Hold on now.... wrote:
Why is everyone on these message boards such a novice when it comes to understanding running performance. I am a college coach, former pro and elite college runner. I've had drop down mile repeats closing within 5 seconds of my personal best in a mile. When you are really strong and warmed up, you can do some incredible stuff in workouts. Just look at some of Galen Rupps intervals sessions..
Anyways 4:06.1 in 15 mpw winds is about a 4:00 mile in no wind. I'm not sure what the humidity was, but that and the pacing play a big role too. This is his first race of the season for the mile which is absolutely incredible. It's obvious this kid can go 3:57 in the right race and right conditions in the next month or two. Which is is absolutely freaking incredible for a junior in high school.
10 seconds faster is a big deal. The weather is absolutely the only X-factor. Pacing and the other competitors are excuses for going slow; never reasons for going fast. Look at Webb's AR. Are you saying that if he can solo that time, he's under the WR with pacing and competition?
I'll believe this guy's record breaking when it happens. Who was with Kipchoge or KB in the 2 fastest marathons ever run? KB was lapping people in 10k - and running faster than anyone ever had. When his track records were broken, it was one guy and the clock. 'In the right conditions' is huge. 'In the right race' is not.
So why is everyone on these Board such a novice when it comes to racing performance? Given that the greatest performances are done essentially solo from the time it really starts getting difficult, perhaps you can answer your own question.
Again another novice response. When will you guys learn. It's basic running knowledge to figure out the time difference based on wind speed. Which he would be around 4:00-4:01 based on the conditions of this last race .This is not counting humidity which I don't know how it was for this race. So given that this was his FIRST mile of the season, after some obviously hard training weeks it's extremely plausible he will be able to run 3:57 in 1-2 months if he finds good weather and stays healthy. This is very early in his season so a 4:06 mile in windy conditions as JUNIOR is absolutely freaking incredible!
Pacing to run a fast time is never an excuse that someone should have ran faster by themselves. Almost every extremely fast mile ever run was run with a good pacer. His pacer did not do a good job in this race, which is fine because it was his FIRST mile of the season. I never said anything about the pacer needing to stay with him towards the end of the race. I'd the pacer even brought him through 600-800 at 4:00 pace with non windy conditions, you would see different results... Which I'm sure in the coming months you will, and you will look like a novice for not seeing if now.