Why has Galen not run at least a 2:05???

Honestly, he could have gone 203 the way he runs efficiently and with his 10k speed. Maybe he is past his prime speed wise so he may not lay down a super fast time but his endurance and focus is still stellar. That's why he will always at least be in medal contention and you know he wants the one he does not have, the gold. Kipchoge's loss gives the field the confidence they need to go for gold now.

not a Karen maybe a Ken wrote:

Honestly, he could have gone 203 the way he runs efficiently and with his 10k speed. Maybe he is past his prime speed wise so he may not lay down a super fast time but his endurance and focus is still stellar. That's why he will always at least be in medal contention and you know he wants the one he does not have, the gold. Kipchoge's loss gives the field the confidence they need to go for gold now.

I don’t think he is past his prime — age wise.

He’s younger than Kipchoge & Bekele. And Kipsang was also old.

And if you believe those are reported ages for the African athletes are lies, he’s even younger.

This is a great comment. That list is pretty astonishing

Not that anyone believes Cheptegei will remain on that list for much longer :)

800 dude wrote:

Jammier wrote:

OK Hardloper let us try to be intelligent. Abdi is 43. That likely means he is several minutes slower than his best.

Seriously, this is bizarre logic. There is no question that with his Atlanta fitness he could have run 2:08 on a fast course. None. So it's pointless to talk about how unlikely it is in the abstract for someone at the age of 43 to be capable of running a PR. This isn't an ex ante discussion of probability. We're looking at facts.

You need to be more intelligent. The discussion is happening because people are discussing Galen’s Olympic Trials performance as if it is a harbinger of great things, including an Olympic medal or 2:04 capability. It is not. Galen defeated a 43 year old runner who is way past his prime. Either Atlanta is not as slow as you think it is or those magic shoes are worth several minutes in the marathon which would tell us that Galen truly has deteriorated substantially.

It is NOT astonishing to the intelligent. Galen is the 9th fastest 5000m runner in U.S. history. That is more indicative of where Galen fits in historically. 10000m track races have become rather scarce so of course many of those runners have not run faster at that distance, and Komen, for instance, never ran one in his peak fitness. I would argue that all of the runners on that list were/are superior to Galen.

Jammier wrote:

800 dude wrote:

Seriously, this is bizarre logic. There is no question that with his Atlanta fitness he could have run 2:08 on a fast course. None. So it's pointless to talk about how unlikely it is in the abstract for someone at the age of 43 to be capable of running a PR. This isn't an ex ante discussion of probability. We're looking at facts.

You need to be more intelligent. The discussion is happening because people are discussing Galen’s Olympic Trials performance as if it is a harbinger of great things, including an Olympic medal or 2:04 capability. It is not. Galen defeated a 43 year old runner who is way past his prime. Either Atlanta is not as slow as you think it is or those magic shoes are worth several minutes in the marathon which would tell us that Galen truly has deteriorated substantially.

No, this started when someone suggested Galen's 2:09 low was worth 2:07 on a faster course (perfectly reasonable).

Hardloper you are not stating the case accurately. This guy said SUB 2:07 which I would read as 2:06 plus he says he is not taking into account “how much Galen had in the tank...” so that takes it to who knows what?

Walmart Superstore wrote:

Jammier wrote:

Galen hasn’t been capable of breaking 27 in several years. Galen is likely a 27:30 runner at best now and he will never break 2:07 again. Be realistic folks.

Didn't he just run 2:09 in Atlanta looking like it was nothing for him? Most people would say that 2:09 is good for sub 2:07 on a course like Berlin not even taking into account how much more he possibly had in the tank.

This guy...

Rupp is 8 seconds away from being a 2:05:xx runner. It's like a tenth of 1 percent away.

Ryan Hall, if you count his supercharged Boston time, is 3 seconds away from being a 2:05:xx runner. (i consider him to be a 2:06:17 guy)

Also, John Kellogg, who has god-like status on this site, calculated that the olympic trials course in Atlanta was about 1:25 slow. So, Rupp easily solo'd a 2:07:5x marathon after a slow race start and being off from achilles surgery for 18 months or so. That's a faster time than almost every american marathoner runner all-time.

I know he hasn't run it yet so it doesn't count, but Rupp has had the physical ability to be a 2:05 marathoner as well as break the American 1/2 marathon record in his career. Just like Bekele could have run a crazy fast half marathon if he made it a priority.

It's economics. Being an American, and really the only American top marathoner, he gets a lot more appearance money in U.S. marathons than he would abroad where race promoters give appearance money pretty much based on PRs. Rupp's doesn't measure up to the top Africans. He can make a lot more money running Chicago/Boston than he would running abroad. Big fish in a small pond pays in Rupp's case.

Jammier... go the f*ck away. It is clear you know very little about running outside of statistics and handpicked results. what are YOUR prs? If u ain't a sub 4:10 or 14:30 guy, you have no real running experience whatsoever and anything you say is pure speculation. Post your PRs with a link to the results, or stfu.

Les wrote:

It's economics. Being an American, and really the only American top marathoner, he gets a lot more appearance money in U.S. marathons than he would abroad where race promoters give appearance money pretty much based on PRs. Rupp's doesn't measure up to the top Africans. He can make a lot more money running Chicago/Boston than he would running abroad. Big fish in a small pond pays in Rupp's case.

This is probably accurate. But, as to the people arguing that he gets better with distance, his 3:50 mile and 7:30 3000 might beg to differ. His 5,000 PR is an outlier, a race he was very much training through, even as he beat a few guys who went on to run 12:45-12:49 in Paris shortly thereafter. Also, despite the fact that he’s already posted solid marathon times, he’s big for a marathoner. Most of the 2:03-2:04 guys are like 5’4” and 100 pounds or less. It makes a difference over 26.2 miles.

I do believe he can run. 2:04:30’s at least, but he needs good weather and pacing. PR’s in the marathon must be run very evenly. I think he can still run a time like this in Berlin or London. Windy Boston with tail wind probably like 2:02.

By far Galen is the best American Born Marathoner.

4:01milerrr wrote:

Jammier... go the f*ck away. It is clear you know very little about running outside of statistics and handpicked results. what are YOUR prs? If u ain't a sub 4:10 or 14:30 guy, you have no real running experience whatsoever and anything you say is pure speculation. Post your PRs with a link to the results, or stfu.

Calm down boy. Of course I have run faster than that, but how is that relevant? Intelligence matters me boy.

Let it Rupp wrote:

So in short, Galen hasn't run on a fast course with top competition on a day with good conditions. Which makes sense, since he only seems to run second-tier races outside of the olympics.

Why is this, though?

It always seems like a PR move. I'm not saying that Salazar put him in weak races to massage his ego. I'm also not saying Galen was specifically dodging competition. I'm saying that it's good marketing to put Galen in weaker races and win them all, while avoiding the deeper, fast races (looking at you, Berlin).

I will say that throughout his career, it seems like he struggles to push mentally when he's against competition he knows is better than him (dropping out, falling off the lead pack early, etc.)

Of course there are. But at most 7 of them are allowed to compete because so many of them are from just two countries.

2012 Emmanual Mutai. Kipsang was not world #1 and raced well below his level to lose to an unknown Ugandan who went right back to being unknown.

2008 Haile Geb did not show up.

u still mad? how about

2004 Felix Limo world #1 not there. Tergat showed up but trained through in 2:14.

In 2016 Kipchoge and Lelisa took it seriously, but two Kenyans including Biwott, and an Ethiopian were DNF.

2000 no Khannouchi. 2 Kenyans DNF. Top (and only) American ran 2:30

The thing to keep in mind though is Rupp's 10k performance was a record attempt. I don't think any of the athletes on this list 10k marks were record attempts -- they were just competitions. For example, Farah's PR is just a couple seconds slower than Rupp's and was set at the 2011 Pre meet which was his breakout race, but it was a real race. Don't think anyone believes that Farah couldn't run at least 10 seconds faster had he been inclined to. Also, bear in mind that Africans basically run for money. The track 10k is a non-paying race since so few of them are run. The 5k is the money race, so no surprise that pretty much every athlete on the list has a faster track 5k time than Rupp.

Yeah like his 10000m silver and rio marathon bronze. He really dropped off... Lol I'm sorry but you are dead wrong.