Womens Olympic Team Predictions - 10,000m

birdbeard wrote:

Also obviously I don’t consider Junxia’s time.

Agreed, though it’s starting to look less out of line:

Ayana - 29:17

Junxia - 29:31

Cheruiyot - 29:32

Hassan - 29:36

All four doped? Pretty likely, but like you said, I try not to think about it much—for that way lies madness.

Junxia’s 8:06.11 3k though? Jesus Christ, what a joke.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

Also obviously I don’t consider Junxia’s time.

Agreed, though it’s starting to look less out of line:

Ayana - 29:17

Junxia - 29:31

Cheruiyot - 29:32

Hassan - 29:36

All four doped? Pretty likely, but like you said, I try not to think about it much—for that way lies madness.

Junxia’s 8:06.11 3k though? Jesus Christ, what a joke.

Yeah, I think the only thing that makes Junxia's more of an outlier is that it happened in 1993. Everyone else had the benefit of technology/training improvements for 25 years. When Junxia ran her time she broke the WR by like 45 seconds and the second fastest time was another Chinese athlete that also broke the prior WR (albeit barely). Perhaps even crazier is that only 4 non-Chinese women athletics had ever run under 31 at that point.

It was just comically unbelievable.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Notorious OAF wrote:set the 10K world record, in the Olympics, in fricking Rio, during the day in humid weather, winning by 46 seconds.

*15 seconds, not 46

Notorious OAF wrote:

I don’t know, who seems more likely to be doping? Ayana almost certainly is/was. I could see Cheruiyot being cleanish.

Ayana seems more likely, but that’s almost beside the point—or maybe it’s exactly my point, I’m not sure. I assumed birdbeard was calling Cheruiyot a WR holder by way of discrediting Ayana’s WR as the result of drugs. It’s a slippery slope from there to claiming Jim Ryun still holds all the mid distance WRs, is all I’m saying.

I was 2017 London she won by 46 seconds. My bad. Still ridiculous.

Notorious OAF wrote:

To me, Schweizer has more upside in the 10K than any of the US runners in recent memory, with maybe only Shalane being close. I do think the 10K field is deeper now. In particular, Koko being another elite-level Western competitor is very rare, and Hasan representing a European country makes the field deeper. That’s Koko, Hasan, 3 Kenyans, and 3 Ethiopians to beat for a medal.

And two Japanese, and another German.

Notorious OAF wrote:

To me, Schweizer has more upside in the 10K than any of the US runners in recent memory, with maybe only Shalane being close. I do think the 10K field is deeper now. In particular, Koko being another elite-level Western competitor is very rare, and Hasan representing a European country makes the field deeper. That’s Koko, Hasan, 3 Kenyans, and 3 Ethiopians to beat for a medal.

Thanks! In agreement that the field is deeper, and it isn’t due to my poor memory or not considering shoe improvements.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Notorious OAF wrote:

To me, Schweizer has more upside in the 10K than any of the US runners in recent memory, with maybe only Shalane being close. I do think the 10K field is deeper now. In particular, Koko being another elite-level Western competitor is very rare, and Hasan representing a European country makes the field deeper. That’s Koko, Hasan, 3 Kenyans, and 3 Ethiopians to beat for a medal.

And two Japanese, and another German.

And McColgan who ran 30:58 a few weeks ago. I can't see past Hassan and Gidey but bronze could be up for grabs

dullard wrote:

Not like it matters, none of them will get anywhere near the podium.

In 2016, Huddle was 6th & Infeld was 11th. In 2015, the US went 3-4-6. 2017- 6, 8, 9. 2019- 8, 9, 10.

Depends on how fast the race goes up front but any woman on the team has the potential to nab a bronze. The women's 10k is similar to the marathon. Each woman can finish in the top-10. Maybe that doesn't get you near the podium time-wise but the US women are strong at the 10k compared to most of the world.

As for the team here are some of the contenders: Huddle, Sisson, Cranny, Schweizer, Hall, Infeld, Schneider, Monson, Rogers, Fraser, Allie O, NAZ Elite women, D'Amato.

I think Sisson and Huddle front run & make it fast. Give me someone from Bowerman for the 3rd spot. Schneider has also been great recently and will be tough to beat.

It's got to be a lot of pressure to be able to perform on that specific day at your complete best. That's the edge I give to Marielle and Emily Infeld, they've done it before under the pressure. I just hope the greats can stay healthy because it will be an awesome trial if they can. The 5k will be pretty amazing too. I think my dark horse might be Kiera D'amato ... she COULD make the team with a lot of work and focus. It's her first time being professionally sponsored so that might give her a boost. Idk anything about her coach though.

Weini Kelati

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkqsIfSduos

Do you think a top 5 in the 15K Champs around 50 min. helps fill the resume of any of these: Paige Stoner, Erika Kemp, Allie Kieffer, or Maegan Krifchin?

Kiera D'Amato is going out for the 10k .. I think I want to change my picks because I just root for her like it's no one's business:

1. Elise Cranny

2. Kiera D'amato

3. Emily Infeld (if she stays healthy)

Marielle Hall is the alternate

I think today's performance in Jacksonville clearly puts Emily Sisson on the team. She is very fit right now and just ran away from the gun. Not afraid to push the pace and make people hurt.

I think four are going to be battling for three spots: Saina, Sisson, Cranny, and Schweizer. Of course, this is assuming Schweizer doesn't focus on the 5000. As much as I would love to see Huddle make one more team, I don't think she can run with these four anymore.

All-time US List (Including Saina now that she is American even though these times were run as a Kenyan)

1 30:07.78 Betsy Saina 12.08.2016

2 30:13.17 Molly Huddle 12.08.2016

3 30:22.22 Shalane Flanagan 15.08.2008

4 30:34.49 Shalane Flanagan 04.05.2008

5 30:39.57 Shalane Flanagan 01.05.2011

6 30:47.42 Elise Cranny 20.02.2021

7 30:47.59 Molly Huddle 04.05.2014

8 30:47.99 Karissa Schweizer 20.02.2021

9 30:49.57 Emily Sisson 29.03.2019

10 30:50.32 Deena Kastor 03.05.2002

11 30:55.16 Kara Goucher 15.08.2008

12 30:57.30 Betsy Saina 04.05.2014

13 30:58.46 Molly Huddle 29.03.2019

14 30:59.97 Shalane Flanagan 23.06.2011

15 31:04.85 Shalane Flanagan 29.03.2013

16 31:05.71 Marielle Hall 28.09.2019

17 31:07.24 Molly Huddle 28.09.2019

18 31:08.57 Emily Infeld 20.02.2021

19 31:09.02 Shalane Flanagan 03.04.2015

20 31:09.65 Deena Kastor 16.07.2004

21 31:09.79 Rachel Schneider 05.12.2020

22 31:10.69 Amy Cragg 03.08.2012

23 31:10.84 Alicia Monson 05.12.2020

24 31:12.28 Natosha Rogers 05.12.2020

25 31:12.56 Emily Sisson 28.09.2019

26 31:12.68 Janet Bawcom 03.08.2012

27 31:12.80 Lisa Uhl 03.08.2012

28 31:13.78 Amy Yoder-Begley 05.08.2009

29 31:15.65 Kellyn Taylor 05.12.2020

30 31:15.97 Betsy Saina 29.04.2012

31 31:16.65 Kara Goucher 23.06.2011

32 31:17.12 Kara Goucher 26.07.2006

33 31:17.20 Amy Cragg 05.05.2017

34 31:17.31 Jennifer Rhines 29.04.2007

35 31:17.86 Deena Kastor 23.08.2003

36 31:18.07 Lisa Uhl 26.03.2010

37 31:18.35 Rochelle Kanuho 09.06.2018

38 31:18.96 Amy Rudolph 01.05.2005

39 31:19.86 Molly Huddle 22.06.2017

40 31:19.87 Amy Cragg 29.04.2012

41 31:19.89 Lynn Jennings 07.08.1992

42 31:20.45 Emily Infeld 05.08.2017

43 31:21.20 Katie McGregor 06.08.2005

44 31:21.78 Marielle Hall 20.02.2021

45 31:21.92 Elva Dryer 01.05.2005

46 31:22.67 Emily Infeld 22.06.2017

47 31:22.69 Amy Begley 25.06.2009

48 31:22.86 Danielle Shanahan 05.12.2020

49 31:23.43 Shalane Flanagan 25.06.2009

50 31:24.16 Jennifer Rhines 26.07.2006