xczvzxcv wrote:
24:25 8k, Pomona-Pitzer's average recently in xc, is pretty close to 15:15 5000m pace. Newbury Park just had something like 14:03/5/6/15/44, so yes, I do think that they could easily run 15:15 5000m pace for 8k. That's close to 20 seconds per mile slower for the first four guys, which is very much sustainable for an 8k. They might average 24 flat.
You're just missing context. They ran really fast, but it was an incredibly fast course. In addition when you're training for a 5K you do not automatically run as well at 8K. The 60mpw they do makes them lightly-trained for the 8K distance, but close enough to optimally trained for a 5K. Especially with a tougher course this will be compounded, where they'll be on their feet for 10 minutes longer (or more). Also, Pomona-Pitzer averaged 24:09 at Nationals, so not sure where you're getting your numbers from.
More to the point if Newbury Park averaged 24flat let's play that out.
4 guys average 23:45, 5th guy 24:45.
Pomona-Pitzer goes to 100 points. Newbury Park scores 5-6-7-8-77 = 103. So they still narrowly lose even under this crazy optimistic scenario.