NY and Boston most years, he might get 2:07 or 2:08...maybe faster if he gets a lucky Ryan Hall monster tail wind. Happens once every 10 or 15 years for Boston.

If he goes to London or Berlin he'll hit 2:05 on a good day.

I think it all depends on if he can avoid injury or if he has to clean up his form to avoid injury. He is as tough as they come and had a highly accomplished college career. An American records would not be shocking (especially with continual shoe improvement). Jared Ward's 61:42/2:09:25 seems like the bare minimum that he will get to, and I expect him to go faster.

2:07 - he's not as talented as Rupp. He's tough against collegiate and domestic competition. He's never taken on a pack of 2:04 / 26:50 Africans. To his credit, he will certainly try but I expect a lot of late race fades and DNFs. He's not very efficient or fluid and that will bite him in the longer races.

Mantz is really old and has already been in the cheater shoes for quite a while, plus we don't know how long he has been on the good "supplements." His half time barely escaped being chicked, so he is probably about a minute or two faster now than the women, 2:13 or so. He can maybe improve a couple more minutes. Did he drop out of byu after all these years without a degree even though he still has a lot of eligibility left?

Futuremaking wrote:

Mantz is really old and has already been in the cheater shoes for quite a while, plus we don't know how long he has been on the good "supplements." His half time barely escaped being chicked, so he is probably about a minute or two faster now than the women, 2:13 or so. He can maybe improve a couple more minutes. Did he drop out of byu after all these years without a degree even though he still has a lot of eligibility left?

Old? Mantz is 25 years young, so he has many years in front of him provided he does not get injured. Top class marathon runners often reach their peak between the ages of 27 to 32. He still has time on his side. With regard to his studies, I think he has a degree in electrical engineering from BYU. With that in mind, and if his running goes pear-shaped, he would presumably have plenty of employment options.

Back to the original question. I think Mantz has 2:05:00-2:07:00 potential, similar to Ritz, even though I think Dathan was more efficient for road racing.

Futuremaking wrote:

Mantz is really old and has already been in the cheater shoes for quite a while, plus we don't know how long he has been on the good "supplements." His half time barely escaped being chicked, so he is probably about a minute or two faster now than the women, 2:13 or so. He can maybe improve a couple more minutes. Did he drop out of byu after all these years without a degree even though he still has a lot of eligibility left?

"barely"

You're full of crap

Yes, marthon runners do peak at 27-32, so Mantz does still have a little time. Yes, Mantz is 25, but he also basically didn't train during his age 19 and 20 years, so he doesn't even have as much development as a typical 25-year old runner.

cramister wrote:

Futuremaking wrote:

Mantz is really old and has already been in the cheater shoes for quite a while, plus we don't know how long he has been on the good "supplements." His half time barely escaped being chicked, so he is probably about a minute or two faster now than the women, 2:13 or so. He can maybe improve a couple more minutes. Did he drop out of byu after all these years without a degree even though he still has a lot of eligibility left?

"barely"

You're full of crap

You mean "full of truth?" Or do you operate on the "alternative facts" side of things. Mantz has a best time in the half that is barely better than a woman has run it. That is a fact, a true fact.

I think it more likely that Mantz runs well on a tough course/and or miserable conditions and threatens for a world medal in said difficult circumstances than he runs a fast time on a pancake and perfect temps.

Futuremaking wrote:

cramister wrote:

"barely"

You're full of crap

You mean "full of truth?" Or do you operate on the "alternative facts" side of things. Mantz has a best time in the half that is barely better than a woman has run it. That is a fact, a true fact.

The fastest women of all-time, by almost a minute, ran 2 minutes slower than Mantz in his debut. That is quite a large margin

2:07:14 came to mind for some reason.

Mr. Slowpoke wrote:

Futuremaking wrote:

You mean "full of truth?" Or do you operate on the "alternative facts" side of things. Mantz has a best time in the half that is barely better than a woman has run it. That is a fact, a true fact.

The fastest women of all-time, by almost a minute, ran 2 minutes slower than Mantz in his debut. That is quite a large margin

Given advances in shoe technology 2:08 high best case scenario. I know he just ran a great half marathon as a debut but he’s older than the average college graduate and Idk how much more he can improve.

13:08 - 27:15 - 59:42 - 2:06:27

John Wesley Harding wrote:

13:08 - 27:15 - 59:42 - 2:06:27

Nice numbers and actually quite realistic for someone of Mantz’s potential.

The only question I have, or the main question, is his ability to transfer his phenomenal strength to the marathon where biomechanics play a large part and where his running technique, unorthodox as it is, is still a question for me.

Low 13:10s, 27:15, 1:00:10, 2:07:20 (2:06:30 if he someday runs a fast European marathon on a good weather day). Maybe make an Olympic team or two.

He could get down to 2:07 or 2:06 on a flat, fast course. Given his lack of kick in shorter races, the marathon will be his best event. Could go under 60 in the half too. Would love to see him compete in World Cross next year.

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

He could get down to 2:07 or 2:06 on a flat, fast course. Given his lack of kick in shorter races, the marathon will be his best event. Could go under 60 in the half too. Would love to see him compete in World Cross next year.

+1 All of this.