jonathon wrote:
Are you talking about that long hilly tempo run he did on sweat elite?
These are his last work-outs in a marathon build-up. They are usually not super great work-outs. Any marathoner will tell you that their worst work-outs are usually the last ones in their training cycle. Marathon fitness isn't like shorter events.
I don't actually agree with this, I've run between 2:10-2:15 (don't want to give specifics because I don't like drawing any potential attention to myself) and some of my best workouts ever were at the end of a marathon buildup. Sure, sometimes you don't have a great one, but if you don't have any that somewhat indicate a fast marathon then you should be worried. I'm talking a long effort at or near a good marathon pace. You don't have to be right on, but if you are struggling to run a 10+ mile workout within 10 seconds of your supposed marathon pace then you should be a little bit worried when you're a month or less from the marathon. I do not know what this workout was that the post is about, but it sounds like it was a longer workout and that Jake didn't look great and it was also not very fast. We're in the home stretch here, you should be able to run near marathon pace for these workouts even with all the mileage.
Now to the person saying you'd be surprised if he runs 2:12, look at the weather. He has run 2:10 twice, both on cooler weather days. This is going to be 75 degrees and 80% humidity, he's not going to be anywhere near 2:10, very few people will. If he does somehow run 2:12, he'll probably be around 10th-15th place and I'd call that a solid showing.