CDC: Myocarditis is 27 to 219 times more common in males Cole Hocker's age post-vaccination than expected

twoggle wrote:

rojo wrote:

https://www.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/myodcarditis.png

Rojo,

In order for those CDC/VAERS numbers to really mean anything, you have to have an estimate of the *reporting rate*. 1% - 2% is a pretty good estimate based on what the CDC claims is the reporting rate for death and what research claims the reporting rate is for anaphylaxis and based on an independent review by researchers. Then take the number of reported cases and divide by the estimated reporting rate to get a reasonable estimate of the actual case count as opposed to the reported case count.

Rojo,

Just to follow up on the table you presented, I wanted to give sample calculations:

As of July 16, there were 352 *reported* cases of myocarditis (excluding pericarditis) for men aged 19-29. So, if a scientist wants to compare this result to the “expected” number of cases, the only way to do so is to estimate the actual cases. For example, using a 2% reporting rate, the actual cases would be:

352 / 0.02 = 17,600 cases

Then you can compare that number with the expected number in that population group for that period of time. The same type of calculation can be performed on any symptom or outcome. The bottom line, in my opinion, is to avoid being led down a path of “scientific gibberish” by looking for papers or scientists that take into account the reporting rate when calculating the incident rate of … anything. Then make sure the estimated reporting rate is backed up by some data and logic.

One other technique some are using is to compare reported cases for this year to cases reported to the same database in past years. There is pluses and minuses to doing this, imo.

Obviously, the above is only discussing possible risk, not the benefit side of the equation.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

phd candidate wrote:

The title is obviously misleading and 219/4337287 is a whopping... 0.005 percent. That's TINY.

Right but here is the question - could Cole Hocker guarantee (and since you are a phd candidate you will know what that means) that he would not be of the 0.005 percent? It is irrelevant how unlikely it is, it could never be ruled out (ask Christophe Lemaitre)

Because the chances of complications from the vaccine if you don't take it are 0.000%

Again, that's the end of this discussion. Hocker has done the right thing.

I was more criticizing the way rojo framed it. If my chances of getting crushed by a falling construction beam on my run are multiplied by 219 tomorrow, then I'm still going to go outside.

That said, I don't think it's the end of discussion. I'm not so sure the chance of Hocker getting reinfected after forgoing the vaccine is exactly zero. I would expect that it's very small, but I don't think it's *exactly* zero. Maybe I'm wrong. In any case, I hope his natural immunity protects him.

jamb inn wrote:

My family has a history heart issues, and without a cardiologist opinion on my own status, i refuse to get the vaccine.

Meanwhile this board has a bunch of intolerant liberals ready to inject door to door. Thank you intolerant a ssholes.

Part of what keeps me coming back here is the unfettered free speech. Go read the barstool comments on similar topics, pretty much the same opinions. If you want vaxxed go get it, if not leave the rest of us the f uck alone.

I get the sentiment here. However, since there are so many people who don't want to get the vaccine (or "vaxxed" as is the derogatory term), this pandemic will be prolonged - variants will continue to pop up, more people than needed will be hospitalized, etc. I just pray it doesn't mutate to affect children since my children can't be vaccinated.

As long as we have a portion of the population that is selfish to the point that they won't get vaccinated because they have this fantasy of independence, that puts others who have no control at risk. Think of those who can't get the vaccine because of other issues, immunocompromised individuals, children (especially if it mutates to affect them) - not getting vaccinated is not just affecting you.

If you don't want to get vaccinated, you at least need to make that decision using the calculus of how it affects others and not just yourself - be willing to say you're doing it not just because you think you'll be fine, but that you are ok with putting those other people at risk and allowing the virus to incubate, mutate, and spread to people who have no choice.

It's not exactly zero. Reinfections occur.

covid complications versus side effects wrote:

. I just pray .

Talk about following the science!!!!!!!Any peer reviewed studies on the efficacy of prayer?

Hey rojo, this happen to any vaccine recipients yet?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1274102

Or since you like focus on athletes, this?

https://www.mmamania.com/2021/2/13/22281525/khamzat-chimaevs-team-details-recent-covid-19-symptoms-thought-he-was-going-to-die-edwards-ufc-mma

Or this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-athlete-covid-19-ahmad-ayyad-john-hopkins-trnd/index.html

StoPre wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

This is exactly why, on the cusp of the most important athletic even of his life so far (and who knows, maybe ever?) for him to have taken the vaccine with ZERO real idea of what it could do to him (as in reality we all have done - except we aren't Olympic level athletes), would have been about the most idiotic and careless thing he could have done.

And that is the end of this and really there is no more discussion.

Your point is very different than Rojo’s.

Rojo made up some nonsense about poor, elderly brown people overseas getting the vaccine before Cole.

Yes I know. I think Rojo created a narrative that he thought made sense and would justify Hocker not taking the vaccine - in reality he could have said, well, this ^^

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

StoPre wrote:

Your point is very different than Rojo’s.

Rojo made up some nonsense about poor, elderly brown people overseas getting the vaccine before Cole.

Yes I know. I think Rojo created a narrative that he thought made sense and would justify Hocker not taking the vaccine - in reality he could have said, well, this ^^

Agreed, but unfortunately for poor old Rojo it was nonsensical.

This is such an awesome post - I love dealing with horsesh$t like this.

1) What do I mean by zero real idea? I mean he, like all of us don't know what could happen to him. Question for you, as (like myself might I add) I'm going to assume you have been vaccinated. Did you get a lung x-ray done prior to vaccination and one done after? Did you have any kind of physiological assessment done prior to vaccination and after? Or did you just drive up in your car twice, a month apart and get a needle stuck in your? Let me repeat, you - like me, like the vast majority of people who have been vaccinating simply trust that we are protected from covid (which the science would say we are) - but we had no clue if or what possible side effects could be from it. For most of us any side effect (like even minor lung inflammation that in day to day life we can't even feel the effects of) is minor and meaningless. For an elite athlete that scenario could be very different

2) Clinical trials that lasted 6 months. Most vaccine development and trialing is 2-4 years before FDA approval. I mean if you don't know what the deduce from that fact then I really am wasting my time with you

3) "a small and statistically insignificant number of side-effect cases". Wow, f--k you, you selfish and self-centered twat. People have died from complications after taking the vaccine. It doesn't matter if it's 1 in 1000000000, that's a person who was someone's son or daughter, mother or father, friend or colleague that died. Fantastic that it's statistically insignificant for the pedaling or your agenda - it's real world very significant for some unfortunate people. I actually can't believe you said that.

Here is a little lesson for you - try seeing life and certain situations through other peoples perspectives. You are not an elite athlete, you are not an Olympic athlete. And you had no idea what the vaccine could do to you when you took it. Congratulations on being in the majority that was fine or at least will never be in a position to find out that they aren't. Dork.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

This is exactly why, on the cusp of the most important athletic even of his life so far (and who knows, maybe ever?) for him to have taken the vaccine with ZERO real idea of what it could do to him (as in reality we all have done - except we aren't Olympic level athletes), would have been about the most idiotic and careless thing he could have done.

And that is the end of this and really there is no more discussion.

Brother, you seem to be forgetting about this respiratory virus called SARS-CoV-2.

Might wanna give the symptoms of that a google.

Painful fearmongering. How can you lecture someone about vaccine adverse effects being 'someone's son or daughter' and seemingly ignore the disease the vaccine prevents.

COVID has caused far more symptoms, hospitalizations, and death per unit of population than the vaccine.

All of this sanctiomony could be easily directed toward COVID itself but with MORE evidence behind it. Spare me.

P.S. The vaccine is cleared from the body after a few weeks and is given as 2 doses. Do you have a reason why more than a year of safety data is needed, especially since you seem to be positing acute, short term effects that would have affected Hocker nearly immediately? If you don't trust large phase 3 trials to judge safety then guess what -- NOTHING is safe for you. RUN FOR YOUR LIFE AHHHHHHH!!!!11

Hocker getting covid is 100 % BS.

Thanks for the link, keep sharing this type of info

GREAT ARGUMENT! But think about this. You're worried about the 1/100,000 having a significant side effect of the vaccine? Myocardititis - 1/20,000, or .005%. Those are definitely concerns.

However Non-vaccined risk of dying of Covid: 1/100....or 1%

So your argument is that it's not worth the risk of myocarditis, or another side effect with a .005% chance. But a 1% chance of dying without the vaccines is no big deal? Again, you'd rather risk a 1/100 shot of dying (without not counting other complications that can come if it like myocardititis, lung issues, fatigue, long term unknown) to avoid a 1/20,000 or more chance?

Try relying on simple math dude. Look at that and your whole argument looks ridiculous.

“Fantasy of independence?!” Shoot. I forgot that the Constitution and the fallen soldiers represent a fantasy. Silly me.

Fee free to move to China. They will help you get rid of that fantasy real quick.

Two massive threads of Rojo being corncobbed. Sometimes you have to know when you're on the wrong side of an argument, doubling down just makes a person look ignorant. Is this really the level of critical thought that an Ivy League education buys?

i smell a liar wrote:

Hocker getting covid is 100 % BS.

You do know that you can be infected with multiple different Covid variants at the same time. There was a case in Europe I think Belgium where a lady had both alpha and delta variants and ended up in hospital, of course she was unvaccinated but it’s possible to be affected and there has been numerous occasions since early 2020 where unvaccinated people have contracted Covid multiple times….

Beside we can all choose what evidence fits our narrative to make it vaccines evil and free speech to question it is good.

I’m sure we could make a case for certain person, maybe even Rojo, was doping if we cherry pick what we want to look at. I did like the sunspot and stockmarket analysis and it’s true

Yawn^9 wrote:

“Fantasy of independence?!” Shoot. I forgot that the Constitution and the fallen soldiers represent a fantasy. Silly me.

Fee free to move to China. They will help you get rid of that fantasy real quick.

Wait until you hear that George Washington MANDATED immunization for his soldiers.

There are your heroes. Disgusting. Lol