Runner vanished in the Bay area, no trace found. Update. He's been found. RIP: Philip Kreycik.

A man reported that there was an SUV parked near

Ok's SUV. Maybe he or she knows something.

Missing runner wrote:

The website says it's over 9,000 acres, which seems big enough to get well and truly lost from my east-coast city perspective.

Equivalent to a square 6 kilometers on a side (3600 hectares, or a side of 60 x 100m). It really depends on how wooded the place is. No trees and you can just fly a drone over it. Wooded, not so easy.

Still hard to be trapped in an area that small though, lost or not. Just pick a direction and you're out in half an hour, unless the terrain is impassable.

Yes, but if he had heatstroke why wouldn't he be on or near a trail? And this guy was experienced. He knew how to what he had to do to stay hydrated and manage in hot temps. Also, lions are not out roaming around in 100 degree temps in the middle of the day so that doesn't seem plausible either (they are smarter than that). This points to someone that wanted to disappear for whatever reason.

Oddly enough I just got a couple runs in this very park about a month ago while in town on business (from CO). It's got great climbs/trails for such an otherwise nearly urban setting, but it's really hard to imagine a lost person wouldn't be found relatively quickly with the amount of search effort put in. Although I hope I'm wrong, some kind of "intentional disappearance" does seem most likely.

joed|rt wrote:

A lot of ultra runners and even mountain bikers I know will intentionally go off trail like they are training for the Barkley Marathons or some other invention from some guys head. It happens more often than you think, and many times it's doctors and the like taking these totally unnecessary risks.

Yes, that's a possibility. I follow a guy from San Jose on Strava who does a lot of very creative off-trail routes in the South Bay. Yes, he has done Barkley. I love exploring too, so I get it. I wouldn't call it unnecessary risks - it can be done very safely.

I found this guy's Strava, but haven't looked through it yet. I'm not familiar with East Bay trails, so someone else could probably figure out quicker if he does off-trail exploring.

Very solid runner. First run that I looked at, and he did 6 minute mile GAP (gradient adjusted pace) and faster on an 11 mile trail run with a decent 2,288ft climb/descending.

https://www.strava.com/activities/5538407404

Based on his Strava data, Philip was/is a legitimate local trail runner. I haven't checked any races he did, but in the few runs preceding his disappearance, he broke a respectable segment record and was top 10 on a couple of others.

The thing I still don't understand is why he chose what would have been about a 90 min round trip drive for an 8 mile run, leaving behind a network of better trails near him and temperatures that were 30 degrees cooler in Berkeley. I'm curious if he said anything to his wife about why he chose that particular park- heat training? Change of scenery? He could easily have run into Tilden or Wildcat Canyon or any of the other large parks that were closer to him.

I'm not familiar with the trails at the park they're searching, but based on the description of their search for him it would seem that if he's still in the park, he must have become disoriented after suffering heat exhaustion or stroke and wandered more than 100m off the trail in search of water or shade/shelter. If he tucked under something to try and stay cool (ie, he's out of plain sight) and it's far enough away from the main trails they searched, he likely won't be found for a while. It seems safe to assume at this point that he went a good distance away from whatever trail he was initially planning to run on, and is probably a ways off from any trail at all. Assuming he's still in the park.

Pretty heartbreaking if he's still somewhere out in that park, and heartbreaking for other reasons if he's not. Wishing him and his family well despite the long odds.

Stebbins wrote:

The thing I still don't understand is why he chose what would have been about a 90 min round trip drive for an 8 mile run, leaving behind a network of better trails near him and temperatures that were 30 degrees cooler in Berkeley. I'm curious if he said anything to his wife about why he chose that particular park- heat training? Change of scenery? He could easily have run into Tilden or Wildcat Canyon or any of the other large parks that were closer to him.

This is an excellent question and I was wondering the same thing. Why this particular park if he lives in Berkeley. Maybe he didn't want to run into someone he knows or that would recognize him?

They conducted a really intensive 5-day search. In such a small area it's difficult to believe he or his body is still there. For what it's worth there is a BART station fairly close to the trail head with direct transfers to OAK and SFO. Regardless, it's a very sad for his family.

Bad Wigins wrote:

GettingFasterDude wrote:

I don’t mean to be gruesome. (cougars)

And I don't mean to offend either, but it would also be a good way to be legally declared dead while slipping away to start a new life. Debts, troubles, lots of possible motives, who knows.

If no body is found, he will not be legally declared dead.

Doesn't seem like someone who can't handle an 8-mile run in the heat. People run the Badwater 135 in far more extreme conditions.

Did he have a mental health illness, addiction issues, or major financial problems? If so, I agree with those who suggest his disappearance was probably deliberate.

I've read the same kind of story about a woman once except it turns out she ran away from her family/life. They did a search for days etc. turned up nothing but she just used it as an excuse to leave/get off the grid.

I wonder if it's the same thing.

If not, I hope they're okay.

I've looked at the situation. I think he got lost and in distress and perhaps suffered heatstroke.

There's so much speculation here, and we know little or nothing about his mental health, financial status, marriage situation, etc. Now, most of the posts have been interesting and worthwhile, but, again, we know so very little at this point. We certainly can't rely on the media, who typically provide a few bad details in a report, and who sometimes take one direction and, pardon the pun, run with it, when it's only one potential angle to the story.

I will be continuing to monitor this forum thread, though. Thanks to those who have added intriguing possibilities and personal takes.

He went into wilderness. Crap happens in life. Doesn't matter how smart or fit he is.

There are multiple posts on Reddit that state he was planning to pick up family members in Stockton after his run in Pleasanton hence why he decided to run in the Southeast Bay. In addition, prior to driving to Pleasanton, there is a report that he went to drop off a package at UPS in Oakland. I find it interesting as to why the authorities called off the search relatively quickly in just 4/5 days. I think they know something the public doesn’t.

I do understand that it is in bad taste to speculate, but this is a bright guy with ample running credentials and given where he went missing, I would have to put money on that being intentional. Regardless, I feel awful for his family.

On a side note, I don't know how a person can train to be an ultra runner while having a 1 and 3 year old at home. Having two kids at those ages were by far the most challenging of my life, mentally and physically.

Bad Wigins wrote:

GettingFasterDude wrote:

I don’t mean to be gruesome. (cougars)

And I don't mean to offend either, but it would also be a good way to be legally declared dead while slipping away to start a new life. Debts, troubles, lots of possible motives, who knows.

Read the story about the woman in Lincoln, Massachusetts in 1961. Legend has it that she ran away and abandoned her family while making it look like she was abducted. Her library records show that she was reading books about kidnappings and disappearances in the weeks leading up to the time she vanished.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, a hiker got lost in a nearby park and I spent two days as a volunteer looking for him.

One thing I learned was how badly media reports can be. We were told he was an "experienced hiker who frequently hiked this park and occasionally went off trails." Based on that we assumed he had fallen or had a heart attack. He wouldn't have done anything stupid.

It turned out that he was a clueless guy who just went for lots of walks in the park. His hiking knowledge was next to zero. This greatly misled the rescue effort. Not only had he crossed two creeks and a fire road, he crossed a 200 ft wide high tension power line right of way! Following the creek or fire road downhill would have led to a road in less than a 90 minute hike. Following the power line would have taken about the same time to get to a road, but this guy was lost for two days and only found when a couple on an ATV found him a mile outside the park. Amazingly, he was okay.

In the California case, Kreycik was an experienced ultra runner, but that's no guarantee against heatstroke. Heatstroke can come on very suddenly. He probably got heatstroke, became disoriented, tried to take a shortcut out of the park by going cross country, got lost, and eventually crawled under a bush somewhere in a last-ditch attempt to get cool. Trying for a shortcut out of the park would explain why he hasn't been found near the trail.