Below are Gatlin's basic season opener since 2012, and then his championship performance - when applicable; when not applicable, from either his last or second to last performance of the season, whichever is better - and the difference between the two:
2012: 9.89 opener; 9.86 peak (-0.03)
2013: 10.10 opener; 9.83 peak (-0.27)
2014: 9.99 opener; 9.80 peak (-0.19)
2015: 9.78 opener; 9.79 peak (+0.01)
2016: 10.01 opener; 9.90 peak (-0.11)
2017: 10.06 opener; 9.87 peak (-0.19)
2018: 10.07 opener; 9.98 peak (-0.09)
2019: 10.08 opener; 9.92 peak (-0.16)
2020: 10.16 opener; 10.12 peak (-0.04) -----> pretty much an "ignore" year
2021: 10.07 opener; ???? peak
For championship years (2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019), that's an average drop of 0.125 over the course of the season. This is skewed somewhat by 2015, which is the only year he ran faster in the opener than in the championship/last two performances. Further, 2015 featured a particularly ridiculous opener. Remove 2015, and his average improvement over course of championship years is 0.152. If you want to take out 2013 as another anomaly, due to the 0.27 improvement, you're back at 0.122. But, in any case, you're looking at a fairly stable progression in big years for Gatlin. If this is a decent guide, Gatlin will run a basic 9.92 to 9.95 in the Olympic Final ----- IF he makes it there. That would put him in the mix for a medal. But competition will be stiff to get the ticket to Tokyo. Ronnie Baker and Jo'Vaughn Martin have openers of 10.01 and 10.02, respectively. Brommell hasn't run a 100 yet, but he ran a great indoor 60 (6.48) and some subpar outdoor 200s. If history is any guide, he'll improve substantially over course of the season too. Lyles didn't run great this weekend but we know he has the best top end speed of all of them, so we can't count him out. I honestly think Bolling is a darkhorse challenger to be a top-6 finisher still. Other names are out there.
But, long story short, Gatlin's 10.07 puts him right in line with how he began 2013 (WC Silver) 2017 (WC Gold) and 2019 (WC Silver).
Don't bring up drug **** in this thread. You probably know far less about them than I do and, more importantly, they have no impact on this narrow topic.