Athing Mu joins the sub-50/sub-2 club - 49.84!!

He gets everything incorrect regarding Mu.

And he would appeal to ignorance as per usual: "she hasn't run sub 23 in a real race, so there's no evidence she can do it. Therefore, she can't do it."...blah blah blah.

George213 wrote:

shill wrote:

I feel like you’re grasping at straws with the 200m PR argument. And it seems as if you’ve never seen her run. She routinely runs faster than 23.7 for her first 200 of the 400.

Indoor. She went out too slow (bad indoor tactics) and went out in 23.7 for first 200 of the 400. On the relay, she went out in 23.1.

Outdoor, she’s just ran 23.5 for her first 200 in the 49.8. She’s certainly “in the range” of sub 23 for sure.

And he would appeal to ignorance as per usual: "she hasn't run sub 23 in a real race, so there's no evidence she can do it. Therefore, she can't do it."...blah blah blah.

I said nothing of the kind. Moron. A 400 of 50secs (or 49.8x) suggests a 200 in the vicinity of 23 is likely. But if she can run 22 she would be a sprinter competitive with the world's best over that distance. I thought we were discussing a middle distance athlete here? As for the 400 world mark, that simply isn't possible for a sprinter who can't break 22. The stats prove that. That isn't Mu.

I am genuinely surprised if she is running 23-low for the first 200 of a 400. It also shows that she is slowing considerably over the second 200, by nearly 4 secs, to around 26x-27secs off a flying start. That is a very big deficit, which no top male 400 runner would show. They slow between 1-2 secs. It says to me that while she has speed her strength endurance is not that great - which has implications for the 800.

Just because the stats don't prove it, it doesn't mean it can't be done. Also the sample size is way too small to draw any truly valid conclusions. It only takes one athlete to perform outside these supposed boundaries to change everyones opinions. Consider Michael Johnson. He was never able to break 10 seconds in the 100m (lifetime best of 10.09) and yet ran 19.32 for the 200m. Although a negative split is not unheard of from the 100m to 200m that type of differential was well outside of what was the norm. Similarly for Mu and the 200/400. She may never break 22 but this in no way determines that she can't break 47.60.

She ran 23.5/26.2 with a strong tailwind for the first 200, a strong headwind the second. So adjusted, more like 23.9/25.8, which are excellent splits for any 400 runner. No grim "implications" of her strength endurance are relevant.

grabbit wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

I am genuinely surprised if she is running 23-low for the first 200 of a 400. It also shows that she is slowing considerably over the second 200, by nearly 4 secs, to around 26x-27secs off a flying start. That is a very big deficit, which no top male 400 runner would show. They slow between 1-2 secs. It says to me that while she has speed her strength endurance is not that great - which has implications for the 800.

She ran 23.5/26.2 with a strong tailwind for the first 200, a strong headwind the second. So adjusted, more like 23.9/25.8, which are excellent splits for any 400 runner. No grim "implications" of her strength endurance are relevant.

I like the way statistics can be manipulated to say the opposite of what they do.

GreatDane wrote:

Just because the stats don't prove it, it doesn't mean it can't be done. Also the sample size is way too small to draw any truly valid conclusions. It only takes one athlete to perform outside these supposed boundaries to change everyones opinions. Consider Michael Johnson. He was never able to break 10 seconds in the 100m (lifetime best of 10.09) and yet ran 19.32 for the 200m. Although a negative split is not unheard of from the 100m to 200m that type of differential was well outside of what was the norm. Similarly for Mu and the 200/400. She may never break 22 but this in no way determines that she can't break 47.60.

The 100m and 200m are not comparable to the 200/400. The second 100m in a 200m is effectively a 100 relay leg, which is why athletes like Johnson and Tommie Smith had relatively faster 200 times than their 100.

However, there is always a slowing from a runner's best 200 to their 400. It isn't possible to put two 200's back to back that are anywhere near a runner's best 200. That is why the best 400 runners are also very fast over the 200, because they can't run the 400 at a speed close to their 200 best - there is always a differential, and in women's track it is typically about 2 secs for each 200. To beat 48secs a female runner would have to be sub-22 for the 200.

Armstronglivs wrote:

grabbit wrote:

She ran 23.5/26.2 with a strong tailwind for the first 200, a strong headwind the second. So adjusted, more like 23.9/25.8, which are excellent splits for any 400 runner. No grim "implications" of her strength endurance are relevant.

I like the way statistics can be manipulated to say the opposite of what they do.

You are a moron.

I'm not comparing the 100/200m to the 200/400m. I'm giving you an example of an athlete (Michael Johnson) who performed outside the expected boundaries compared to other top athletes who were competing over the same distances. Whose to say Mu couldn't also be the exception for the 200/400 combo. E.g her running a low 22 200m and a 47.5 400m. It's always impossible until it's done.

He never grasps logical arguments.

w4t4t wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

I like the way statistics can be manipulated to say the opposite of what they do.

You are a moron.

A concession that you have no argument.

GreatDane wrote:

I'm not comparing the 100/200m to the 200/400m. I'm giving you an example of an athlete (Michael Johnson) who performed outside the expected boundaries compared to other top athletes who were competing over the same distances. Whose to say Mu couldn't also be the exception for the 200/400 combo. E.g her running a low 22 200m and a 47.5 400m. It's always impossible until it's done.

Johnson cannot be compared to Mu in any sense or over any distance. Your argument about his 200m is irrelevant to the 400m - her's or anyone's.

She has not run 22-low for the 200m - and she will not - that would make her a totally different athlete from what she is; she would be a sprinter, not a md athlete. For her to run 47.5 she would need to become a sprinter while running a far smaller differential split than any other previous record holder (like a distance athlete perhaps - so is she a sprinter or a 10k runner?) and she would need to run faster than an E Bloc doped wr while clean. If you are betting man I wouldn't like your odds. Of course if she were to dope, everything changes.

Armstronglivs wrote:

w4t4t wrote:

You are a moron.

A concession that you have no argument.

No need to find arguments to talk to you, when you refuse all the valid arguments on the thread.

Enjoy your ignorance.

Armstrongfibs wrote:

He never grasps logical arguments.

You never know. You might try one. I haven't seen any here yet.

w4t4t wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

A concession that you have no argument.

No need to find arguments to talk to you, when you refuse all the valid arguments on the thread.

Enjoy your ignorance.

Let me know when she runs 47.

We will but you will just accuse her of doping because that is what you do.

Why are you guys even arguing if she can run 47, she is an 800m runner, at best she will likely run 48.8 if she chooses to continue focusing on the 800m.There is a small chance she could be better at the 400m than the 800m, as she is running elite times while not training specifically for the event, but will likely never find out if she is.

the lets run posters, that failed to predict Mu's time at the beginning of this thread, are now lecturing the ones that got it right today.

this is called survival of the weakest. no worries, these people will die off with the first big challenge in life.

in conclusion,

Mu can most probably go 22.8-9 now given that she opens her 400m runs mid/late 23.

Mu has negative solo splits with 157, so in competition, better splits you're talking 155 sure.

Mu is still improving so 154 high is not out of the question.

however there is no data to indicate that

Mu can go sub 49

Mu can go sub 22

there is a lot of data to suggest that Mu will break 4 min 1500 however.

if she chooses.