Miscellaneous wrote:
You are all missing the elephant in the room. At the Trials the 1500 and 5000 finals are 35min apart on Monday. The 10000 final is the following Saturday. Everyone with a qualifier will be doubling back in the 10000.
Houlihan
Schwiezer
Cranny
Others with a shot: Sisson, Infeld, Monson, Kelati, Schnieder, Purrier, M Hall
Why would Schweizer double back after making the 5000m team?
Why not? Why would she not want to run the 100000 at the Games? The Trials schedule mimics the Games schedule. The 1500 and 5000 competitors have 4 full days off. Everyone will be doubling back in the 10000. Bonus money!!
Miscellaneous wrote:
Why not? Why would she not want to run the 100000 at the Games? The Trials schedule mimics the Games schedule. The 1500 and 5000 competitors have 4 full days off. Everyone will be doubling back in the 10000. Bonus money!!
I'm going to disagree that everyone will be doubling back from the 1500m and 5000m in the 10000m.
Everyone with the qualifier that has a shot at making the team will double back in the 10000. Why wouldn't they?
Miscellaneous wrote:
Everyone with the qualifier that has a shot at making the team will double back in the 10000. Why wouldn't they?
Because BTC has a history of not racing more than they need to.
I posted this in the Sound thread, but even though I know Elise Cranny considers herself a 1500 runner, she doesn't have the Olympic standard, so it would seem very dumb for her to run the 1500 instead of the 5,000 at the trials, considering she'll definitely double back in the 10,000.
The 5,000 is stacked, but based upon her recent results I would think Elise has a better shot in the 5,000 than the 1,500. Assuming Purrier and Houlihan both run the 1500, I can't see Cranny beating either of them, and then there is a cadre of others -- Sinclaire Johnson, Cory McGee, Shannon Rowbury, Jenny Simpson -- that I would imagine are running the 1500 and would have to be favored over Elise. Not sure what Schweizer et al will run. In the 5000, Cranny has the 4th fastest time in the country after Houlihan, Schweizer, and Rowbury. I think she would be pretty clearly favored over everyone else that might run it, unless there is a wild card like Simpson deciding to run the 5000.
10,000, no question she is favored to make the team. I guess the only caveat being that if she is tired from the 1500/5000 she could get beat by someone that runs it fresh. But aside from Schweizer and Sisson it doesn't seem like anyone is near her fitness in the 10,000.
seasoned ranker wrote:
Miscellaneous wrote:
Everyone with the qualifier that has a shot at making the team will double back in the 10000. Why wouldn't they?
Because BTC has a history of not racing more than they need to.
But anyway, I will gladly admit that I am wrong if Houlihan and Schweizer, after making teams in other events, come back and both run the 10000m. Would make for an interesting race for sure.
seasoned ranker wrote:
Miscellaneous wrote:
You are all missing the elephant in the room. At the Trials the 1500 and 5000 finals are 35min apart on Monday. The 10000 final is the following Saturday. Everyone with a qualifier will be doubling back in the 10000.
Houlihan
Schwiezer
Cranny
Others with a shot: Sisson, Infeld, Monson, Kelati, Schnieder, Purrier, M Hall
Why would Schweizer double back after making the 5000m team?
I agree that Schweizer likely will not double back. Houlian definitely won't double back. She's likely to make both the 1500 and 5000 teams.
Cranny said she enjoyed the 10k so I suspect she's much more likely than Karissa to actually do it.
birdbeard wrote:
seasoned ranker wrote:
[quote]Miscellaneous wrote:
You are all missing the elephant in the room. At the Trials the 1500 and 5000 finals are 35min apart on Monday. The 10000 final is the following Saturday. Everyone with a qualifier will be doubling back in the 10000.
Houlihan
Schwiezer
Cranny
Others with a shot: Sisson, Infeld, Monson, Kelati, Schnieder, Purrier, M Hall
I agree that Schweizer likely will not double back. Houlian definitely won't double back. She's likely to make both the 1500 and 5000 teams.
No one will double 1500/5000 including Houlihan. The finals are 35min apart.
Miscellaneous wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
I agree that Schweizer likely will not double back. Houlian definitely won't double back. She's likely to make both the 1500 and 5000 teams.
No one will double 1500/5000 including Houlihan. The finals are 35min apart.
Houlihan would be the one that could actually pull that off if she wanted to, though.
I'm not sure what she is targeting as her primary event this year -- I would think 1500 based on the past but she may have a different view of things now.
Does anyone give Gwen a chance at the 10k or the 5k for that matter? I don't unless by some miracle this build training block before the olympics gives her some kind of super speed
CR023456 wrote:
Don't sheep on Marielle Hall. She has a knack for making teams.
Don't lamb on Natosha Rogers, who like Hall has come up clutch when it counts.
tom dickory wrote:
CR023456 wrote:
Don't sheep on Marielle Hall. She has a knack for making teams.
Don't lamb on Natosha Rogers, who like Hall has come up clutch when it counts.
Don't veal on Vannessa Fraser -- she is coming off some elective surgeries but if she rounds into form she's traditionally finished at/around Cranny (although Cranny looks to have made a big jump).
emr0129 wrote:
Does anyone give Gwen a chance at the 10k?
Sure, if the race consists of a 1K swim, a 6K bike, and a 3K run
runinthewind wrote:
I feel like there are so many amazing contendors! The trials are going to be crazy. Here is my prediction:
1) Elise Cranny
2) Emily Sisson
3) Sara Hall
Nix to Hall. She always comes up small in qualifying meets. Never made a US outdoor national track team . Cranny, Schweizer, Sisson (if Cranny and Schweizer run the 10k). Sisson will make a hard push with 3-4 laps to go. Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her and outkick her. Huddle won't be a factor. (Very hard to jump back and forth between the marathon and the track. Can't think of any athlete that does it successfully.)
I feel like Sisson has to make the team. Her 10k PR from two years is only marginally slower than the times Cranny/Schweizer recently posted, and now she has two years of very solid/strong training under her belt and would appear significantly fitter than two years ago. I guess we'll see!
Not like it matters, none of them will get anywhere near the podium.
It matters. It would be a dream to run in the Olympics whether you medaled or not.
Les wrote:
runinthewind wrote:
I feel like there are so many amazing contendors! The trials are going to be crazy. Here is my prediction:
1) Elise Cranny
2) Emily Sisson
3) Sara Hall
Nix to Hall. She always comes up small in qualifying meets. Never made a US outdoor national track team . Cranny, Schweizer, Sisson (if Cranny and Schweizer run the 10k). Sisson will make a hard push with 3-4 laps to go. Cranny and Schweizer will sit on her and outkick her. Huddle won't be a factor. (Very hard to jump back and forth between the marathon and the track. Can't think of any athlete that does it successfully.)
In 2019 Molly ran her marathon PR and then came back and won the US championships at 10000m, avenging her loss to Sisson in the Stanford 10000m.
I do think the field is deeper now, but I am not ruling her out.