Centro goes home devastated.

runnerdave wrote:

Swedish Pride wrote:

Couldn't disagree more. Kawauchi, grinding hard, pushing his body to the limit in tough conditions vs Centro trying to slow the field down to win on a lucky kick.

Kawauchi's performance was gutsy, and even fast, considering the weather.

My point, which I thought would be obvious, is that both races were flukes. Yes, I love the gutsy Karauchi too, and if you want to put some $$$ on him winning another Major, let me know.

Centro's not a fluke. He came in 4th in the London Olympics and only got better. He's not the fastest of the fast but not getting into the finals here is partly bad luck—being in this fast heat. Who achieves an Olympic record in a semifinal? But when you're not the fastest of the fast you live and die by tactics, the field around you and luck. So it seems fair enough, although I am devastated.

I just watched the replay and I don't know what the naysayers are talking about. Centro put himself in a good position but just didn't have it in the tank. It happens... It is as if most of these fools yapping have never run a race in their lives. Hocker ran a great effort to qualify and I hope he runs well in the final.

I think Centro ran a great race. I felt he was in great position throughout the race. Being out in lane 2 the entire race is not going to move you from 9th to 1st. So he did the best he could with what he had on the day. I do think however that he probably showed up past his peak. Even for the time trial he ran he must have peaked before that. He just didn’t have a kick to produce on the last lap.

It’s like when you feel amazing in training knocking out great intervals with short recovery etc but then you get to a race and you can run good but just can’t seem to dig that but harder.

Also, the LRC article about the race has an interview with centro saying

“I think I just put too much emphasis on being like right off the shoulder with whoever’s gonna lead it,” Centrowitz said. “In this race, it was Jakob and then then Stewy. And I think I should have just probably settled in a little bit and gone more for the ride where I was kind of finding myself fighting to get in position, and I was never really in a position. I was in lane two, lane three at some point, so you know when they’re running the Olympic record in the heat, you can’t be out in lane three and wasting energy like that.”

Centro was never off the shoulder of the leaders and you’re not gonna lose that much energy from lane 2.

Except run extra meters.

@mgcentro your move

* wrote:

Centro did run faster than Hocker in the semis.

LOL...he ran faster than alot of people who also FAILED to advance. It's a race, genius. Funny, if sad response.

Not sure if you’re inexperienced or just didn’t watch attentively.

Every lap in lane 2 is 7 extra meters. Centro ran no less than at least 10 extra meters compared to the men who finished ahead of him. That’s about 1.5 seconds. His effort is probably worth 3:32 flat, but he wasted energy and distance, and that’s rookie business.

Even if he is 1 second faster, he qualifies. He ran a tactically poor race, and one would think his time trial would have prepared him to tuck in and ride the wave.

It’s likely he was arrogant in his fitness and thought he’d be able to handle whatever they threw at him. He was not.

At least he tried as best as he could. Between 800 and 1200 he was "killed" - ran 55.7. Hocker ran 57.3 and then you have a lot more to kick with, even though Wightman ran faster for the last 300. But there will be no 57.3 in the final. Not even over 55. It will be a 3.28-race.

Kick is something you can summon when you have energy reserves left.

Therefore:

1) Centro was in 3:33 shape and that's what he ran having no energy reserves left for the kick.

2) Centro was in 3:31 shape, but wasted his energy reserves running in the 2nd and even 3rd lane - a tactical blunder.

I mean, a runner of his caliber surely knows, that running outside the first lane is sensible at a slow pace, so one can stay at the front and ready for the moves / kick. At a fast pace running by the rail is the best option, then switching to 2nd / 3rd lane for the kick when needed.

I'm getting a slight suspicion that our (still) reigning olympic champion has a weak feeling / judgement of pace. First, running too fast at his mile TT and now running on a 2nd lane in a 3:31-3:32 race...

Centro ran his last 400m in ca. 56.0 for 3.33.69.

If he would have been in the 1st Semi, he would have had to run his last 400m in ca. 53.5 for 3:34.5 to snag the last "Q" from Fontes.

Centro ran 53.0 last lap for his 3:35.3 at the olympic trials, which is very comparable to what Fontes and Hoare ran in the 1st Semi in Tokyo. He probably would have been pipped at the line by both, just like he got pipped by Hocker at the trials, so 1st Semi would have been not much better for Centro.

That quote seems like a great analysis from someone who knows what he's doing. This semifinal was much more of a time trial-type race than a normal semi race and he should have adjusted his tactics accordingly, which should have been to stay on the rail and not waste energy to gain position. I think if he were to do that he would be in the final.