Hot Take: Your College 10k pb (pace per mile) should be FASTER than HS 2mi pb

Fair argument.

I wouldn’t be so sure. That’s top level talent “I ran at a shizzy high school that only did 15 mpw” type stuff there.

It’s the same thing as expecting someone that ran a 4:20 mile in hs to be a 13:30 guy by the end of college. It happens but a lot less often/realistic than you’d think.

8:25 - 26:10 = WR

8:35 - 26:40 = AR & world class

8:45 - 27:11 = top ranked USA & probably WCH/OG

8:55 - 27:42 = 1965 -1975 world class OG

9:05 - 28:13 = 1965 - 1972 world class

9:15 - 28:44 = 1954/1956 WR type

9:25 - 29:15 = Women’s WR 1949/1950 male WR type

9:35- 29:46 = excellent D3

9:45 - 30:17 = near USA women’s AR/ very good D3 / male with hopes to make USA marathon trials

9:55 - 30:48 = women’s world class & USA WCH/OG

10:05 - 31:19 = good men’s D3

^ wrote:

8:25 - 26:10 = WR

8:35 - 26:40 = AR & world class

8:45 - 27:11 = top ranked USA & probably WCH/OG

8:55 - 27:42 = 1965 -1975 world class OG

9:05 - 28:13 = 1965 - 1972 world class

9:15 - 28:44 = 1954/1956 WR type

9:25 - 29:15 = Women’s WR 1949/1950 male WR type

9:35- 29:46 = excellent D3

9:45 - 30:17 = near USA women’s AR/ very good D3 / male with hopes to make USA marathon trials

9:55 - 30:48 = women’s world class & USA WCH/OG

10:05 - 31:19 = good men’s D3

Really that should be the expectations.

CopperRunner wrote:

I wouldn’t be so sure. That’s top level talent “I ran at a shizzy high school that only did 15 mpw” type stuff there.

It’s the same thing as expecting someone that ran a 4:20 mile in hs to be a 13:30 guy by the end of college. It happens but a lot less often/realistic than you’d think.

A 4:20 guy is usually going to be a 9:15-9:25 guy. That would put him at 28:40-29:12 based on the OP’s projection.

28:40-29:12 would be like 13:50-14:10 for 5k. It’s pretty realistic.

Holding a HS 2-mile pace for 5000 is more typical. I knew a lot of 9:20-30 guys in HS and only one ever broke 30:00.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Holding a HS 2-mile pace for 5000 is more typical. I knew a lot of 9:20-30 guys in HS and only one ever broke 30:00.

This was my experience too. In a perfect world, if training is optimal and everything goes perfectly, I suppose the OP’s theory holds true. However, those are the outliers. Plus, it assumes you are not maxed out in high school. I ran about 55 mpw max during base phase in high school, but when I tried to go up to 100 in college, I could never break the injury cycle. I should’ve stayed at 75-80 w a day off. Some people just aren’t made to do massive volume,

Most who get thrown into 10Ks in college are scrubs used for conference champs points fodder. Typically partial or no scholarship and injured often or simply failing to progress for personal reasons.

Sub-9 guy wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Holding a HS 2-mile pace for 5000 is more typical. I knew a lot of 9:20-30 guys in HS and only one ever broke 30:00.

This was my experience too. In a perfect world, if training is optimal and everything goes perfectly, I suppose the OP’s theory holds true. However, those are the outliers. Plus, it assumes you are not maxed out in high school. I ran about 55 mpw max during base phase in high school, but when I tried to go up to 100 in college, I could never break the injury cycle. I should’ve stayed at 75-80 w a day off. Some people just aren’t made to do massive volume,

There's a lot of data out there for elite runners. Salazar achieved that level and Ritzenheim almost did, but Virgin and Pre never got close. Lindgren ran 8:40 in HS and 4:32 pace for his 6-mile AR. Those are all guys I believe reached their potential is in HS.

OP, so would you say your marathon PR in your early 20s is likely to be around your high school 10k pace?

I'm not saying it is or isn't realistic, I just wonder about myself. 10k was my main event in high school and I switched to another sport for my 20s and 30s. So unfortunate I didn't run during my peak athletic years, although I made the most of it with another sport. I conceivably could have gotten close to that pace for a full marathon but not as early an age as a typical college senior would be.

CopperRunner wrote:

I wouldn’t be so sure. That’s top level talent “I ran at a shizzy high school that only did 15 mpw” type stuff there.

It’s the same thing as expecting someone that ran a 4:20 mile in hs to be a 13:30 guy by the end of college. It happens but a lot less often/realistic than you’d think.

Most people have relatively weak 1600/3200m differentials in HS. They can improve 10s in the mile and 30s in the 2 mile. I wouldn't expect a 1330 but expecting that 420 miler to turn into like a 408/14:00 guy is pretty reasonable. 10k pace might be a hair fast for what I expect kiss to do but I would also expect a bit more than 5k pace. Probably like 8k.

I’m a sophomore in college and just went 31:12. My HS PRs were 4:35 and 10:05 for 16/32. Mileage went from 50-70 to 90 -120

I ran 9:35 in HS on about 60mpw. I ran 29:52 in college on about 100+mpw.

Never ran the 2 mile in HS but I figure my time would have been around 9:40. Ran a 30:15 10k this year, first year of college.

I was your typical super undertrained HSer, low mileage, only speed workouts, ran a sub 2 800m but high 16 5k etc...

I don’t think that’s either a hot take or unpopular opinion, I think that’s a great goal and seems to be the natural progression for the average college runner; so long as the runner didn’t overextend them-self in HS.

It is a good goal. For myself, I ran a 11:07 3200m my senior year on 15-20 mpw. I ran 32:27 10000m on 55-65 mpw. I think a lot of whether one can run their high school 2 mile pace in their college 10k depends on mileage progression, staying injury free, and transition to the longer distances.

High School Vs College

Mile 4:24 - 4:04

9:19 - 29:05

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Holding a HS 2-mile pace for 5000 is more typical. I knew a lot of 9:20-30 guys in HS and only one ever broke 30:00.

The progression would be more like

HS 2mi or 3200 9:30

College Frosh/Soph 5000 14:50

College Junior 8k 23:45

College Senior 10k 29:41

These times aren’t impossible. People lose interest, get busy with school, social life, injured, undiagnosed nutritional deficiencies.

If you’re training is progressing, you have quality coaching and you maintain interest you should be able to hit these times.

So if I ran a 7:57 3k in high school, I should run 26:30 in college?