Purrier got a chance to medal in Tokyo?

She needs to make the team before she worries about that. If she makes the team, she'll have a >0% chance like all athletes toeing the line in Tokyo.

oldschoollrc wrote:

She needs to make the team before she worries about that. If she makes the team, she'll have a >0% chance like all athletes toeing the line in Tokyo.

Great analysis... How about this though: she has a >0% chance of making the Olympic team, and therefore she already has a >0% chance of medaling!

I agree with original poster, I would love to see her medal. Maybe still a long shot but definitely not out of the question.

Purrier is in a uniquely mixed position come trials day.

She is certainly one of the longer shots to make the team: she is new to elite running. I think the first time I started seriously paying attention to her was in 2019. I also don't think including 2020 is fair - she was on track to blow some doors off, I think, and didn't get the opportunity to. Let's compare her against the rest of the field, as well: the women's 1500 is impressively deep this year. * I can think of at least 7-8 women off the top of my head who are seriously in the running, are kickers and are people we can count on to be at the starting line. The women's 1500 has historically been one of the races where there is a more pronounced pack-thin-kick race progression, which is going to favor against people like purrier who perform better in more even-tempered environments (a race that breaks with 300 to go favors her significantly less, whereas one with 600 left is a significantly different story). I still would put purrier in the 6-8th seed because she is only recently an addition to the true top-tier of american women in the 1500m (actively IMO - Jenny Simpson, Shelby Houlihan, Karissa Schweizer, Nikki Hiltz**, Shannon Rowbury***, and Brenda Martinez***, and Purrier). Additionally, I don't think her mile ~really~ is a threat at the international level just because of the absolute LEGION of elite women who could be at the start line in tokyo.

This isn't a conversation about whether or not she can be expected to be good, though. It's about whether or not she can medal in tokyo.

I think my appreciation of Ellinor is the fact that she grew up on an actual farm. My dad's side of the family are all dairy farmers, my mom's were in beets for generations. My dad is a first generation college graduate, my mom a second. I've milked cows instead of taking a summer vacation. I have a very personal understanding of what it means to be steeped in an austere monotony that requires intentional and active self-motivation. There's something about knowing that she has reliably shaved an amount of time off of her 1500 over the last 5 years that creates an interesting narrative. I think she might get the gumption to drop another 2 seconds within the year. **** Here's where we get to the real beer/greenleaf math. Ellinor Purrier is a farmer. Not "the farmer's daughter." She is conditioned to work while laboring. I wonder if some of the early-career variance in her times might be due to still having been involved in harvest/plant/emergency farm work. She doesn't leave her blue collar at home with her when she goes to the track. I've never met her, and I don't know what her demeanor is like - that's in her brain. It's present. Commitment to task. A willingness to work because you understand the tangibility of it's product: she has done work year-over-year and has thus far reaped the rewards of not just consistency but a true-to-the-bone grit that is hard to bet against when we can tangibly put her in the 3:55-3:57 neighborhood. I am curious to see how durable she is at those paces: a personal assertion I believe to be broadly true is that there are different types of stressors on physiology when running at those paces on a regular basis. I spend/have spent enough time lurking and reading here to know that we all generally concur that in order to run fast in races, you sometimes have to run fast in training. Her trajectory says she should run those paces. I think it's legitimately a psychology and durability problem. If her body holds together, she should do fine. On psychology concerns - I don't think she's spent enough time in the international pressure cooker, or enough time on the international stage, to be equipped emotionally to run in a medal race with 600 to go with all that opportunity on the line.

I'd like to talk, now, about Stipe Miocic.+ Stipe is a heavyweight from Cleveland, Ohio, who has stared down some of the most lethal fighters on the planet - and won consistently at the highest level of competition. I think we don't talk often about stress normalization in elite athletes in the way of actual decision-making. If you're from the working class in the US (and moreso in the case of a firefighter like stipe), there is a energy-to-earn equation that is constantly happening in your head. Can I exert enough to do x/y/z/ job, and can that job provide for my a/b/c/d/etc needs. It's hard, but uncomplicated math. Let's put her with 600m to go and your-own-chosen group of women who could reasonably be in that field still packed up with 600 to go. I want you to search your heart and answer me this: does Ellinor Purrier have what it takes between the ears to rise to the occasion? Stipe Miocic did. The most-winning, longest-winning, and most dominant Heavyweight in UFC history. Stipe and Ellinor aren't the same person, but there is a similar narrative motif - in that I think a lot of people keep them out of the narrative for a myriad of different reasons. Ellinor, like Stipe, has been incredibly consistent with her work thusfar.

My conclusion: If she makes the team, she can make it to the finals at the olympics. If the race finishes in 3:55-3:57, I think she can win it. I don't think anyone thought Matt Centrowitz winning would come via a 3:50 with a 25 final 200. If that's how that race goes, with him leading the entire way and choosing how the race happens because no one wants to push a finals race, he is the guy who wins in 2016. Ellinor has the olympic and trials standard. There is a world where she's been progressing along a much different track than her races represent. If her trajectory from 2017-2018 has actually been moving along a more advanced track in terms of non-competitive fitness, it's possible that her in-competition results could pick up. IF she just rips it up at the trials - THEN she will probably medal. If we see a 3:56 at the trials, I would start to expect one. If it's anything slower than a 3:57-3:58 at the trials, I would pack bags and go home.

Thanks for coming to my ted talk.

* - As of writing this I couldn't find a website to look up who has the standard currently (I'm a casual track and field spectator, my personal running is ultra-exclusive so that's been the limit of my serious reading recently), if someone could point me to that I'd greatly appreciate it. I'm also a bit high right now, so that's probably having an effect on my ability to search. Sorry if dumb.

** - included in the Women's field because of likelihood that Nikki will run in the women's field, not intended to misgender.

*** - big maybes in their own right

**** - a note about statistics: I'm high and not trying hard. Take a deep breath. Everything is to the second, not the decimal (which makes things so broad I've decided to also not control my math for the "x"/luck factor. Tough break). she didn't have the opportunity to race outdoors in 2020 in the way that she normally would have, so I've normalized for that as well. Her progression in the 1500m per her WA profile is 4:33(2016)-4:14(2017)-4:07(2018)-4:02(2019)-4:00(2020)-3:58(2021). The difference in times is (-19) (-7) (-5) (-2) (-2).

She's as close a thing as there is to a lock to make the team, and maybe our best chance to medal at 1500 or above.

I give her 1 in 3 odds and will be leading the cheers at the Dirty Duck.

I remember Leo Manzano not being in the discussion at all and he got Silver - Anything is possible.

ecoAnPac wrote:

... Jenny Simpson , Shelby Houlihan, Karissa Schweizer, Nikki Hiltz**, Shannon Rowbury***, and Brenda Martinez***, and Purrier)..

Jenny Simpson - Maybe, but only because of her experience with rounds and tactics; she certainly hasn't shown anything lately

Shelby Houlihan - Absolutely if healthy

Karissa Schweizer - Better at 5,000, certainly not going to beat Purrier in a tactical race

Nikki Hiltz - Not in same class as the three above, sorry

Shannon Rowbury and Brenda Martinez - Nope - Would take something real and spectacular to even be in the mix.

Purrier - Consistent fast races over the last two years. As close to a lock for top three as any, especially if Houlihan is not 100%

now that I've sobered up a bit, you're not wrong. My list was very incomplete. Allow me:

Jenny Simpson - like you said, she hasn't shown anything lately. This is probably her last go of it, and with her prior success I would assume that if she thought negatively of her chances she would bow out.

Shelby Houlihan - N/C

Karissa Schweizer - was better than purrier in 2020 at this event, and has won most of their meetings over the years (most recently the indoor champs 3k). I think if they're in the same race that karissa puts herself in a position to win regardless of the time-based outcome.

Nikki Hiltz - you mean 2:01/4:02/4:32 nikki hiltz. I would assume, especially given her work done at the world champs and exposure to that level of competition, as well as solid performances at that level (Pan Ams win, doesn't mean much but the conditioning is solid), that she's in the same neighborhood. You're entitled to your opinion, regardless of the facts.

Shannon Rowbury and Brenda Martinez - exactly the reason for my footnote.

Purrier - recently consistent.

Shannon Osika - Nobody's talked about her lately, although she went to michigan. I don't know if she can handle much actual adversity besides cold winters. Similarly linear progression when compared against purrier, although somehow she feels like she's not actually in the mix. Maybe a lack of reliability at the championship level historically.

Emma Coburn - Doing the Steeple

Kate Grace - Longest shot we've mentioned

Colleen Quigley - maybe doing the steeple, non-factor in an actual 1500. Went to nerinx hall in saint louis, pampered.

Heather MacLean and Rachel Schneider - 4-8 seeds. Solid picks to be a threat if they're packed at the bell.

Surprised by your take with nikki hiltz, quite frankly. This is a sport of data.

BeevieB wrote:

ecoAnPac wrote:

... Jenny Simpson , Shelby Houlihan, Karissa Schweizer, Nikki Hiltz**, Shannon Rowbury***, and Brenda Martinez***, and Purrier)..

Jenny Simpson - Maybe, but only because of her experience with rounds and tactics; she certainly hasn't shown anything lately

Shelby Houlihan - Absolutely if healthy

Karissa Schweizer - Better at 5,000, certainly not going to beat Purrier in a tactical race

Nikki Hiltz - Not in same class as the three above, sorry

Shannon Rowbury and Brenda Martinez - Nope - Would take something real and spectacular to even be in the mix.

Purrier - Consistent fast races over the last two years. As close to a lock for top three as any, especially if Houlihan is not 100%

Exactly. All great runners at one or another and KS soon to break through hopefully. But with a healthy Shelbo, the 1500 is going to be an all time showdown of 2 gals with similar skills. Cherry on top of this godzilla vs megagodzilla showdown would be if JS has one more shot. She dropped some time on her last 16, but still would need to drop another 6 or so. Crossing the fingers that she has one left in her. Shelby, Elle, Jenny--all great kickers. Elle seems to be the only one right now without injury, inactivity or age in the background. And seems to have developed a kick. In a non doped up field, she could get a medal for sure in Tokyo. But in reality just outside shot unless tactical in Tokyo, Same thing for SH if healthy. Tactical race, they have AT LEAST as good a chance as centro did for Gold.

Hard to say. She's only competed in the 5,000 in a major championship. No data on how she would do in a tactical 1500. I actually think she would do better in a time trial-type race like the last World Championships. I don't see her beating Houlihan regardless. That's assuming Houlihan is 100%.