Is the main purpose of selecting the US Olympic marathon team to grow the sport or select the top 3 runners that have the best chance to actually medal at the games?
People seem to like the drama and sub elite incentive of the current time qualifying/attend the race format, but is that the best way to get people to try to run fast enough to medal?
Yes it is an incentive to try to be in the top 1000, 500, or to achieve a time that would qualify to run in a trials race, and that is an amazing accomplishment for anyone. But the 219 male and 245 female, or the 500th fastest marathoner are not going to be competitive at the games,
I like how Japan has done it, with major $ awarded to those who run fast, and multiple races in which you can qualify. They have succeeded in that many of their top marathoners are running faster than ever. It remains to be seen if this translates to medals at the games, but I believe their runners will do well. They have a great amount of depth among their top marathoners now.
So the US can have a special Oly marathon qualifying race where only the top 1000 fastest of each gender are allowed to start. But only the winners of that race automatically qualify for the team. Second and third place finishers provisionally qualify, if their times hold up.
There should be two other US marathons selected at which the top two US finishers can qualify. The two fastest times of the top US finishers in these two other marathons, or the US trials qualifying race, should be the next two runners on the team.
The three races would be spaced over a year+ to allow runners to do two if they want, and still recover in time to run well at the games. They should match the expected course type and weather of the Olympic mara course as much as possible.
There should be a tiered system of cash incentives for US runners that break 208, 207, 206, (222, 221, 220 for women) etc. on legit courses. Bigger prizes for setting a new US record. This could go down to 211/229 , but those times are not really that competitive on the world stage now.
The top 50 fastest male and female marathoners in the US each year should receive some funding, to encourage depth , running fast, and help some of the sub elites.
This would provides a good mix of drama and incentive to run faster.