zcxvzxcv wrote:
I forgot Laird. He's run 19.8 twice this year. I think Lyles will get him but he'll be tough.
THIS is why the 200 will be super-interesting, because you can always forget about or discount some guy who has a decent shot at placing!
Speaking of which, Lyles is still fast af, and has the stride to carry it through the 200.
The one guy I'm not so sure of is Kerley. Bednarek, Lyles, and Laird are proven in the 200 this season, Kerley is not. There have historically been LOTS of 9.90-10.00 guys whose 200's have sucked. Even another 9.86 guy like Vicaut can have a crap 200m, his PB is 20.30! Ok so Kerley doesn't run like Vicaut, but he is also a big guy now, although he has leaned out and is not as built as Vicaut. How about Rodgers, PB's 20.24; Carter 20.25; Christie 20.09.
There are plenty of fast 100m guys who will go nowhere in the 200. They tend not to have Kerley's 400m pedigree but tbh I see the 200 as much more akin to the 100 than the 400. Look at the all-time 200m list, and you will see it populated by mostly 100m athletes, not 400m athletes. Why is that? It is because if you can be great at the 100, you do it--NOT the 400. Sometimes not even the 200. This suggests that the great 100m athletes COULD run a great 400 if they really tried or cared--look at Gay 44.89, Gatlin, of course Dolt.
But I don't think the reverse is true, that a great 400 athlete could run a great 100 if they really tried or cared. They can get close, like WVN, maybe Norman, and others. The fact that Kerley has verifiedly run this fast in the 100 suggests to me that he is in fact primarily a 100 guy who for some reason was running 400's, because he got wrongly shafted into that event for some reason.
And the fact that he is primarily a very fast 100m guy means that his 200 prospects are uncertain, although the potential is certainly there. IMO the historical stats don't come down on any particular side of the equation in Kerley's case. Right now he has an entirely meh 200m PB, like those other mid-9.8 guys I mentioned: 20.24. Think about that. Would you seriously bet that this guy has any shot of beating Lyles in a 200m, even if he beat him in a 100m? I wouldn't. Think about it: that outdoor PB is worse than Boling's indoor PB, from only this past indoor season. Think about this: that outdoor PB is worse than Knighton's, set less than a month ago...and he is young, hungry, and lightweight compared to Kerley. Full of 200m energy.
I think Bednarek gets it this year, even though Lyles ran him down before. I think I will go:
Bednarek - Lyles - Laird
Kerley or Knighton making the team would be an excellent surprise, especially if they took Lyles' spot. I have no love for Lyles, but you have to admit he's fast.