Obesity = COVID death bros (maybe) - poor diet in same countries, associated comorbidities, etc not helping either. I've personally seen lots of super fatties die of COVID in the ICU dawgs. Number one risk factor per my anecdotal experience.
Stay fit bros. Unlikely COVID will get ya, assuming you actually run. Get those obese children outside and running around.
More motivation for me to get that 8:30/min mile tempo in brahs (I'm getting faster), check it out on my Strava.
pinesol II wrote:
According to CDC, 2019, US deaths are 2,854,838 which is 869.7 per 100K population.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htmAnd CDC says 2020 US deaths are 3,358,534, including 377,640 involving COVID.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm"Involving COVID" means that there was one of certain codes entered on the death certificate. There is no answer to the "with COVID" or "due to COVID" question here.
There actually is an answer for this, as we have mentioned many, many, many times on this board. COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause on ~91% of death certificates involving COVID.
See here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm(first panel that loads)
You can also do the calculation yourself from CDC multiple cause of death tables.
The model that produced that 95% confidence interval is opaque. The reference period may be dominated by a span of unusually low mortality.
Note that this reference gives the 2019 US death rate as 888 per 100K, different from the CDC reported 869.7 per 100K.
Where is monkeys typing with his graph that shows deaths per week as clearly a gigantic outlier in 2020 compared to previous years. I am fine nitpicking the exact excess death threshold but you need to admit that you're not going to affect the final calculation by more than ~15%.
Also, less sophisticated excess deaths algorithms using something like average of previous years adjusted for population change return similar numbers. There's not really any evidence of lying with statistics here.
I appreciate your attempt to at least use data to argue but it feels like you are bending over backwards to explain, at most, 20% of COVID deaths away. It doesn't really change the big picture so I question the motives behind the effort.
https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/2020USExcessAndCovidDeaths.pngDas Unkle wrote:
Just pointing out that the official Covid death numbers are wildly inconsistent with the official excess death numbers.
That's a fantastic representation of the question I'm trying to get an answer to! I think the crux of some posters confusion is the misunderstanding that COVID coded deaths are undercounted.
Monkeys typing wrote:
https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/2020USExcessAndCovidDeaths.pngDas Unkle wrote:
Just pointing out that the official Covid death numbers are wildly inconsistent with the official excess death numbers.
[quote]2600 bro wrote:
That's a fantastic representation of the question I'm trying to get an answer to!
I think the crux of some posters confusion is the misunderstanding that COVID coded deaths are undercounted.
Right.
24/7 fear mongering over Covid for 13 months and they are going to undercount the deaths.
Now you're really onto something.
The year-over-year increase in deaths by 17+% is significant. The year-over-year increase in deaths by 4+% without COVID is by itself significant. More typical death rate changes seems to be under 1% (so under 2.2% change in total deaths accounting for population growth) range. It's a really tight range, with no year-over-year death rate increase beyond 0.5% from 1950 (earliest year in the data set I found) to 2015. All the year-over-year increases greater than 0.5% happened in the last five years, and those are all above 1%. The shift from 2005-2015 of under 840 per 100K deaths to 2019 of 880 (or so) deaths per 100K is significant. The excess death calculation depends on modeling and many choices, like sampling interval. When the sampling interval is one year, rather than one week, the one-sided 95% confidence level is relatively (meaning by ratio) closer to the median (50%) confidence level. I am not trying to explain away any COVID deaths. I am trying to avoid the need to categorize COVID vs. not COVID, because that is a judgment call, as cause of death is always, to a degree, a judgment call. We now bewail the deaths, but we did not celebrate the preceding 15 years of lower deaths, including the decade 2005-2015 of low deaths. Mid-2018 to Mid-2019 was 2% below expected number of deaths, latter half of 2019 was 1% below expected. I do not know how CDC computed expected deaths, because those are all marked increases over the recent history. The decade 2005-2015 probably contributed to a forest fire that burns region by region. There was a build-up of medically fragile individuals, at least 400 per 100K, It looks like we paid about 200 of that in 2020, and there is at least 200 per 100K more to go, just to fill in the gap from 2005-2015. That price will be paid, and if not COVID, then something else. Probably the best thing each of us can do is avoid the obesity & prediabetic path and help build a culture where such choices are easier choices for our compatriots.
Harambe wrote:
pinesol II wrote:
...
The model that produced that 95% confidence interval is opaque. The reference period may be dominated by a span of unusually low mortality.
Note that this reference gives the 2019 US death rate as 888 per 100K, different from the CDC reported 869.7 per 100K.
Where is monkeys typing with his graph that shows deaths per week as clearly a gigantic outlier in 2020 compared to previous years. I am fine nitpicking the exact excess death threshold but you need to admit that you're not going to affect the final calculation by more than ~15%.
Also, less sophisticated excess deaths algorithms using something like average of previous years adjusted for population change return similar numbers. There's not really any evidence of lying with statistics here.
I appreciate your attempt to at least use data to argue but it feels like you are bending over backwards to explain, at most, 20% of COVID deaths away. It doesn't really change the big picture so I question the motives behind the effort.
pinesol wrote:
The year-over-year increase in deaths by 17+% is significant.
Duh!
https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/usAllCauseDeathsByYearSince1999.pngSo we are supposed to believe that Covid has killed one of every 600 Americans.
Surely several pro athletes and movie stars, and tv personalities, and others well know Americans have have been taken from us due to this dread disease.
Surely all of us know several people who have fallen.
Well, except for me.
By some miracle I don't know anyone who has even gotten sick from this monster.
predictor of this wrote:
No. I doubt that you are walking amongst us. I have a feeling that Covid has frightened you.
I am walking around quite safely in my own country because we have taken the pandemic seriously.
Strava Bro wrote:
Obesity = COVID death bros (maybe) - poor diet in same countries, associated comorbidities, etc not helping either. I've personally seen lots of super fatties die of COVID in the ICU dawgs. Number one risk factor per my anecdotal experience.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-obesity/obesity-a-driving-factor-in-covid-19-deaths-global-report-finds-idUSKBN2AW1X0Stay fit bros. Unlikely COVID will get ya, assuming you actually run. Get those obese children outside and running around.
More motivation for me to get that 8:30/min mile tempo in brahs (I'm getting faster), check it out on my Strava.
So long as you're ok it doesn't matter that the vulnerable aren't. Got it.
The Unkle wrote:
So we are supposed to believe that Covid has killed one of every 600 Americans.
Surely several pro athletes and movie stars, and tv personalities, and others well know Americans have have been taken from us due to this dread disease.
Surely all of us know several people who have fallen.
Well, except for me.
By some miracle I don't know anyone who has even gotten sick from this monster.
So nothing you haven't personally experienced actually exists - a highly solipsistic view of the world. Typical of children. And narcissists.
There are about 10,000 pro athletes in the US. Nobody has told me the 15 who died or even 1 or 2 who died. I have one family member who got pretty sick but he has diabetes and is 75 pounds overweight. I know not one person who has died and I work in an organization of 6000 people.
The Unkle wrote:
So we are supposed to believe that Covid has killed one of every 600 Americans.
Surely several pro athletes and movie stars, and tv personalities, and others well know Americans have have been taken from us due to this dread disease.
Surely all of us know several people who have fallen.
Well, except for me.
By some miracle I don't know anyone who has even gotten sick from this monster.
I believe you.
And the silver lining in all of this is that even though 521,000 have died due to Covid-19, none of them have apparently had to experience knowing you.
And you take the cake as the biggest uncaring jerk that no one should have to endure.
Why don't you, for a second, try to consider what it must be like to those that have been afflicted with this, will be inflicted with it through disregard and denial like yours, and have suffered the loss of a love one who has been taken from us?
On the other hand, why don't you just go away?
Who said that bro? I’m an ICU doc brah, have been intubating COVId patients since March 2020 . Just intubated someone w COVid 1 hr ago (no bag mask first attempt) feel me brah? Got to take care of the sick/weak but can’t have our life revolve around them.
Catch my post-call run on Strava in the AM bro, if I’m feeling it I might even dip under 8 min/mile. Pancake brunch after run w some hot chick in our run group amiright? Don’t worry we wear masks for brunch and post-run ‘festivities’
Btw COVId is real brahs
Armstronglivs wrote:
Typical of children. And narcissists.
You ^^
lover of tin wrote:
There are about 10,000 pro athletes in the US. Nobody has told me the 15 who died or even 1 or 2 who died. I have one family member who got pretty sick but he has diabetes and is 75 pounds overweight. I know not one person who has died and I work in an organization of 6000 people.
Watch out. You are not buying the narrative.
You will be called an insensitive jerk by the acolytes.
yes yes yes yes wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
So we are supposed to believe that Covid has killed one of every 600 Americans.
Surely several pro athletes and movie stars, and tv personalities, and others well know Americans have have been taken from us due to this dread disease.
Surely all of us know several people who have fallen.
Well, except for me.
By some miracle I don't know anyone who has even gotten sick from this monster.
I believe you.
And the silver lining in all of this is that even though 521,000 have died due to Covid-19, none of them have apparently had to experience knowing you.
And you take the cake as the biggest uncaring jerk that no one should have to endure.
Why don't you, for a second, try to consider what it must be like to those that have been afflicted with this, will be inflicted with it through disregard and denial like yours, and have suffered the loss of a love one who has been taken from us?
On the other hand, why don't you just go away?
Or, as common sense and personal experience dictate, the "pandemic" is largely a fake campaign of fear with the agenda being more power and wealth for the oligarchs and less for us.
Fourth wave coming, new deadlier variants, WHO telling us no way the pandemic ends this year.
Let's keep it going.
Get those vaccines, keep masking and social distancing, keep businesses from fully opening and maybe we can beat this thing in 2022. Or 2023 or 2024.
yes yes yes yes wrote:
On the other hand, why don't you just go away?
Trolls are more likely to go away if you stop responding to them.
Troll is a term applied to people making observations that make the believers uncomfortable.
Smear the messenger and ignore the message.
