Hello LRC,
I've run a 5,000 m TT on the track 4 days ago. I finished in 17:51, breaking 18 for first time and setting a PB. Two days before it I attempted a 5K TT on a flat beachfront road, but I couldn't get myself to sustain sub 18 pace after 2 km, and I finished in about 18:15, which was also a PB (previous PB 18:27 on same beachfront route back in February). I rested a day, and felt a nagging desire to snatch the sub 18 with my current fitness.
These were solo efforts. Below are my lap paces for the 5,000 m which was run at 27.2 deg C / 80.96 deg F and 58% relative humidity. My Max HR is 202. I was wearing a Garmin HRM chest strap. Singlet, 2-in1 shorts and Nike Zoom Streak LT 4 racing flats.
For my road 5K attempt where I planned on running a massive negative split with following kms:
1. 3:40
2. 3:34
3. 3:32
4. 3:30
5. 3:27
For which I ended up running:
1. 3:38
2. 3:32
3. 3:41
4. 3:45
5. 3:44*
(* this was until 4.99 km, I stopped, not realizing I had few meters more and my watch still running, so in reality its closer 3:34)
My pace plan for the 5,000 m was to hold even pace for 17:55 time (43" per 200 m, 86" per 400 m).
Lap Split Cumulative Avg HR
1 00:39.9 00:39.9 164
2 01:24.9 02:04.8 179
3 01:27.5 03:32.3 179
4 01:26.2 04:58.5 181
5 01:26.8 06:25.3 183
6 01:27.5 07:52.8 185
7 01:25.9 09:18.7 187
8 01:26.5 10:45 187
9 01:26.9 12:12 188
10 01:26.9 13:39 189
11 01:26.3 15:05 190
12 01:26.9 16:32 190
13 01:19.0 17:51 193
My question is: What is reasonable time to target after 2 months, when temperatures here (Middle East) allows for faster running. I'm 29 years old, male, 183 cm/6' tall, 70 kg/154 lbs, been running for about 7 years, but only started pushing the envelope about a year ago. My avg weekly mileage for the past 4 weeks has been ~ 60.3 km/37.5 mi. Other PB's include a 38:38 10K on hilly race (March 2020), 1:27:45 HM on a looped 5.4 km course TT (January 2020) , and 3:56:16 FM which was run in 2018 with no serious training.
I was following a JD inspired schedule over the summer (5-10K plan up to 64 km/40mi a week), and currently a modified version of his half marathon plan. I run fairly easy most of the time, going by perceived effort rather than pace (Yesterday's easy 5K run was 5:24 min/km or 8:40 min/mi, but would occasionally run as slow as 6:00-6:10 min/km or 9:39-10:00 min/mi on recovery days). I do a weekly LR which is usually around 20 km/12.4 mi, sometimes more and sometimes less, depending on weekly mileage (longest 30 km/18 mi, shortest 15 km/9.3 mi).
Coming back to the TT, I felt strong throughout the run, not much strain, despite the fatigue from the previous attempt and the harder impact of the racing flats. I think I could've started kicking earlier (I did with 100 m to go), but I was avoiding any possible blow-up. I just wanted to run sub 18 for now.
I hope I shared all relevant information.
Keep running.