Do you know track? What's your 3K PB? When he sets WR will you go into hiding? Did he steal money from you? How can you be negative against one of the sports brightest young stars?
You asked some questions rekrunner! Are you too lazy to find the answers yourself?
Just from the top of my head I can tell you:
a. Steve Cram held the U17 "WR" in the mile for almost 40 years (guess who broke it at age 16?)
As far as I remember Crams time at 17 was 3:57.?? His early age group record didn´t prevent him from having an "OK" senior career, including improving his mile time from age 17 with around 11 seconds breaking the senior WR!
b. Kenenisa Bekele held the U20 WR in the 3000m at age 19. His time was 7:30.??
This didn´t prevent Bekele from becoming one of the greats of all time, including improving his above 3000m time with around 5 seconds.
I will think about some more examples.
Can you find some examples which go the other way?
...
Here is a little follow up:
c. Steve Owett: U20 European 800m winner. Later several senior WRs
d. N. Morceli: U20 silver in 1500m at 17. Later many WRs.
e. Gebrselassie: Double U20 gold medallist in 5000m and 10.000m. 27!? senior WRs!
f. Alan Webb: fastest highscool mile at 18 at 3:53.?? Later Area record holder in 3:46.?? with around 7.5 seconds improvement.
g. Mo Farah: U20 European champion in the 5000m. Multiple Olympic and Worlds gold medallist and 1 hour WR holder.
h. Eliud Kipchoge: U20 WR holder in the 5000m and U20 gold medallist in cross. Several WRs in the marathon.
Now it is your turn!
I appreciate the research, but I was talking about successful teenage age-group world record holders generally holding that world record holding streak through the ages, eventually achieving overall world records.
The motivation for this angle is wondering if Jakob running faster than El G at age 19 should be considered an indication that he will run faster than El G before his career is over.
There is your first counter-example -- El G, someone who does not feature in U20 world record lists.
I'm aware that many junior Gold and Silver medalists went on to have a successful career as seniors, but someone like Mo Farah, who never set age group world records in the 5000m or 10000m at any age would be out of scope.
Similarly, I would consider Alan Webb a counter-example on an American scale, beating Jim Ryun's high-school mile record, but unable to set the American record in the more frequently run 1500m (the mile seems like "cheating" for this purpose, given the transition to metric), and later even being passed by Centrowitz, who also does not feature on U20 lists.
Do you know track? What's your 3K PB? When he sets WR will you go into hiding? Did he steal money from you? How can you be negative against one of the sports brightest young stars?
Ooooh Billy, Billy, Billy, Billy, Billy, Billy.
I do know track.
I don't believe I've ever run 3000m for time in my life.
I have been lurking here at letsrun since 2005 -- I don't see myself hiding if he sets a WR.
If it happens, and it happens that I'm still here, I will be among the first to congratulate his performance.
He did not steal money from me.
I'm sure I've said that 3:28.68 and 7:27.05 are great performances -- both of these put him in the top-10 all time. If not, I've just said it now.
I am not being negative, but a realist, when I respect that the world records are still substantially faster than 3:28.68 and 7:27.05, and recognize that Jakob's fastest times are in races where he took second.
I do enjoy your posts. Just think that a young runner with 3:38 and 7:27 to his name can get to WR level. Having competed in track I find his times amazing and I don't believe in putting negative energy out into the world when we can all celebrate the greatness of a young runner.
I don't see him improving a lot. Actually he hardly improved this year. But the Monaco track improved.
I'd quibble with this a lot. He's improved a lot this season. He's gone from being something like 1-1.5 seconds slower than Cheruiyot to more like .2-.6. He's run two 3:30s including one that was a solo effort. His PB is obviously improved from Monaco in a race that wasn't set up for him (he had to lead the second pack). His competitive record has him only losing at 1500 to Tim, as opposed to last year when he lost to Filip, Musagala, Lewandowski, Souleiman. Sure some of these guys have been absent on the circuit, but he's been well-clear of strong competition like McSewyn and Wightman.
Also, I'm not sure why people are trying to move him up to 5,000 or 10,000. The two Ugandans are young and ascendant, and there are some strong Ethiopians established with good Kenyans in the pipeline. Meanwhile in the 1500, he is a clear no. 2 in the World with some of his best competition at the back-end (Souleiman, Lewandowski, Makhloufi, Centrowitz) or missing (Manangoi).
Nice to finally read someone with an understanding of the sport. It would be completely stupid to move him up, whene there are two guys (Cheptegei and Kiplimo) who are untouchable for him and might stay so for the next 5-10 years.
To bad Vegas didn't have a betting pull for this because my $10,000 bet would have been worth $50,000 To $200,000 depending on the odds. I was not even surprised I figured Jakob would run 7:27 or faster. Jakob and Creppa will be the next To run under 12:50.
I don't think so:
a) I don't see Crippa running sub 12:50 (soon)
b) I think that someone else win run sub 12:50 before either of those two will
To bad Vegas didn't have a betting pull for this because my $10,000 bet would have been worth $50,000 To $200,000 depending on the odds. I was not even surprised I figured Jakob would run 7:27 or faster. Jakob and Creppa will be the next To run under 12:50.
Did you mean Crippa? Could be, but I don't know how in the world you would not pick McSweyn way ahead of Crippa?? Crippa and Foppen are in a similar ballpark.
Next year I could see Jakob- 12:44, McSweyn- 12:48, Crippa- 12:57, Foppen- 12:59
Please stop trolling Ghost ...
Foppen is in a completely different ballpark, please finally stop hyping random european scrubs.
I do enjoy your posts. Just think that a young runner with 3:38 and 7:27 to his name can get to WR level. Having competed in track I find his times amazing and I don't believe in putting negative energy out into the world when we can all celebrate the greatness of a young runner.
I'm being positive and realistic.
We can be positive and celebrate greatness without talking about WRs.
I already said these were great top-10 performances.
Jakob surely has several more years of great performances ahead of him, if he can avoid inuries.
Nevertheless, the reality is that the WR records of 3:26 and 7:20.67 remain significant gaps to close, that very few before him managed to approach.
You can't run a 3:25 without being capable of 1:43 or faster, probably 1:42.
Jakob can't do that, because Gjert can't teach him how, because Gjert doesn't even know how. Jakob has been trained to bounce along at ~180 cadence as fast as possible. It's not possible at WR pace, you have to sprint at least part of the way, all Jakob can do is bounce harder.
So for Jakob to improve 2.69 seconds in the 1500, he needs to be 3,5 seconds faster in the 800?
Time for a bemp!!
Well, at the time of this writing, his PR is 1:46 from 2020, - the good old days of this thread.
But I honestly believe he can do sub 1:45 now, and this is without focusing hardly at all on 800m.
I've wondered, on another (failed) thread, what his 800m potential might be. Because I agree that if he is ever going to do 3:25.99 (which I think he can conceivably try to do by age 24/25), he needs to be a 1:43 guy.
I know some will say "But Lagat only did 1:46, and El G etc etc", but 800m POTENTIAL is what I'm interested in. I don't believe that Lagat/El G and several others ever showed their 800m potential. It was not a priority. But PRs is one thing in a "minor" distance, and potential is another.
Nice to finally read someone with an understanding of the sport. It would be completely stupid to move him up, whene there are two guys (Cheptegei and Kiplimo) who are untouchable for him and might stay so for the next 5-10 years.
Nice to finally read someone with an understanding of the sport. It would be completely stupid to move him up, whene there are two guys (Cheptegei and Kiplimo) who are untouchable for him and might stay so for the next 5-10 years.
So for Jakob to improve 2.69 seconds in the 1500, he needs to be 3,5 seconds faster in the 800?
Time for a bemp!!
Well, at the time of this writing, his PR is 1:46 from 2020, - the good old days of this thread.
But I honestly believe he can do sub 1:45 now, and this is without focusing hardly at all on 800m.
I've wondered, on another (failed) thread, what his 800m potential might be. Because I agree that if he is ever going to do 3:25.99 (which I think he can conceivably try to do by age 24/25), he needs to be a 1:43 guy.
I know some will say "But Lagat only did 1:46, and El G etc etc", but 800m POTENTIAL is what I'm interested in. I don't believe that Lagat/El G and several others ever showed their 800m potential. It was not a priority. But PRs is one thing in a "minor" distance, and potential is another.
I believe a 1500/5000 style runner can produce a 1500 time that is quicker than double their 800m pb. So potentially 1.45 could be quick enough for a crack at the 1500 world record
Well, at the time of this writing, his PR is 1:46 from 2020, - the good old days of this thread.
But I honestly believe he can do sub 1:45 now, and this is without focusing hardly at all on 800m.
I've wondered, on another (failed) thread, what his 800m potential might be. Because I agree that if he is ever going to do 3:25.99 (which I think he can conceivably try to do by age 24/25), he needs to be a 1:43 guy.
I know some will say "But Lagat only did 1:46, and El G etc etc", but 800m POTENTIAL is what I'm interested in. I don't believe that Lagat/El G and several others ever showed their 800m potential. It was not a priority. But PRs is one thing in a "minor" distance, and potential is another.
I believe a 1500/5000 style runner can produce a 1500 time that is quicker than double their 800m pb. So potentially 1.45 could be quick enough for a crack at the 1500 world record
Double 1:45 is 3:30 which is 4 seconds behind the world record