2021 Women's XC Thread!!! Predictions Analysis highlights Championship anticipation!!! N.C State vs BYU vs suprise???

FastTuohy wrote:

By this, it looks like Donaghu is not returning to Stanford so they have lost one of their top runners from last year. Heymach, Lawson return along with the underclasswomen such as Dudek and Jenks. Someone needs to step up just to get to the level of last years team. Heymach could be pretty strong given that she got to 4:05 and something like 15:35 last Spring. Jenks was continuously getting faster.

https://gostanford.com/sports/cross-country/roster

Any news on Dudek’s health?

NCAA finish order.

1. Stanford

2. BYU

3. Arkansas

4. NC State

N.C. State won’t be in the mix when it counts. The coaches there have ruined more talented runners than any other program in the country.

At some point they need to figure out that - run them into the ground - isn’t a viable training philosophy.

Please provide evidence. 2nd in the country last year with a bunch of burnt out runners?

Do you know how to use the internet? They had the best recruits over the past 15 years. One nice finish of 2nd place when they have the most talent of any team, does not make your point.

pack it in pack it out wrote:

N.C. State won’t be in the mix when it counts. The coaches there have ruined more talented runners than any other program in the country.

At some point they need to figure out that - run them into the ground - isn’t a viable training philosophy.

I'm not even sure why I am responding to this ridiculous statement? It must be because it is such an uninformed, false, and "knows nothing about NC State Training" statement! First, NC State and BYU are the only two horses in the race for the title, the rest are fighting for 3rd and 4th. Second, Coach Hennes is one of the best at development and progress (Her daughter alone is proof of that.......not a 5 star recruit and now an NCAA Champion)! Third, NC State is not a cookie cutter training program. They are not a high mileage program, and they individualize their training into groups based on where their athletes are. And lastly, there is obviously a reason why they have made the NCAA Championship more than any other Women's program..........they have a team culture that women want to be a part of.

Stan Ford wrote:

Do you know how to use the internet? They had the best recruits over the past 15 years. One nice finish of 2nd place when they have the most talent of any team, does not make your point.

This simply isn't true. I think you're only focusing on the most recent 1-2 years and not the past 15 years. Yes, they've had very good recruiting classes, but clearly teams like Stanford and Oregon are bringing in more of the top recruits consistently over the past 15 years.

Nc state

BYU

Arkansas

COLORADO

Stanford

NC state 3 in top 12, 5 in top 25

Top true freshman thorvaldson and rauber

Ezrun wrote:

Nc state

BYU

Arkansas

COLORADO

Stanford

NC state 3 in top 12, 5 in top 25

Top true freshman thorvaldson and rauber

I’m not sure if this has ever been done before, but if all are healthy, NC State could put 5 in the top 15 this year…….Steelman, Chmiel, Tuohy, Starliper, Dominique. Always tough to keep all healthy, but they are all training together presently. We will see if it stays this way?

7empest wrote:

Ezrun wrote:

Nc state

BYU

Arkansas

COLORADO

Stanford

NC state 3 in top 12, 5 in top 25

Top true freshman thorvaldson and rauber

I’m not sure if this has ever been done before, but if all are healthy, NC State could put 5 in the top 15 this year…….Steelman, Chmiel, Tuohy, Starliper, Dominique. Always tough to keep all healthy, but they are all training together presently. We will see if it stays this way?

I think this is pretty ambitious, if no other reason there are a lot of fast runners on other teams (AL - 2 or 3, Stanford - 2 or 3, BYU - 2+, AR - 2+, etc) so the numbers start to add up. I think 5 in top 25, while hardly a sure thing, would be a great performance for any team - unless a lot of runners do not perform up to my expectations for whatever reason. But, if you threw those 5 into last years results all 5 on a good day this year could have been in last years top 20, maybe 15. I just don't think that will repeat.

Why does everyone think Marlee starliper is going to all of a sudden be a top 20 Runner. I've seen a bunch of people mention her name as if they're really confident she's going to be a top 20 Runner right away

I think Savannah Shaw has a much better chance to be a top 25 Runner. She had a 1540 5 K last season... I don't think starlipers ever been capable of running nearly that fast. And she wasn't really a prolific cross-country Runner except for a few races senior year. Honestly I doubt she'll make the top seven for the team. I mean I could be wrong she could have an amazing comeback but after missing a whole year with injury , I don't think it's realistic that she's going to be anything close to a top 20 NCAA cross country Runner

Don't get me wrong I think Marley starliper is is a really good runner with a lot of potential for the future. But Claire Walters beat her at NXN senior year. And she was more of a mile specialist with a few good distance performances

I have no idea how fit Starliper is this year. But 2019 NXN was a bad race for her. The next week she was barely beat by Dudek at FL, 6 seconds off the 35 year old course record. If she is at full strength she could easily be in top 15 - just as many thought Dudek would be last Spring (not knowing the injury - and where Donaghu was).

What was starlipers injury anyway? Stress fracture? That would be some recovery. She'd have to get back to where she was at her best and improved by quite a bit to be a top 20 Runner. It's going to be really interesting to see n c State versus BYU. If both teams have their top five healthy should be really good battle. If they have to rely on someone else it would be tough for either team to win then unless that Runner has big-time approvement.

That was the very best race of their careers for both starliper and Dudek. and they had each other to push them and it was an absolute Sprint to the Finish. So it's not really that incredible that they were six seconds off the course record

I mean I guess my point is it's not like that was some amazing achievement. Training techniques get better, equipment gets better, shoes, nutrition, I mean look at Katelyn Tuohy she obliterated course record so being 6 seconds off of course record, even for a very storied course like that, doesn't mean they would be top 20 NCAA runners. If they repeated that performance in the ncaa's they'd probably would have been about 50th depending on the year... it's a 6k and toys her courses

Anyway I don't think Dudeck had any realistic chance of going top five or top 10 or even top 20. I think she was running at 100% in races where other more seasoned Runners were running at 90%. She burned herself out and got injured by not pacing herself for the season. Remember Donahue saying that she basically trained alone so I'm sure she wasn't going all out in those races where she barely beat Dudek. Haley Hedberg was 55th, Cali Logue was 115 or something like that. Dudek was 125th...

Also you have to remember starliper was injury-free her whole High School career so to expect someone who just came off a year-long injury of not running to not only be at her past Peak but a good bit better would be an incredible comeback

Agreed! These threads always devolve into putting favorite Runners on a pedestal. How are those three girls doing that broke 9:30 in the two miles last year? That was some amazing achievement. Oh wait no one came even close and we didn't have more than one girl break 9:50. Brooke Rauber should be a good addition 4 NC State, girls a real Warrior!

I don't know I think a lot of guys are just looking at someone's very best race. If you look at a high school Runner and they're progressing and doing pretty good and then they have one or two outstanding races it's not really clear whether those outstanding races are a breakthrough to a new level or just few weeks where everything goes right. Regression to the mean is an interesting phenomenon

I would not take Starliper lightly when she is back to full strength. She made that 4:37 mile at Millrose in 2020 look awful easy and ran 9:54.75 as a junior with no competition at the Loucks games. She said she had a side stich the whole race at NXN.

Don't sleep on New Mexico as they are loaded with great transfers. Tough team