Jonathan Gault breaks down the men's race for you below.
"I would hope if everything goes well, that he’s sub-2:10 [on Sunday], anywhere from 2:08 and 2:10," said Ben True's coach Ray Treacy. The American course record is tecnically Meb Keflezighi's 2:09:13 but Salazar's 2:08:13 from 1981 that was 148 meters short is equivalent to 2:08:40ish.
Pulling for all of them.
Very surprised by the comments from Kandie's manager. "I don’t think at the moment Kandie can run 2:03, 2:04. " Maybe the manager meant 2:03,2:04 on NYC course, in which case the point is fair, but from the context provided I thought they were speaking in general. This doesn't make much sense to me - if Kandie, a 57:32 man with amazing consistency over the half marathon distance, isn't confidently in sub 2:05 shape, why is he running a marathon? 62:00 is nearly 4.5 minutes slower than 57:32. If a 60:00 runner wasn't in shape to run 2:09, wouldn't they be universally considered insufficiently fit for the marathon distance?
Secondly, we hear about a longterm, perhaps year long (or longer?) lingering issue for Kandie. So much so that after the marathon his activity needs to stop so that it can heal and he can eventually train without pain. Managing injuries is of course just a part of the sport, and especially a tricky part of marathoning. But for the agent to be so open about this issue makes me think it is actually quite serious, and I just wonder if they're not being a bit unreasonable thinking the knee will stand up to 26.2 miles on a hilly course.
Kandie is only 25, so I am somewhat surprised by the quick turn to the full distance. It seems he could afford to postpone until he has an optimal buildup, and take the time early in his career to be cautious about long term injuries. But of course I'm sure these athletes have tremendous pressure to 'strike while the iron is hot' and so on.
Anyways, I'm a tremendous fan, and I very much hope Kandie produces a magnificent debut. But the candor with which his agent speaks of these issues concerns me. (After all, how many times have we heard from management that an athlete was fit and ready to go, seen a DNF before 20 miles, and then get told that an unruly ankle or a spiteful hamstring has been interfering with training for weeks).
There are loads of E. Africans who go to Valencia and RAK to run super fast halfs and then go out and face plant when they run the full. And the fact that Kandie may have lingering injury issues also reflects how a lot of these fast half guys are raced into the ground by their agents because they can make more money running a couple of halfs and 10ks on the track than a similar quality athlete can make running two marathons in a year.
Also, don't assume that it will be a fast race from the get go. Bekele has only run flat marathons and has a very quick turnaround from Berlin. He is not going to be looking to do anything other than get a win. And the rest of the field is simply not capable of running a very fast race on the NY course. It will be typical NYC championship style racing with a lot of tactics. Probably 2:08 for the win with the usual huge surges on 1st Ave and going into Central Park.
Each of the above two posts are very reasonable assessments.
I hate reasonable assessments!
I say Kandie blasts the second half in 61:48 for a 2:05:53 win.
1. Kandie 2:05:53
2. Nageeye 2:06:54
3. Bekele 2:07:04
...
6. True 2:09:47
I would saw Bekele can win in around 2:04:50
Bekele HAS to win this if only for Kip to show his face in NYC at some point!
And no mention of Augustine Choge in the preview? He's bound to finish a "debut" marathon at some point...
quasilogarithm wrote:
Very surprised by the comments from Kandie's manager. "I don’t think at the moment Kandie can run 2:03, 2:04. " Maybe the manager meant 2:03,2:04 on NYC course, in which case the point is fair, but from the context provided I thought they were speaking in general. This doesn't make much sense to me - if Kandie, a 57:32 man with amazing consistency over the half marathon distance, isn't confidently in sub 2:05 shape, why is he running a marathon?
$$$$$$$$$
It's a race not a math exercise
carmine9 wrote:
Pulling for all of them.
Cop-out.
Believe it or not, Bekele is going to break Kandie around mile 20.
The one factor working in everyone’s favor is the weather, which should be good for the race. However, I don’t see anybody running faster than 2:07:xx in NYC, especially with no pacing.
I'm pretty excited for True's marathon debut. Despite keeping a low profile and being a lone wolf/off the radar a lot, he has a long history of consistently good (if not always great) performances. I was pleasantly surprised by his 2018 NY Half win, and it sounds like he has responded well to marathon training post the olympic trials 10k. I happen to think a sub-2:10 goal on a course like NYC is a big aggressive for him, but maybe his background in XC running and XC skiing mean he's better prepared to shine on a course like NYC. Should be interesting!
DC Doctor wrote:
The one factor working in everyone’s favor is the weather, which should be good for the race. However, I don’t see anybody running faster than 2:07:xx in NYC, especially with no pacing.
You do know what the course record is, right? One of 2 or 3 guys is capable of doing that. Yes, they really are.
El Keniano wrote:
carmine9 wrote:
Pulling for all of them.
Cop-out.
It's a cop-out to root for Bekele, Kandie, and True to all run well?
How so?
MI Doctor wrote:
DC Doctor wrote:
The one factor working in everyone’s favor is the weather, which should be good for the race. However, I don’t see anybody running faster than 2:07:xx in NYC, especially with no pacing.
You do know what the course record is, right? One of 2 or 3 guys is capable of doing that. Yes, they really are.
Right—3 men ran 2:05:59-2:06:26 on that course, with no pacers, the second-to-last time the event was contested.
You guys are going to have a stroke when True is leading at 16 miles.
Then change your minds about five minutes later.
Kandie will break the course record by over one full minute, running 2:03.XX with a sub 61 last half.
Wow just saw the Bekele presser and he seems to be fit as a fiddle, super emaciated like for Berlin 2019, go cat go !
deathinparadise wrote:
Wow just saw the Bekele presser and he seems to be fit as a fiddle, super emaciated like for Berlin 2019, go cat go !
Glad you thought so. We are about to publish the piece on him soon for the front page. It was really neat to talk to the GOAT. He's super small and tiny thats for sure.
Here is our info on the others from the press event.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/11/ben-true-has-a-sponsor-molly-seidel-kind-of-discusses-her-buildup-and-is-abdi-nageeye-the-man-to-beat/If you cant wait for our Bekele piece to come out, you can find all of our video interviews here:
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/11/the-professional-runners-talk-before-the-2021-new-york-city-marathon/Looking forward to the Bekele special ! So is Choge running or not ? If he is it sounds like it could be his last chance to actually "debut" after a couple (or only one ?) DNSs...