Lead Foil Hat II wrote:
Lead Foil Hat. Let's hope. but we don't know that is has peaked. Not a single indication. Probably not. It might rise for several weeks.
Week 45 (2. nov - 8. nov): 153 deaths, that number we might conclude.
Week 46 (9.nov - 15.nov): 187 - 10 more added to day, 6 of them to 13. nov i.e. 12 days back.
Week 47 (16.nov- 22.nov): 157 - 21 more to day, 2 of them to 16. nov and many more this and next week.
The numbers reported yesterday and to day, 55, give us no indication. The only thing we know for sure is that has been a steady rise. And that the Swedish Reporting System gives us few clues of the future. But the numbers of infections gives some clues, bot nothing more. But it would be very astonhising if some of the daily numbers in Week 47 don't climb to over 40. So the 34 on 9.nov and 10. nov is definitely not the peak.
I am going to disagree. Everything indicates the worst is over. That said, your Norwegian pride is showing now, and you did know of Skaala and speak of Bergen, so I do believe it is possible you are Norwegian. Although, I stand firm on my belief that you are a Redskins fan which is a tragedy at best.
Yes, sure you disagree. "Everything indicates that the worst is over". Remember two weeks from now exactly what you wrote. And then? Between me and you and a Lamp Post, it is sad to say the worst is still to come. Both you and Budda are living in a world of hope, and that is not all bad. But then the times come to face reality. Though, at least you have some sense of humor. And from now on I will be a Redskin fan, whatever the cost may be. I will even find out who they are and stay with them shoulder to shoulder for the rest of my life.
Are you dragging me into this now?
I've obviously noticed you like to misread what I say, and we obviously disagree significantly when evaluating both Sweden and Norway's strategy, but at the very least I thought we shared common ground on reading the numbers in Sweden?
When have I underestimated the numbers in Sweden?
I have time and time again said that Lead Foil is too optimistic in his interpretation of the numbers, (though getting better as he is starting to understand the backlog system).
Credit when credit is due no?
I've pointed out more than once that you can't trust number of infected in Sweden, so we could very well be in a situation where infection is rising but they can't pick that up because testing is limited.
I've even stressed that hospitalizations continue to rise (albeit that trend is flattening significantly which is encouraging), but rise in hospitalizations would indicate that the we should expect rising death numbers still for at least another week.
Is it optimistic of me to predict that Sweden will max out at less than half of Czechia and Belgium peak numbersi daily deaths per capita? Maybe. It's just a prediction. Sweden numbers can double from today's estimated levels (this is obviously speculation given the swedish back log system) of lets say 40-50 per day and that prediction will still hold true.
I wouldn't say that's an optimistic estimate.
If you are into nitpicking I'll give you this: I've estimated, with a high degree of uncertainty as mentioned time and time again given infection rates, hospitalizations, the swedish reporting system etc that the death numbers will most likely peak next week. On second thought THAT might be a tad optimistic actually as I hadn't quite factored in that people that die from Corona tend to be hospitalized for a week before they die, so more likely it's the week after, or even two for all I know, but given all the rest I've said, it's seriously pushing things to say I am optimistic.
I'll happily admit to being optimistic on Sweden's behalf compared to what we've seen this fall in Czechia and Belgium of course. Let me just reiterate that as long as Sweden's hospitalizations contiune to rise I expect deaths to rise and since all the indicators continue to rise still, there is an obvious risk that Sweden will continue to rise for a long time and that such a prediction might be wrong.
Lol. People rarely call me optimistic Kåre..
(NB! What you failed to mention regarding the scenario FHM presented yesterday is that the model hasn't taken into consideration any effect of the max 8 persons rule)
More or less, Budda. I give you the last words, since you, by deduction, the best you have done so far, call me by my right name. And you are quite right. You are an optimist: 40-50 deaths. When I say 70-80 I am optimist too. And that is just sad. BTW, since we are getting personal, my half Swedish half Italian wife, do not think I am anti-Swedish. Though, you are quite right, my interpretation of parts of Swedish culture was a bit, but just a little bit, over the hill. But I was an optimist this summer and booked 14 days in Österlen. It's nice there partly because there are so few Norwegians on holiday there. This must be tiresome for other people on this thread. All the best.