Absolutely no way. But I"ll be pulling for her.
Probably not. She's never made and Olympic Team, and she's a bit old (her husband of the same age is retired).
It'll come down to her closing speed - she obviously has the endurance to hold on to a fast pace. However, if the pace is slow, she's got no chance. She's a little old for a monster last lap.
rooto toot wrote:
It'll come down to her closing speed - she obviously has the endurance to hold on to a fast pace. However, if the pace is slow, she's got no chance. She's a little old for a monster last lap.
I think she has the guts to set the pace herself. It’s a matter of whether she can burn enough women off the pace before the last 400. Her 31:21 3 weeks ago was pretty encouraging. A lot depends on who enters the 10k (Cranny, Schweizer, Sisson specifically). If none of them compete, she’ll make the team. If two or more of them compete, she will not.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
rooto toot wrote:
It'll come down to her closing speed - she obviously has the endurance to hold on to a fast pace. However, if the pace is slow, she's got no chance. She's a little old for a monster last lap.
I think she has the guts to set the pace herself. It’s a matter of whether she can burn enough women off the pace before the last 400. Her 31:21 3 weeks ago was pretty encouraging. A lot depends on who enters the 10k (Cranny, Schweizer, Sisson specifically). If none of them compete, she’ll make the team. If two or more of them compete, she will not.
I thought she would before her third last month. Ran a PB but thought she would be faster
Yes. She will.
There is a history here. Ask yourself why she has not qualified in the past? She was a favorite going into the marathon trials and was never a factor. She has been a favorite to make many Olympic teams and has always underperformed at the trials.
Olympic marathon trials - horses for courses
Other big names also failed that day for the same reasons
She's never been as fit as this
I am 100% rooting for. I see her setting a hot pace from the start.
Why did you pick just this year?
She has won Millrose and been on the short list in the 1500 and not make the finals. Before the big 3 she was a favorite to make the team in the steeple. Never a factor.
[quote]never when it counts wrote:
Why did you pick just this year?
......he said "She's never been as fit as this". Maybe that's why??
John Wesley Harding wrote:
rooto toot wrote:
It'll come down to her closing speed - she obviously has the endurance to hold on to a fast pace. However, if the pace is slow, she's got no chance. She's a little old for a monster last lap.
I think she has the guts to set the pace herself. It’s a matter of whether she can burn enough women off the pace before the last 400. Her 31:21 3 weeks ago was pretty encouraging. A lot depends on who enters the 10k (Cranny, Schweizer, Sisson specifically). If none of them compete, she’ll make the team. If two or more of them compete, she will not.
My opinion is that it's too bad she's in the fast heat. Her best shot was <31:10 in the slow heat, and then the fast heat not going out hard enough. There are some pretty good women in the slow heat, D'Amato, Frazier, etc. If they all agreed to hit 75/lap and close faster in the last mile - that would put a lot of pressure on the fast heat.
MatthewXCountry wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I think she has the guts to set the pace herself. It’s a matter of whether she can burn enough women off the pace before the last 400. Her 31:21 3 weeks ago was pretty encouraging. A lot depends on who enters the 10k (Cranny, Schweizer, Sisson specifically). If none of them compete, she’ll make the team. If two or more of them compete, she will not.
My opinion is that it's too bad she's in the fast heat. Her best shot was <31:10 in the slow heat, and then the fast heat not going out hard enough. There are some pretty good women in the slow heat, D'Amato, Frazier, etc. If they all agreed to hit 75/lap and close faster in the last mile - that would put a lot of pressure on the fast heat.
This makes a lot of sense other than why wouldn't (don't) those in the 2nd heat, armed with the knowledge of how fast Heat 1 went, run just under that pace?? It seems as if in these situations, those in subsequent heats have been sequestered in sound proof rooms under the stadium, blindfolded, with absolutely zero knowledge of how fast they need to run. Weird.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if she snuck in and made the 10,000m squad. She is definitely capable of AT LEAST 30:45.00 in optimal pacing and conditions. The thing is the trials won't be optimal so it both LA down to how good of a day she is having, her tactics, and if one of the other contender scare having an off day.
She don't need a miracle to make the team but she do need a couple of things to line up in her favor during the race.
No. Shut-out for life from the Olympics. Million dollar talent derailed by ten cent thinking in trials races. Self-snakebitten.
I hope she does. She has the standard so she has a puncher's chance in a trials race. Can she close fast? No idea for 10k, but she closed the London Marathon fast
Coming into this race as one of the oldest (if not the oldest) athletes on the start-line, Sara Hall is the scrappy underdog. She isn't expected to make the team.
But don't count her out.
That video was more like a Ryan Hall interview and Sara just happens to be running in the background. What are they doing in Colorado? Are Flagstaff trails getting too crowded?
kmaclam wrote:
This makes a lot of sense other than why wouldn't (don't) those in the 2nd heat, armed with the knowledge of how fast Heat 1 went, run just under that pace?? It seems as if in these situations, those in subsequent heats have been sequestered in sound proof rooms under the stadium, blindfolded, with absolutely zero knowledge of how fast they need to run. Weird.
Because in the fast heat if you try to push the pace you have to worry about others drafting off you and outkicking you. That's exactly what happened at the 2019 USA indoor championship 2 mile. A bunch of runners could have beaten Drew Hunter's slow heat time, but nobody wanted to be the sacrificial lamb for the rest of the field.
Thin air phys wrote:
What are they doing in Colorado? Are Flagstaff trails getting too crowded?
Maybe Gunnison is not too far from where they can sleep and train at even higher elevation?