HM negative split too big! What am I capable of? :)

Training Advice/Discussion General

3 years ago 11/16/2020 11:49am EST

Hi! I ran a half marathon recently, but had a pretty sizeable negative split (probably a bit too extreme). I ran it in ~1:31:10, but these are my mile splits:

1: 7:19

2: 7:19

3: 7:16

4: 7:22

5: 7:10

6: 7:14

7: 7:04

8: 6:55

9: 6:45

10: 6:34

11: 6:28

12: 6:32

13: 6:34

So with that in mind, what do you think I could run in a properly paced half marathon? And I'm curious what you think my potential for a marathon would be right now! My best marathon was 3:29:XX two years ago, but obviously I'm in much better shape now :)

3 years ago 11/16/2020 11:58am EST

re: negativesplitter

I'm probably more cynical in saying that you should rely on that 1:31:10 for training purposes and not try to speculate what kind of shape you could be in with even pacing. You ran probably around marathon pace at the beginning and around 10k pace at the end. I'd say put in another block, keep racing 5ks and 10ks in the buildup to gauge fitness and adjust paces, and have another go at 13.1/26.2. For the marathon you can reasonably expect around 3:10 based on that time on a flat course after proper training.

3 years ago 11/16/2020 2:24pm EST

re: negativesplitter

Next time start off at 6:50. You're in shape for sub-1:30.

3 years ago 11/16/2020 5:21pm EST

re: negativesplitter

Next time:

first 5 miles @ 6:50-6:55

next 4 miles @ 6:45-6:50

last 4.1 @ 6:40 or faster

Under 1:29

3 years ago 11/17/2020 3:33am EST

re: WapLover

Thanks for the advice everyone! :)

I'm also curious, any thoughts what I could run for a 5k/10k? Or is that too hard to project?

And I have a longterm goal of running a marathon in under 3 hours. Would this be realistic for the next year or so?

3 years ago 11/17/2020 8:19am EST

re: negativesplitter

i'd predict 1:26:30 for the half. and your probably in shape to break 39 minutes in 10k.

3 years ago 11/18/2020 5:44am EST

re: WapLover

WapLover wrote:
Next time:
first 5 miles @ 6:50-6:55
next 4 miles @ 6:45-6:50
last 4.1 @ 6:40 or faster
Under 1:29

Yep, this feels right but it's gonna be a lot harder of an effort. 6:45-6:50 the whole way for a 1:28ish. Daniels gives a 1:28-flat a 19:11 5k & 39:47 10k. I would say sub-19 & sub-40 (down to 39:00) would be good training goals to work towards.

3 years ago 11/18/2020 8:43am EST

re: negativesplitter

You're probably in the range of 1:30 half now, so I think it is reasonable to at least consider a sub 3 marathon. Obviously you need a couple more training blocks with the right focus. The younger you are the more likely you are to make this goal, although even if you're 45 years old I think it is reasonable.

I would think you are sub 20 for 5k right now, maybe 41 for 10k. In a one month period when I was 38, I ran 18:50 the first week of September, 39:20 for 10k in mid September, and 1:27 half at beginning of October. In all cases I felt I ran about exactly what my ability was at the time. It was the first time I went sub 19/40/1:30. You are probably one reasonable training block from that.

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