Im thinking NAU gonna take the dub but like BYU was looking strong in the race that they had against them. Who are the other teams that might come from behind tho?
Im thinking NAU gonna take the dub but like BYU was looking strong in the race that they had against them. Who are the other teams that might come from behind tho?
ronanmc1 wrote:
Im thinking NAU gonna take the dub but like BYU was looking strong in the race that they had against them. Who are the other teams that might come from behind tho?
Nobody. Very clear separation of the top two and everybody else. Frankly it's NAUs race to lose, and BYU only wins again if NAU has an off day. Both at their best NAU takes it.
BYU vs NAU.
Anyone want to do the conversion math on the paces BYU ran at conference? I bet they ran 10k pace for a relaxed conference win.
A team full of current shape 13:30 guys is going to be tough to beat!
Any dark horses sliding by unnoticed? Oregon has 3 low 3:50 milers. Are they making an appearance?
So would this be considered 2020 or 2021 championship?
Washington had 5 guys break 14 in a race this year.
they all peaked, I bet UW doesn't even podium
ronanmc1 wrote:
Im thinking NAU gonna take the dub but like BYU was looking strong in the race that they had against them. Who are the other teams that might come from behind tho?
I'm also going to pick NAU for the win with BYU second. Both teams have a couple absolute STUDS up front, but from what we've seen, NAU appears to be just a bit better at the 3-4-5 spots and those are the positions that win you the meet at Natties.
Remember back in 2014 when Ches and Jenkins went 1-2 for Oregon at NCAAs and the Ducks only managed to finish in 6th? Their third and fourth runners actually didn't place all that poorly either (relative to other top teams) and U of O still finished closer in team scoring to the squads in the low-mid teens than 1st Place Colorado.
Nothing against the BYU kids, but I also think that NAU has a few more runners with greater up-side so if one guy is a bit off, it's more likely that someone covers him. I think BYU is good enough to win, but I think they have to get flawless races from their top 5 and hope that a couple key NAU guys have off-days.
That said, I think it could be a close race...I could see NAU with 3 in the Top 10, while I think BYU could put 2 in the Top 10. The battle between the second half of both teams' line-ups will be exciting to watch.
Regarding other teams coming from behind...if Oregon runs all their studs (which doesn't seem likely, but hey, you never know), they're probably on the podium, right? I know that a mile and a 10k are two different animals, but still, they seem fit enough and have enough studs to be competitive with at least teams ranked #3-10. As far as the final spot goes, Arkansas, Tulsa, OSU, and Stanford have all looked really solid, but if ever there was a year for an underdog to sneak into the Top 4, this is it. With the crazy fall / winter / Indoor NCAAs / XC NCAAs hybrid schedule & potential Covid uncertainty that could sidetrack a team at any moment, it wouldn't surprise me if a team ranked around 10th (like a ND or Washington) somehow ends up on the podium.
trash panda wrote:
ronanmc1 wrote:
Im thinking NAU gonna take the dub but like BYU was looking strong in the race that they had against them. Who are the other teams that might come from behind tho?
I'm also going to pick NAU for the win with BYU second. Both teams have a couple absolute STUDS up front, but from what we've seen, NAU appears to be just a bit better at the 3-4-5 spots and those are the positions that win you the meet at Natties.
Remember back in 2014 when Ches and Jenkins went 1-2 for Oregon at NCAAs and the Ducks only managed to finish in 6th? Their third and fourth runners actually didn't place all that poorly either (relative to other top teams) and U of O still finished closer in team scoring to the squads in the low-mid teens than 1st Place Colorado.
Nothing against the BYU kids, but I also think that NAU has a few more runners with greater up-side so if one guy is a bit off, it's more likely that someone covers him. I think BYU is good enough to win, but I think they have to get flawless races from their top 5 and hope that a couple key NAU guys have off-days.
That said, I think it could be a close race...I could see NAU with 3 in the Top 10, while I think BYU could put 2 in the Top 10. The battle between the second half of both teams' line-ups will be exciting to watch.
Regarding other teams coming from behind...if Oregon runs all their studs (which doesn't seem likely, but hey, you never know), they're probably on the podium, right? I know that a mile and a 10k are two different animals, but still, they seem fit enough and have enough studs to be competitive with at least teams ranked #3-10. As far as the final spot goes, Arkansas, Tulsa, OSU, and Stanford have all looked really solid, but if ever there was a year for an underdog to sneak into the Top 4, this is it. With the crazy fall / winter / Indoor NCAAs / XC NCAAs hybrid schedule & potential Covid uncertainty that could sidetrack a team at any moment, it wouldn't surprise me if a team ranked around 10th (like a ND or Washington) somehow ends up on the podium.
This is a great analysis. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. That being said, I think there is some question regarding Luis grijalva's health. He could very well be top 3 or even win the thing, but at the same time I think he has more variability and could be anywhere from 1-40th. Take last year for example. He finished in the 50s. So I don't think the battle will be much with the 4-5 guys because both teams are deep and can have their 6-7 step in if needed. I think the battle is won up front with Luis. If Luis is top 3, then I don't see NAU losing, but if he isn't o think this opens the opportunity for byu to win.
NAU could get 5 guys in the top 15. They would have to blow up so hard it makes last year look like a joke and BYUs 4 and 5 would have to run so freaking out of their minds for BYU to win.
What's a "Natty"?
Natty's what?
If Grijalva is injured and Bosley doesn't make it to the starting line, it is a tossup. If those two are healthy, NAU wins easily.
How about top ten?
SUU OUTTA NOWHERE!!!!
BYU in a landslide.
tuccone wrote:
NAU could get 5 guys in the top 15. They would have to blow up so hard it makes last year look like a joke and BYUs 4 and 5 would have to run so freaking out of their minds for BYU to win.
I redact this post and would like it deleted.
This should be one of the most competitive and evenly matched XC NATTY’S in recent history.
BYU
NAU
SUU
WASHINGTON
STANFORD
Plenty of others not mentioned. Low sticks and 3-4-5 runners will be the final deciders. True full team efforts. Major upsets coming!
SUU FEVER!!!!! wrote:
This should be one of the most competitive and evenly matched XC NATTY’S in recent history.
BYU
NAU
SUU
WASHINGTON
STANFORD
Plenty of others not mentioned. Low sticks and 3-4-5 runners will be the final deciders. True full team efforts. Major upsets coming!
SUU in 3rd. Seems legit.
Honestly why are they still hosting a cross country nationals ? Its like so irrelevant outdoors is starting as soon as this week and indoor is officially over besides the championship.
QuarterMiler wrote:
Honestly why are they still hosting a cross country nationals ? Its like so irrelevant outdoors is starting as soon as this week and indoor is officially over besides the championship.
Because Cross will ALWAYS be where is at if you're a distance runner. Sure as hell beats running in circles 12.5 or 25 times
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