Harambe wrote:
Btw, the picture is even worse for natural immunity. Efficacy against hospitalization with Omicron is basically zero for someone who has recovered from COVID but not vaccinated (see table S3):,
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full.pdf+htmlBasically vaccines work. If anything the data has gotten stronger since you started doomer-posting about Omicron (after thankfully shutting up for a month when your Delta predictions didn't pan out; still waiting for the mea culpa there).
The data hasn't gotten stronger. 52% VE against hospitalization versus 95-99% VE against hospitalization does not sound stronger in my frame of thinking (maybe it does in yours). As for the study you are claiming makes claims that natural immunity is not real (this study is mostly a study comparing the severity of outcomes between Omicron and Delta, not reinfections versus breakthrough infections), it actually supports the idea that natural immunity is real and robust. From the study
"Notably, the risk of symptomatic hospitalization was markedly reduced among cases who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection ≥90 days prior (0.32 vs 2.08 symptomatic hospitalizations per 1000 person-days at risk among cases with Omicron vs. Delta variant infections, respectively). Although ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 infection history is imperfect because many infections may have gone untested or may not have been documented in a patient’s EHR, prior infection among individuals with a history of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result should be accurately coded and false positive PCR tests are rare. Thus, the finding of a reduction in severity of Omicron in patients with known prior infection is compelling evidence of an intrinsically less severe infection, rather than only different (more immune) persons becoming infected with the Omicron variant."
If you actually read the study and not just the summation (pay attention to table 2):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full.pdfThe sample size for hospitalizations is extraordinarily small, especially for the previously infected (235 Omicron hospitalizations in total, likely only one of which was a person with a previous infection). So your claim is likely based on a sample size of one. However, what you find for cases is eye opening and reinforces the power of natural immunity. There were 16,929 documented cases with S-gene target failure in this study (Omicron cases). Of them 43 were among people with a documented prior infection (0.25%), 8,419 were among individuals with no vaccination in their EHR (which is not the same as unvaccinated, but we will go with it), 869 were in individuals who had received a booster dose (5.13%) and 7,641 were in individuals with two doses or less (45.1%). Let's compare that to overall data from California. where at that date there had been about 5.5 million confirmed COVID cases out of a population of 39.56 million people. 66% of the population is vaccinated and about 30% of the population is boosted.
Previously infected individuals represent 13.9% of the population, but represent 0.25% of the Omicron cases in this study (about 55 times less than one would expect)
Boosted individuals represent 30% of the population, but represent 5.13% of the Omicron cases in this study (about 6 times less than one would expect)
Double vaxxed or less individuals represent 36% of the population, but represent 45.1% of the Omicron cases in this study (about 20% more than what one would expect).
So, at least according to this study, natural immunity is more than 9 times more effective than triple boosted immunity, and almost 69 times more effective than double vaccinated immunity or less at preventing infection. Natural immunity is powerful.