I’m reporting this thread AND the initial post as far too mature for letsrun.com.
Great effort. Wanna try sprints, hurdles and field events?
I’m reporting this thread AND the initial post as far too mature for letsrun.com.
Great effort. Wanna try sprints, hurdles and field events?
JWH you done great. Quibbles:
1. I’d boost Mu and Coburn by 10% each. Coburn because I trust only Kiyeng to beat her. She’s rock solid at getting medals and thus is the weakest field in years. Mu I think has a major ability gap on everyone . She might not win but Goule, Almanza can’t close like her- nobody can. If she loses I bet it’s to Rogers.
2. I’d boost Purrier slightly. I agree Kipyegon is a gold medal lock and Muir looks great. I suppose there’s some worry about the Ethiopian no. 1 but I like Ellys chances and think there’s a gap after the top 4.
3. Too high on Hoppel/Jewett for me. Jewett I don’t trust in the rounds. Hoppel is compromised by injuries I think. Combine 15% of medal for me
4. I’d swap Bor and Frerichs’ odds. It was bad news that the Kenyans looked good last time out on the men’s side lap-counting fiasco aside.
5. Too high on Chelimo. Not happening he will be 6th-9th.
6. Too low on Nuguse. If he makes the finals and it’s a super fast race, he will run really really fast and you never know.
7. Keter/Ferlic slightly higher it’s just wide-open enough who knows.
8. 10k guys no chance combined 0% not happening.
Appreciate the list and thoughtful analysis!
Appreciated your effort in putting together thoughtful analysis (and your humor.) I'll be watching the races with your predictions in mind!
Awesome thread, really enjoyed reading it and find that I mostly agree. Expecting 4-7 US medals.
This thread should be featured on the front page!
Nice work. If give Schweitzer a better chance. Though still unlikely.
My issue would be that Rogers and Wilson are rated too highly based on the fact that Mu is probably going to take one of their medals.
Well done.
The Brojos need to hire you to do all of their previews, not just for the Olympics.
Insightful. Witty. Well thought out and only a few spelling/grammatical errors.
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
Well done.
The Brojos need to hire you to do all of their previews, not just for the Olympics.
Insightful. Witty. Well thought out and only a few spelling/grammatical errors.
Take note BroJos!
Well done. Not much to disagree with, I guess I would have put Schweitzer higher than 3% due to her talent level, but maybe those days really are gone
The USA 1-2-3 is possible though. That being said, I'd agree with you that behind Mu, Rogers and Wilson aren't really separated from a ton of contender who can also run 1:56-7.
First off I would like to say this was probably the best post I've ever read on here. Well Done! Very good well reasoned analysis with a bit of sas to top it off.
My List:
1. Athing Mu 90%
2. Emma Coburn 60%
3. Clayton Murphy 55%
4. Raevyn Rodgers 50% -
5. Elle Purrier St. Pierre 40%
6. Cole Hocker 35%
7. Mathew Centrowitz 34%
8. Ajee Wilson 25%
9. Paul Chelimo 20%
10. Bryce Hopple 19%
11. Galen Rupp 15%
12. Isaiah Jewett 14%
13. Courntey Frerich 12%
14. Hillary Bor 10%
15. Karissa Schweizer 5k 9%
16. Emily Sission 8%
17. Grant Fisher 7%
18. Woody Kinkade 6%
19. Yared Nuguse 5%
20. Molly Seidel 4%
21. Bernard Keter 3%
After this I think their medal chances are basicly 0 so im gonna stop.
I deleted the explanations and then rearranged. I didn't include anyone after 16 because I consider their medal chances to be closer to 0% than 1%
birdbeard2 wrote:
6b. Courtney Frerichs - 20% - SLEEPING ON HER AS WELL, BUMPED HER FROM 12 TO 6, NONE OF THE PEOPLE AHEAD OF HER ASIDE FROM MURPHY AND CENTRO HAVE SHOWN ANY ABILITY TO MEDAL THUS FAR
Bogus - Murphy and Centro are the ones who have medaled, sure, but how do Hoppel’s run in Monaco last year (or his 4th at World’s for that matter) or Hocker’s historically fast closing splits not show “any ability to medal”?
John Wesley Harding wrote:
birdbeard2 wrote:
6b. Courtney Frerichs - 20% - SLEEPING ON HER AS WELL, BUMPED HER FROM 12 TO 6, NONE OF THE PEOPLE AHEAD OF HER ASIDE FROM MURPHY AND CENTRO HAVE SHOWN ANY ABILITY TO MEDAL THUS FAR
Bogus - Murphy and Centro are the ones who have medaled, sure, but how do Hoppel’s run in Monaco last year (or his 4th at World’s for that matter) or Hocker’s historically fast closing splits not show “any ability to medal”?
I guess semantics, mainly. They have medaled. He has shown potential to get to that level but hasn't reached it and has looked like absolute butt this entire year. Him medalling after his results this season would be an enormous shock. He ran 1:47 a couple weeks ago, mang.
Perhaps he's playing 5D chess and peaking at the right time, but if so, he sure got close to not even qualifying.
Great post. Agree with many of these, here are a few opinion differences:
-I'd put Ajee Wilson over Rogers
-Hoppel at 3%. He's looked terrible all year, including at the trials and clearly isn't his peak self like 2019 or 2020. The difference between him and Murphy is that Murphy had one great race which showed he has gold medal potential.
-Paul Chelimo at maybe 20-25%, I'd pick him for top 3. Silver medalist in Rio when he was relatively unknown and barely made the team, so he's looking even better now that he's in good form. Obviously a more stacked field, but Chelimo gets it done at the biggest stages consistently.
-Jewett at 2%. Long season and his strategy just won't work at that level of competition. Probably won't make the final.
-Aside from Galen and Molly, the remaining U.S. marathons have a 0% chance of medaling. All four have run consistently terrible since the trials and probably aren't among the actual top 3 Americans. Would be surprising to see any of those four in the top 20 honestly.
-I'd bump up Karissa Schweizer's chances to around 7%. She's definitely world class and could well round back into that 14:26 form for Tokyo, but it's more likely that it'll take 14:10 form to medal.
I concur with the compliments on the post. If I were to simplify it and add my own revisions, I’d put all athletes in 4 categories:
1. Likely medalist/I’d be surprised if these athletes didn’t medal: Athing Mu
2. Realistic chance at a medal, but I’d be wholly unsurprised if it didn’t happen: Emma, Centro, Chelimo
3. Unlikely medalist, but it could happen in the right race: Rogers, Wilson, Rupp, Murphy, Purrier, Hocker
4. No realistic chance to medal: Everbody else. ((Btw. I’m not a person who sees 14th place in the Olympic 5000 as a failure.))
norseMN wrote:
I concur with the compliments on the post. If I were to simplify it and add my own revisions, I’d put all athletes in 4 categories:
1. Likely medalist/I’d be surprised if these athletes didn’t medal: Athing Mu
2. Realistic chance at a medal, but I’d be wholly unsurprised if it didn’t happen: Emma, Centro, Chelimo
3. Unlikely medalist, but it could happen in the right race: Rogers, Wilson, Rupp, Murphy, Purrier, Hocker
4. No realistic chance to medal: Everbody else. ((Btw. I’m not a person who sees 14th place in the Olympic 5000 as a failure.))
I clearly forgot to put Frericks in my category 3. She’s an unlikely, but possible medalist.
Chelimo is underrated. I'd give him 25-30% chance of medaling.
I like your list. But Abdi is 44 on paper maybe closer to 50. I am starting to realize prime exists for track not too much in the marathon as it seems at 40 plus it just matters more about recovery and balancing life's priorities.
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
adizero Road to Records with Yomif Kejelcha, Agnes Ngetich, Hobbs Kessler & many more is Saturday