Would Newbury Park have won D3?

Nah WPI would manhandle those kids

It would be close. 14:41 at Woodward Park is about a 195.33 speed rating, so about 14:23 on the track. So that matches up pretty favorably to the D3 teams. The jump to 8k may affect them a bit, but I doubt it would do much. Their 5th man may be the weakness that would put them in 2nd, but I doubt they would finish any worse than that.

my two pennies wrote:

It would be close. 14:41 at Woodward Park is about a 195.33 speed rating, so about 14:23 on the track. So that matches up pretty favorably to the D3 teams. The jump to 8k may affect them a bit, but I doubt it would do much. Their 5th man may be the weakness that would put them in 2nd, but I doubt they would finish any worse than that.

They would win D3, but we should stop acting like it's so amazing. It's 2 really fast families that moved to the town, plus a decent #5.

D3? They'd roll D1. The NP team is a consummate display of the will-to-power inherent in the youth today. The Apollonian archetype of the lithe and agile youth(NP) overtaking the decrepit and senile(college athletes) king and assuming the throne is currently playing out. Soon, the most dominant athletes in the nation will be pubescent boys. Their undeveloped musculature belies the V12 engines that lay beneath the hood, primed and ready to destroy. In 5 years, the first high school team will be allowed to compete with the big dogs. Within the decade, it will be the norm for 15 year olds to sign to the likes of NAU. Soon enough, the most highly sought after recruits will be fresh out of junior high. Not long now until Newbury Park is recognized as the harbinger of the new wave. If you're over the age of 20 you might as well hang it up.

Lacctic's conversions don't really make sense. They converted a 15:00 5k to a 25:35 8k at Louisville for prenats but they converted 15:00 to 25:09 for nationals. It was the same course, in, if anything, better conditions for prenats. If you looked at prenats conversion, PPs top 5 average is like ~14:08. Presumably reality is somewhere in between those two, but it is hard to say where.

wpimorelikewtf wrote:

My teammate insists they would have won D3. The rational is that their 14:41 avg at Woodward would average like 14:10-15 or something on a track. Lacctic had 14:23, 14:29, 14:30 for PP, william, fartburg. I’m still not convinced, especially if we’re talking an 8K. But safe to say it could be very close... Thoughts?

https://cifstate.org/sports/cross_country/2021_recap

I guess there is something you don’t know- D3 XC is 8k. That is a lot different than running 5k. No, they would not beat the team that won D3.

I guess there is something you don’t know—how to read. I said in op that the jump to 8k is what would get them, you jabroni idiot.

wpimorelikewtf wrote:

I guess there is something you don’t know—how to read. I said in op that the jump to 8k is what would get them, you jabroni idiot.

Yes you did! My fault, sloppy reading. We agree. Nice reply, I deserved it.

Midwest fan wrote:

Lacctic's conversions don't really make sense. They converted a 15:00 5k to a 25:35 8k at Louisville for prenats but they converted 15:00 to 25:09 for nationals. It was the same course, in, if anything, better conditions for prenats. If you looked at prenats conversion, PPs top 5 average is like ~14:08. Presumably reality is somewhere in between those two, but it is hard to say where.

A 14:30 conversion means your performance is an average performance for someone with a 14:30 PR. Most people with 14:30 PRs are probably a bit faster at the end of the xc season while peaking, and a bit slower at pre-nats while not peaking. So you need to run faster at the end of the season in order to be labeled a “14:30 guy.”

That and the course probably ran faster at nationals. It’s pretty clear from all the times that it was faster. Historically, a 14:08 average for a top 5 would be rather surprising (even when correcting for the 13ish seconds from new shoes).

I’m working on getting highschool data into Lacctic so we could actually run this simulation.

There was certainly something off about the times/distances at D3 nationals. A ton of runners ran 45+ second personal bests over 8k. Claremont Mudd Scrips averaged 25:08 at pre-nats then 24:26 at nationals.

They’d need a stronger #5 to be competitive but even then they would need to compete at 5k. The extra 2 miles would be the big difference between HS & College.

my two pennies wrote:

It would be close. 14:41 at Woodward Park is about a 195.33 speed rating, so about 14:23 on the track. So that matches up pretty favorably to the D3 teams. The jump to 8k may affect them a bit, but I doubt it would do much. Their 5th man may be the weakness that would put them in 2nd, but I doubt they would finish any worse than that.

There is 0 chance Woodward is only 18 seconds slower than a track. We did the analysis, people run 40+ ish seconds faster on the track.

Let’s peg it to 3k times —

German 8:34 / 14:24

Nico 14:28 / 7:56 3k

Newbury Park has 3 boys sub 14 right now, 1 sub 14:10, and 2 more sub 14:30.

I don’t think you can use the CMS average as evidence about the nationals course or timing being off. CMS ran some different guys at nationals, and some guys who clearly were not at full strength 6 weeks before nationals. Most guys who ran both had very similar times.

stats and analysis wrote:

my two pennies wrote:

It would be close. 14:41 at Woodward Park is about a 195.33 speed rating, so about 14:23 on the track. So that matches up pretty favorably to the D3 teams. The jump to 8k may affect them a bit, but I doubt it would do much. Their 5th man may be the weakness that would put them in 2nd, but I doubt they would finish any worse than that.

There is 0 chance Woodward is only 18 seconds slower than a track. We did the analysis, people run 40+ ish seconds faster on the track.

Let’s peg it to 3k times —

German 8:34 / 14:24

Nico 14:28 / 7:56 3k

Newbury Park has 3 boys sub 14 right now, 1 sub 14:10, and 2 more sub 14:30.

Are the 3k times from within a few weeks of the XC times, or is it six or seven months later (which would be a lot for a 17-18 year old)? It probably makes a difference.

You nailed it. It's like people claiming that Sahlman can run 13:39 because Nico has run 13:24.

Yes, of course. D3 winner in your link had a team time that was 5 minutes slower. Duh.

Newbury the GOAT, no question. Looks like they'll be as good or better next year too. Bizarre that 30+ boys ran over 17 minutes.

stats and analysis wrote:

my two pennies wrote:

It would be close. 14:41 at Woodward Park is about a 195.33 speed rating, so about 14:23 on the track. So that matches up pretty favorably to the D3 teams. The jump to 8k may affect them a bit, but I doubt it would do much. Their 5th man may be the weakness that would put them in 2nd, but I doubt they would finish any worse than that.

There is 0 chance Woodward is only 18 seconds slower than a track. We did the analysis, people run 40+ ish seconds faster on the track.

Let’s peg it to 3k times —

German 8:34 / 14:24

Nico 14:28 / 7:56 3k

Newbury Park has 3 boys sub 14 right now, 1 sub 14:10, and 2 more sub 14:30.

So instead of all this speculation about their 'theoretical' 5000 PBs, why not use real ones. Everyone here assigns these flamboyant times that these kids have 'conceptually' run, but literally haven't. Then, worse yet, extrapolate these non-existent PRs to 8 or 10k. All this for kids who literally don't have verifiable times over standard distances (3000, 5000, 10000, etc.) and none of whom have ever even finished a race longer than 5k.

All this is to say that all the math and wild speculation means little when compared to other athletes (the leading D3 teams, for example, or even Mantz) whose performances, especially over longer distances, we are absolutely certain of given they were measured to the 1/100th of a second.

Maybe they're all pretty good, perhaps some will eventually be great, But assigning these 5000 times that they have never run as unofficial PRs, then extrapolating to even less official 8 or 10k PRs is a little too speculative for me to take seriously. The whole 'could break 29 for a track 10000 right now' type of thing that pops up every once in a while for high school runners is ridiculous and rebutted by the following:

Well, go ahead and do it.

There's a reason every teenager these days doesn't easily break the old (and in the case of 10000m, very old) US HS records. Everyone winning a State Meet isn't necessarily an all-time great. Are 4 of these guys beyond Rupp, or even Pre at the same age? I believe not - and I'd suggest none are close to the relatively recent Lukas V.

By the way, another, unrelated point:

These races are being run in Vaporflys. Let's see how that works out on a wet, muddy, slick course.

What the high school track PRs of these kids that could beat the NCAA D3 team?