Webb's Future is at 5000

I believe that this is the most insightful post on webb thus far.

IMHO that kid is a miler.

wasn't the '03 worlds won in the low 12:50's??? that ain't slow!

jimmy800 wrote:

you guys say it so casually- "all webb has to do is get down to 12.55"

is that all... It's not a matter of webb eating his wheaties and suddenly being able to blast out a 12.55.

Mottram will eat him for breakfast

12:55 is quite a reasonable time for Webb to shoot for. For next season even. Now if he was primarily a 5k guy and he's run a slew of 5k races over the years then I'd say 15 seconds is a big gap to make up. But for a guy who only runs the 5k once or twice on the track per season and he's only 22. 12:55 is quite likely if he keeps at it. Faster even.

So, Goucher didn't end up running the fastest U.S. 5k time this year after all. I'm not jabbing Goucher...he had a great season it is wonderful to see him back in good form.

But, Lagat has run faster this year and and Webb was close (not sure who actually ran faster...have to go back and look). So, Goucher's predicition did not turn out to be true after all. However, that is a pretty damn good top-3 Americans at 5K -- Lagat (12:55), Goucher (13:10), and Webb (13:10).

It has been a great summer of track and field.

Hoovis

read the runnersworld interview with goucher. he said he was really prodded by the journalist (while tired after a race) to say something kind of out there. and he said since he was more pissed off about his performance at usa's and wanted to get the journalist of his back.

Mottram runs 90-120mpw with workouts and Webb runs 50-80mpw with workouts, there is still some room for improvement.

Webb does have significant room for improvement in the 5K.

As for the 800 he ran what, 2 or 3 of these. One was in cold weather in england, I believe, and 1 was in a downpour of rain somewhere else in europe. he had one quality 800 this year and everybody is blasting him for not running a pr?

Webb has been doing nothing this year but most assuredly concentrating on his STRENGTH.

Strength is what wins/gets you through heats in WC and OLYMPICS and Webb stated himself he went for it in the final and it wasn't there, THIS TIME.

If you don't believe Webb when he says he will be back in the next WC WITH the STRENGTH you are making a fool of yourself early. He will continue to build a strength base in '06 and start to strip it away in the summer/fall of '07.

Webb is on a plan to win in '08 in China, not in some 800m race in Europe in an off and somewhat irrelevant year.

As for next year, Webb will toy with the 5K and throw a sick 12:50 out there.

You think Webb can't string 4:15. 4:15, 4:15, etc to run a 12:50? When he aims for it the 5K American record is his, regardless of what Lagat does.

Like the other poster said, shut up and just enjoy watching this young man run!

Webb's kick will improve with time. It took Steve Ovett a long time to develop his killer finish in a fast race. Webb reminds me a lot of Ovett.

didnt goucher say "ill run faster than all those guys by the end of the year" which has nothing to do with webb and lagat as I believe he was referring to the men who beat him in the 5k at US nats, which obviously webb and lagat did not run.

Hoovis 2 wrote:

So, Goucher didn't end up running the fastest U.S. 5k time this year after all.

Technically, wasn't Goucher talking about the guys in the USATF 5K field??

“I honestly didn't think anybody could beat me,” Goucher said. “I'll run faster than all of these guys by the end of the summer, guarantee it.

goucher said wrote:

didnt goucher say "ill run faster than all those guys by the end of the year" which has nothing to do with webb and lagat as I believe he was referring to the men who beat him in the 5k at US nats, which obviously webb and lagat did not run.

Sorry...I actually repeated what you said. Only I said it better. :)

genug wrote:

You think Webb can't string 4:15. 4:15, 4:15, etc to run a 12:50? When he aims for it the 5K American record is his, regardless of what Lagat does.

Like the other poster said, shut up and just enjoy watching this young man run!

UM, not to nit pick your post, but 12:50 is much faster than 4:15 pace.

undaunted wrote:

Webb reminds me a lot of Ovett.

Why? Because they are both bald and ugly?

It seems to me that Webb is talented enough to do either.

1500 (which he will focus on):

A couple of years of healthy running - perhaps with some increased mileage - and he will be able to finish a 1500 with or in front of "the kickers." He'll also be more ready to handle a fast pace.

5000 (if he went this way):

A couple of years of healthy running, increased mileage and more racing at this distance and he would be a serious championship threat. No? The American record holder? Admittedly thereare MANY questions and unknowns due to his lack of experience at this level.

I don't see what there is to be critical of (much less bash) when considering Webb's talent, progress or future.

Wyco Loco wrote:

genug wrote:

You think Webb can't string 4:15. 4:15, 4:15, etc to run a 12:50? When he aims for it the 5K American record is his, regardless of what Lagat does.

Like the other poster said, shut up and just enjoy watching this young man run!

UM, not to nit pick your post, but 12:50 is much faster than 4:15 pace.

I wasn't being exact but webb can certainly run miles at 4:05 pace, back-to-back-to-back, then add on apprx 200m at 15 sec pace, which would lead him to a 5K in what? 4:05 + 4:05 = 8:10 + 4:05 = 12:15 + 30 = 12:45.

genug wrote:

webb can certainly run miles at 4:05 pace, back-to-back-to-back, then add on apprx 200m at 15 sec pace, which would lead him to a 5K in what? 4:05 + 4:05 = 8:10 + 4:05 = 12:15 + 30 = 12:45.

Maybe, but probably not. I don't see Webb running 5K at a faster clip than his 2-mile national record.

Just foolin' wit ya wrote:

undaunted wrote:

Webb reminds me a lot of Ovett.

Why? Because they are both bald and ugly?

That too, they look remarkably similar.

ttc wrote:Note on the 1500m though: I'm not convinced that Webb's kick is subpar. Almost anyone who runs so aggressively from the gun is not going to finish in 24-25 seconds. He's a 3:32 runner trying to run 3:27. Willis is supposed to have a great kick, and he does. But it's a different story when the pace is sizzling.

Even Webb's Olympic and WC prelims with less than stellar finishes were from either getting bumped/stopped or not being aware. He won a slow USATF's super comfortably over 2 guys who rely on their kicks and got down to the lower 3:30's. I say Webb's kick isn't proven....either way.

Precisely!

Webb has been running positive splits in every major race, coming through in ~1:52, already backing up by the 3/4 in ~2:51 and simply hanging on by his fingernails. Even his splits in the two-mile at Pre were 4:01/4:10. He ain't gonna close fast in a deuce coming through in 4:01. No way. He's not in 8:00 shape.

Were he to go something like 58.0-57.5(1:55.5)-57.0(2:52.5), I wouldn't be surprised at all if he spit out a 55-56 last lap with a 26-high/27-low last 200 for ~3:47/48. But the way he's running negates closing fast. We simply don't know how he would close because he hasn't run his races in a manner that makes it possible.

And on the comments about his 800 this year, I think there is a reason for that. His 8:11, 3:48 and 13:10 are all within fractions of a second of within each other on the equivalents. That's three different distances run in three different months, all spot on what would be the equivalent. That's hard to do, especially with the shortest distance sandwiched by the longer distances on either side. Not like he went 5,000/two-mile/mile over a span of six weeks. He went two-mile/mile/5000 over the span of about twelve weeks or so. That's two very different seasons.

Adding in the slower 800 times this year makes me think there may have been shift in his training this year that is more strength oriented. But I think conditions and races may have also conspired to keep the 800 times up.

I suspect that this year he trained through the summer more as a 1500/5000 runner. I recall in high school the 400 workout he did right before he bombed his 3:53; something like 6 x 400 in 53-54. That's an 800 speed-endurance workout, basically running 400's at 800 race pace. I'm betting workouts like that weren't used this much summer, if at all. Instead, I have a hunch he trained more along the 1500/5000 line and used his 800 races as his underdistance sharpening without a lot of regard for the outcome.

Why should Webb run any more then 50-80 miles

per week when that has been working excellant

for him? If he raises it to 100-120 miles/week

it might make him go backwards, get injured, or

suffer fatigue.

I say that he will contiune at the mileage that

has been successful for him since grade 12; but

will up the intensity of all of his workouts.

Pursuant to whether he is a 5k runner or a Miler...

he is both! This is what he can do:

4:08...8:16...12:24...12:55. Thats possible next

summer or the one after if he stays healthy.

Q