Spain/France COVID Cases are Up, Deaths are Wayyyyyy Down

rekrunner wrote:

Monkeys typing wrote:

Still looking for a response on this.

Ok, here's one.

Regardless if 600,000 or 900,000 is accurate, is it a valid method to compare 2020 to 2017, and

attempt to project number of deaths to the end of the year?

Side note: Was 2017 also a more than average deadly year? What is it about the current US president that is so deadly?

All the sources I've found say that excess deaths in the USA since Feb-March 2020 are above 200,000:

https://www.sciencealert.com/2020-has-killed-up-to-200-000-extra-people-in-the-us-so-farhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090324v5.full.pdf+htmlhttps://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

Here is what the CDC says excess deaths are:

To calculate excess deaths requires a comparison to what would have occurred if COVID-19 had not existed. Obviously, it's not possible to observe what didn't happen, but it is possible to estimate it using historical data.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does this using a statistical model, based on the previous three years of mortality data, incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments for data-reporting delays.

Bunch of nonsense.

WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020.

You know, real numbers. Not "what would have occurred absent Covid" "incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments" "using s statistical model"

What you're asking for is what they are providing. They estimate against the typical deaths seasonally over a number of years. You can see the graph of them doing it. This year is definitely higher in deaths even if you don't want to buy their predicted excess deaths and just go off of raw data.

Whodunit wrote:

WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020.

You know, real numbers. Not "what would have occurred absent Covid" "incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments" "using s statistical model"

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

What you're asking for is what they are providing. They estimate against the typical deaths seasonally over a number of years. You can see the graph of them doing it. This year is definitely higher in deaths even if you don't want to buy their predicted excess deaths and just go off of raw data.

Nope.

Here is what we need to see: "WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020."

Can you show me where this is?

Whodunit wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

What you're asking for is what they are providing. They estimate against the typical deaths seasonally over a number of years. You can see the graph of them doing it. This year is definitely higher in deaths even if you don't want to buy their predicted excess deaths and just go off of raw data.

Nope.

Here is what we need to see: "WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020."

Can you show me where this is?

If by WE, you mean me, I don't need to see this data.

If YOU need to see it, you can find weekly deaths at the CDC website.

Whodunit wrote:

I looked at the charts....very easy to read ....

What is the truth then, with specificity?

Can you demonstrate your chart reading comprehension then, by providing us with the numbers you can easily read from the charts?

What are the values you found for Spain and France two months ago?

What are the values you found for Spain and France today?

What is the result of dividing the values today over the values two months ago, for Spain and France?

Precious Roy wrote:

Sweden is considering new restrictions after positive cases surge.

According to Bloomberg. According to this guy on the 'ground':

----

When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with people. Maybe one in a

hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to

normal. If you look at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn’t a single

mention of covid anywhere. As I write this (19th September 2020) the front pages of the two

main tabloids have big spreads about arthritis and pensions. Apparently arthritis and

pensions are currently more exciting than covid-19 in Sweden.

.

.

.

Since March, the Emergency Room where I work has been divided in to a “covid” section and

a “non-covid” section. Anyone with a fever, cough, or sore throat has ended up in the covid

section, and we’ve been required to wear full personal protective equipment when

interacting with patients in that section. Last Wednesday the hospital shut down the covid

section. So few true cases of covid are coming through the Emergency Room that it no

longer makes sense to have a separate section for covid.

_____

and people like you are brushing off actually LIVING life.

life is short, play hard

YOLO

Whodunit wrote:

Here is what the CDC says excess deaths are:

To calculate excess deaths requires a comparison to what would have occurred if COVID-19 had not existed. Obviously, it's not possible to observe what didn't happen, but it is possible to estimate it using historical data.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does this using a statistical model, based on the previous three years of mortality data, incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments for data-reporting delays.

Bunch of nonsense.

WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020.

You know, real numbers. Not "what would have occurred absent Covid" "incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments" "using s statistical model"

Yes, dummy, they estimate it using a statistical model.

Look I know its hard to find things and understand things when the ideas (ie conspiracy theories) you are married to requires you to NOT find OR understand them, but the information you don't seek is readily available.

Since you will continue to deny it no matter what, it hardly makes sense for me to arrange a powerpoint presentation for you.

Monkeys typing wrote:

Whodunit wrote:

WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020.

You know, real numbers. Not "what would have occurred absent Covid" "incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments" "using s statistical model"

https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/WeeklyAllCauseDeathThrough0905.PNG

Nice chart.

What are the monthly numbers?

rekrunner wrote:

Whodunit wrote:

I looked at the charts....very easy to read ....

What is the truth then, with specificity?

Can you demonstrate your chart reading comprehension then, by providing us with the numbers you can easily read from the charts?

What are the values you found for Spain and France two months ago?

What are the values you found for Spain and France today?

What is the result of dividing the values today over the values two months ago, for Spain and France?

Let everyone look at the chart.

rekrunner wrote:

Whodunit wrote:

Nope.

Here is what we need to see: "WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020."

Can you show me where this is?

If by WE, you mean me, I don't need to see this data.

If YOU need to see it, you can find weekly deaths at the CDC website.

Not true.

Whodunit wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

What you're asking for is what they are providing. They estimate against the typical deaths seasonally over a number of years. You can see the graph of them doing it. This year is definitely higher in deaths even if you don't want to buy their predicted excess deaths and just go off of raw data.

Nope.

Here is what we need to see: "WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020."

Can you show me where this is?

Here you can see the plot of the excess deaths vs the estimated based on previous years, in time:

What else do you need?

CorrectorII wrote:

Whodunit wrote:

Nope.

Here is what we need to see: "WE need to see actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020."

Can you show me where this is?

Here you can see the plot of the excess deaths vs the estimated based on previous years, in time:

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

What else do you need?

Actual total deaths by month for say 2017-2019 and then 2020.

So you don't know how to read a plot? Good luck with that

Below are totals from 2019 and first three months of this year. You will likely have to wait a bit until you get finalized monthly death tallies from the CDC- good luck there as there website is a total mess seemingly run by someone working on their high school senior project.

2019 January 258,000

2019 February 280,000

2019 March 304,000

2019 April 299,000

2019 May 316,000

2019 June 304,000

2019 July 334,000

2019 August 342,000

2019 September 326,000

2019 October 325,000

2019 November 298,000

2019 December 309,000

========

2020 January 263,000

2020 February 243,000

2020 March 268,000

========

Here you can go to Macrotrends to get a good look at how US death totals are trending which is really the best way to understand this as you are alluding to. As anyone can see this year is little different than the trend lines of recent years.

Also important to take into account % of population when assessing death totals.

*Important to note that after 20 straight years of declining death rates that this changed in 2009. The reason for this was the recession. Since that every year has seen increases in overall death rates in the US- quite connected to economic downturns which are now a permanent feature of a declining Empire.

Absolutely nothing to do with any virii despite the screechings of the Covid fanatics who observe with a narrow lens.

Note that this year's increase in death rate will be less of an increase than 5 out of the 6 preceding years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

What you're asking for is what they are providing. They estimate against the typical deaths seasonally over a number of years. You can see the graph of them doing it. This year is definitely higher in deaths even if you don't want to buy their predicted excess deaths and just go off of raw data.

Higher in deaths than what?

Allen53 wrote:

*Important to note that after 20 straight years of declining death rates that this changed in 2009..

I find it fascinating that people are willing to accept recession for the spike in 2009 but have much harder time accepting covid for 200k excess deaths with 200k covid related deaths reported in 2020

Allen53 wrote:

Below are totals from 2019 and first three months of this year. You will likely have to wait a bit until you get finalized monthly death tallies from the CDC- good luck there as there website is a total mess seemingly run by someone working on their high school senior project.

2019 January 258,000

2019 February 280,000

2019 March 304,000

2019 April 299,000

2019 May 316,000

2019 June 304,000

2019 July 334,000

2019 August 342,000

2019 September 326,000

2019 October 325,000

2019 November 298,000

2019 December 309,000

========

2020 January 263,000

2020 February 243,000

2020 March 268,000

It would appear your numbers are fiction created by someone who isn't very good at making them look plausible.