How much stock do you put in the Tullyrunners speed ratings? For the races I see or am familiar with, sometimes they seem spot on and sometimes they seem off by quite a bit. As he thoroughly disclaims quite well, smaller races with fewer high level runners are very hard to accurately speed rate. I’m also not really sure what to make of the gradual rise in speed ratings over a season. In my limited experience with kids running the same course over a season, for the most part HS runners don’t actually seem to get faster and the best times are often early to mid-season.
Obviously they are fun and interesting and generally useful as long as you don’t think 168.3 is a relevant difference from 167.4.
I’ve taken to considering all of them as plus or minus 3-4 points. It’d be interesting to know what he considers his margin of error.