Predicted it
Predicted it
The worlds only hope at the doped up 800m WR
What was newsworthy to me was she said she'd definitely doing the 800.
https://twitter.com/letsrundotcom/status/1393708724666183680
queen ting ting
She has to be the clear favorite to win the 800m at the trials after this performance. How is anyone going to contend with someone who can run an open 400 in sub 50? She is on her way to be the next dominant 800m star since Caster Semenya.
Mu now ranks 19th on the all-time US List in the 400 in addition to #10 in the 800
400m
1 Sanya Richards-Ross 48.70
2 Valerie Brisco 48.83
3 Chandra Cheeseborough 49.06
4 Allyson Felix 49.26
5 Jearl Miles-Clark 49.40
6 Francena McCorory 49.48
7 Shakina Wimbley 49.52
8 Monique Hennagan 49.56
9 Marion Jones 49.59
10 Wadeline Jonathas 49.60
11 Phyllis Francis 49.61
12 Gwen Torrence 49.64
12 Dee Dee Trotter 49.64
12 Debbie Dunn 49.64
15 Lillie Leatherwood 49.66
16 Courtney Okolo 49.71
17 Quanera Hayes 49.72
18 Lynna Irby 49.80
19 Diane Dixon 49.84
19 Natasha Hastings 49.84
19 Athing Mu 49.84
800m
1 Ajee’ Wilson 1:55.61
2 Jearl Miles-Clark 1:56.40
3 Mary Slaney 1:56.90
4 Kim Gallagher 1:56.91
5 Meredith Valmon 1:57.04
6 Alysia Mpntano 1:57.34
7 Charlene Lipsey 1:57.38
8 Molly Ludlow 1:57.69
8 Raevyn Rogers 1:57.69
10 Athing Mu 1:57.73
Even for a 400/800 runner (rather than 800/1500, which she is still good at), this indicates 1:53-1:54 ability. Most of the 400/800 types I knew in college were around 48-flat and 1:50. Assuming those are equivalent for that kind of runner, 49.84 is 1:54.22!
my two pennies wrote:
Even for a 400/800 runner (rather than 800/1500, which she is still good at), this indicates 1:53-1:54 ability. Most of the 400/800 types I knew in college were around 48-flat and 1:50. Assuming those are equivalent for that kind of runner, 49.84 is 1:54.22!
The 800m world record holder ran 47.6 so there is no indication yet that Athing will be ever able to break 1:54. Nobody knows.
Still think an in form Ajee Wilson is the favourite at the trials but Athing is gaining extremely quickly. Thing is Ajee hasn't been racing much I don't think and not sure how fit she is. Have to think she'll be ready for the trials.
Ajee Wilson is absolutely in shape, she opened her season in 1:58 I think. I wouldn’t put it past her to be in 1:56 shape come trials. One thing Mu has on Wilson is her speed though. I’ve never seen Ajee close in 57.9 before. The crazy thing is, even coming from a strength side, with a 4:05 PR in the 15, I’m not sure Wilson has that much ground on Mu, who could probably run in the 4:09-4:12 range with some competition. Tactics are the only thing I see separating these two right now.
lke_4:25 wrote:
The worlds only hope at the doped up 800m WR
If she dopes.
my two pennies wrote:
Even for a 400/800 runner (rather than 800/1500, which she is still good at), this indicates 1:53-1:54 ability. Most of the 400/800 types I knew in college were around 48-flat and 1:50. Assuming those are equivalent for that kind of runner, 49.84 is 1:54.22!
Male runners aren't comparable. Apples and oranges. Has to be with other females.
She is a female. Don't extrapolate from male times. Just enjoy as she crushes the female world record. Probably going down at the Olympics.
Kratochvilova ran 47.99/1:53.28. That's 48 to 56.6 or an 8.6 s slowdown from 400m to 800m.
If Athing Mu ran 50/1:57.7, that's 50 to 58.8 or an 8.8 s slowdown.
However, many 800 runners have a much smaller slowdown. Rudisha was officially 45 to 50.4, 5.4s or maybe at his best 44.4 or so to 50.4 or 6 s. Symmonds on the other end of the scale ran 47 to 51.4 or 4.4 s slower in the 800m. If Mu runs 49 and cuts the slowdown to 6s, that would be 1:50. It's not unreasonable that she'll run low 49 this year against the best and then a 1:54-55 is likely (8 second slowdown).
Plus whatever Mu currently lacks in speed versus Kratochvilova, Mu would have the edge on the strength side. I’m sure Mu could break 4:10 in the 1500 easy. I don’t think Kratochvilova ever ran the 1500? Another way of looking at this...
She reminds me of another teenager who dominated the 800m in 2008. Pamela Jelimo was a 400m hurdle before switching to 800m where she ended up running a best time of 1:54:01. Her 400m best was 52:11 though she ran that in Kenya. I thing Athing is much stronger and will run faster than 1:54. Maybe 1:53 -1:52. If she runs in a mixed race she could even run 1:50. She is just that strong.
zxcvzxcv wrote:
Kratochvilova ran 47.99/1:53.28. That's 48 to 56.6 or an 8.6 s slowdown from 400m to 800m.
If Athing Mu ran 50/1:57.7, that's 50 to 58.8 or an 8.8 s slowdown.
However, many 800 runners have a much smaller slowdown. Rudisha was officially 45 to 50.4, 5.4s or maybe at his best 44.4 or so to 50.4 or 6 s. Symmonds on the other end of the scale ran 47 to 51.4 or 4.4 s slower in the 800m. If Mu runs 49 and cuts the slowdown to 6s, that would be 1:50. It's not unreasonable that she'll run low 49 this year against the best and then a 1:54-55 is likely (8 second slowdown).
Amongst male 800m specialists the rate of slowdown tends to be less, which is why I think their performances aren't usefully comparable. Mu is certainly showing good speed over the 400 but the 800 is its own race. We won't know what she can do over that distance until she shows us. It's a long way to 1.53.
ABUDUSH wrote:
She reminds me of another teenager who dominated the 800m in 2008. Pamela Jelimo was a 400m hurdle before switching to 800m where she ended up running a best time of 1:54:01. Her 400m best was 52:11 though she ran that in Kenya. I thing Athing is much stronger and will run faster than 1:54. Maybe 1:53 -1:52. If she runs in a mixed race she could even run 1:50. She is just that strong.
Jelimo never ran faster than when she was 18. That may not be the comparison you want.
1.50? 3 seconds faster than a doped world mark? You have no idea.
Incredible for such a young athlete! She has a good 10-12 years up her sleeve to break both the 400m and 800m world records. Michael Johnson was 30ish when he finally broke the 400.
GreatDane wrote:
Incredible for such a young athlete! She has a good 10-12 years up her sleeve to break both the 400m and 800m world records. Michael Johnson was 30ish when he finally broke the 400.
No way she can break the 400m WR, but there's a remote possibility she can get the 800m's.