Can a girl with these PRs qualify to Footlocker or NXN ever?

Absolutely. 9:40 was 11th in 2019 and 10:20 was 33rd in the 3200.

easily

This was my dad's argument for no:

I went to athletic.net and found three 9/10 graders from 2019 that were 9:40 3k +- 1 sec.

Ashlyn Keeney, IA 9th grade with 9:39.64

Gwyneth Young, PA 10th grade with 9:39.85

Ella Kurto, NY 9th grade with 9:40.77

The only one of them that qualified to NXN that year was Ella Kurto and I think it was only with a team (she was 6th at NXR)

I'll put their 1500, 800, and 400 PRs if I find them here too.

AK, IA: 4:34 1500, 2:09.99 800

GY, PA: 4:53 1600 (4:32 1500 conversion), 2:18 800

EK, NY: 4:35 1500 (nothing shorter)

Not trying to discredit these girls at all. Awesome PRs. Just what my dad's argument was.

Yes, it is definitely possible. Not sure how anyone could think otherwise with those prs .

go bulldogs wrote:

This was my dad's argument for no:

I went to athletic.net and found three 9/10 graders from 2019 that were 9:40 3k +- 1 sec.

Ashlyn Keeney, IA 9th grade with 9:39.64

Gwyneth Young, PA 10th grade with 9:39.85

Ella Kurto, NY 9th grade with 9:40.77

The only one of them that qualified to NXN that year was Ella Kurto and I think it was only with a team (she was 6th at NXR)

I'll put their 1500, 800, and 400 PRs if I find them here too.

AK, IA: 4:34 1500, 2:09.99 800

GY, PA: 4:53 1600 (4:32 1500 conversion), 2:18 800

EK, NY: 4:35 1500 (nothing shorter)

Not trying to discredit these girls at all. Awesome PRs. Just what my dad's argument was.

To add to this I want to say that my dad did not say that it was impossible, just unlikely and they should not expect to

go bulldogs wrote:

go bulldogs wrote:

.

To add to this I want to say that my dad did not say that it was impossible, just unlikely and they should not expect to

Those PRs are fast. She obviously has a good shot and can be a goal. I would also say only the top few runners in the country should "expect" to go but runners like her should be a goal.

go bulldogs wrote:

Hypothetical high school girl runs a 9:40 3k, 4:30 1500, 2:10 800 and a sub 60 400 (maybe 57or58) on a track while she is a freshman or sophomore. Can she expect to qualify to XC Footlocker or NXN is she is maybe a bit weaker in XC but still somewhat consistent with her time.

Cannot iterate enough that this is a hypothetical situation, asking for a younger sibling (still in middle school) that was wondering. We are a big XC/track family since our parents were good high school and somewhat good college runners (both D1, not winning big meets but alright within their teams. Please do not ask who they are due to privacy reasons). Btw our dad thinks that it is unlikely but my mom thinks that she might even contend for top 5 at nationals so our family is pretty split

I question the legitimacy of this for starters.

I've coached 2 different girls to 3 NXN/FL appearances out of CA. Neither had PRs that matched any of those times. Your dad has his head really far up his arse.

fast girls. My dad should meet them.

So you are coming out of the Northeast Regional for Nike which has a substantial uphill during the first part of the race and opposite of course for the second half. It's difficult to compare track times to a course like this for them and also you. How do you do on up/downhill courses?

Footlocker means Van Cortland. Also hilly in a similar way.

Sounds like you are doing your homework. Keeney blew up at state and did not recover. she probably would have qualified for NXN had NXR been 6 weeks earlier. But you are correct that there are no guarantees and that some people are much better at XC and some are better at track. I have seen state champs in 1600 and 3200 only finish 15th in XC and vice versa.

Coach who's been there several times wrote:

I question the legitimacy of this for starters.

Your dad has his head really far up his arse.

Please read my other two posts that explain his rational. He is pretty experienced and knows what good and bad times are but think that they don't always translate into XC well and from stats from athletic.net that seems to be true.

Scholar Expert wrote:

Sounds like you are doing your homework. Keeney blew up at state and did not recover. she probably would have qualified for NXN had NXR been 6 weeks earlier. But you are correct that there are no guarantees and that some people are much better at XC and some are better at track. I have seen state champs in 1600 and 3200 only finish 15th in XC and vice versa.

That is very interesting. I had never heard of Keeney or Young but I have heard of Kurto from her NXN team title last year. My dad is much better educated on high school xctf since he keeps up with it all the time. My mom is also very invested but much farther in college. Keeney and Young are both clearly very talented to have run those times however. Thanks.

go bulldogs wrote:

Coach who's been there several times wrote:

I question the legitimacy of this for starters.

Your dad has his head really far up his arse.

Please read my other two posts that explain his rational. He is pretty experienced and knows what good and bad times are but think that they don't always translate into XC well and from stats from athletic.net that seems to be true.

Of course they don't always translate because most coaches don't know wtf they are doing. If you have a girl who runs those times and you can't get her to FL or NXN you messed up as a coach unless she developed some personal/mental/physical issues after the track season ended and before or during the XC season. Assuming she stayed healthy and motivated though, that's on the coach, 100%.

Had a high school teammate run almost exactly those times as a freshman. She qualified for FL/NXN individually all 4 years, including two top 10 finishes. She is now one of the top ladies in the NCAA. However, our high school coach was quite conservative with her, focusing on getting her to college healthy and happy with plenty of room to improve as she got older.

Lauren Gregory.

Scholar Expert wrote:

Lauren Gregory.

Haha what’s funny is I actually know Lauren but she isn’t the girl I am talking about.

my two pennies wrote:

Scholar Expert wrote:

Lauren Gregory.

Haha what’s funny is I actually know Lauren but she isn’t the girl I am talking about.

However she is another case of a 4:30/9:40 freshman going on to do great things.

Absolutely possible. With those PRs, your “sister” has as good a chance as anyone.

That being said, nothing is certain.

BITD, I coached a girl that, on the track placed 6th at USATFJ for 3k, then as a senior barely got into the top 50 at FL west. Then Senior year of track ran #8 time in US for 3200 and placed 3rd at USATFJ 5k, beating that year’s FL champion.

So, nothing is to be taken for granted.

In our situation, I just wasn’t an experienced CC coach yet AND my girl just wasn’t as good at CC (which continued into college)

Since we touched on Keeney, let's look at the top 5 finishers at her NXR.

5 - Fenske 4:54, 10:26

4 - Weaver 5:04, 10:40

3 - Hostetler 4:38 1500, 9:55 3000

2 - Sperka 4:54, 10:51

1 - Ford 4:54, 10:38

The average of these would be about 4:35 1500 and 10:00 3000. Looks like the answer is right between your parents. 4:30 and 9:40 is very likely to qualify but top 5 girls typically run 4:25 and 9:25.