Mike_Milburys_Shoe wrote:
Does the 55k qualifiers include the extended qualifying window?
Yes it covers everything from 9/1/19 to current day.
I'm curious with the larger window if this list also includes a lot of people who are double counted. People who BQ'd in multiple races between then and now, probably more than the number who are double counted in a normal, shorter qualifying window (unless findmymarathon is sophisticated enough to not double count people).
Great minds think alike. Looking at the way they've done it, it looks like purely performances not performers. I went to New York 2021 to investigate and have confirmed that as the BQ% = the number of runners they have listed in this chart. You'd think the number would be reduced somewhat if double (or even triple) counts were removed.
I have 2 or 3 qualifiers in those races. I haven't looked at the specifics of the race dates but there are some double counting for sure.
FWIW I'm BQ-15+ (not quite -20 in an official race) in this period and have zero amount of worry.
I was intrigued by this post. I looked up the BQ% as well for NYC 2021. https://findmymarathon.com/bostonmarathonqualifiers-2022.php confirms that NYC had 7.7% qualify for Boston, however if you do the math thay should be 4,089 qualifiers (53,109 finishers) not 1,928 qualifiers as indicated in the chart thay confirms the total # of BQ. Makes me think they are only counting 1 BQ per person.
louisz wrote:
confirms that NYC had 7.7% qualify for Boston, however if you do the math thay should be 4,089 qualifiers (53,109 finishers) not 1,928 qualifiers as indicated in the chart thay confirms the total # of BQ. Makes me think they are only counting 1 BQ per person.
There were only 24,947 finishers at NYC this year
BAA sent out a reminder email today that you still had 3 days to register. I can't remember them ever doing this in the past. Sure, SOP changes year to year, but is another possibility that registrations are down / might not surpass available spots and they are panicking? Guess we will know soon enough.
Hardloper wrote:
louisz wrote:
confirms that NYC had 7.7% qualify for Boston, however if you do the math thay should be 4,089 qualifiers (53,109 finishers) not 1,928 qualifiers as indicated in the chart thay confirms the total # of BQ. Makes me think they are only counting 1 BQ per person.
There were only 24,947 finishers at NYC this year
Which checks out perfectly with the math...
To zdf's post that is interesting. Maybe the 2 Bostons in 6 months thing.
old shoe wrote:
FWIW I'm BQ-15+ (not quite -20 in an official race) in this period and have zero amount of worry.
"FWIW" -- it's worth nothing. Who cares and why are you telling us?
That would be fantastic. Would bet we here back pretty quick if they don't even fill up.
hear*
Mike_Milburys_Shoe wrote:
That would be fantastic. Would bet we here back pretty quick if they don't even fill up.
20k runners registered this year. Over 9k were shut out. 22k ran the virtual. Many who were qualifiers. Others ran Chicago the day before. It will sell out. I don’t know why you’d assume you’d get a response quickly. They have to verify over 30k racers. Just be patient and accept that the time table is probably similar to prior years.
My prediction? -6:52
zdf wrote:
BAA sent out a reminder email today that you still had 3 days to register. I can't remember them ever doing this in the past. Sure, SOP changes year to year, but is another possibility that registrations are down / might not surpass available spots and they are panicking? Guess we will know soon enough.
Not likely. More probably, they want to avoid people trying to register next week. It's usually a 2-week period, and especially if you ran a marathon last weekend, you might not be in a rush to sign up. In addition, Boston was less than a month ago, so people's mindset might not be 100% into the usual process again. I expect they're trying to proactively manage the headaches of people complaining they missed the sign-up period.
It all comes down to how many of this race's qualifying times were run by the same people across different marathons. There are about the same number of qualifying times run in the US as in 2019 (-4:52 with slower QTs) and 2020 (-1:39).
from: Boston Athletic Association <
> via auth.ccsend.com
date: Nov 12, 2021, 3:27 PM
subject: Reminder: Boston Marathon Registration Closes TONIGHT!
3 emails in one week. Can't wait to see what happens 🍿
I’m calling over 7 min. Let’s say 7:16. Lots of antivaxxers staying home using it as an excuse they’re not registering when we all know they didn’t train hard enough.
gonna leap ahead: assuming a normal qualifying window and a full field size, do you all think 2023 (yes, 2023, not 2022) will see a return back to "normal" cutoffs?
zdf wrote:
from: Boston Athletic Association <
registration@baa.org> via auth.ccsend.com
date: Nov 12, 2021, 3:27 PM
subject: Reminder: Boston Marathon Registration Closes TONIGHT!
3 emails in one week. Can't wait to see what happens 🍿
+1. I've run 10 years in a row and I've never received a reminder email, let alone multiple reminder emails in a week from BAA asking, practically begging for registrations. Cutoff will be minimal.
My official guess is double the 2020 cutoff.
-3:18
If there are same number of qualifying times run as in 2020 when the cutoff was (-1:39), you would have to assume there is next to no cutoff this year....Why? 1) a subset of those qualifying times are run by the same people 2) vax requirements 3) 2 Bostons in 6 months.